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    Decision-making Forum
    Theoretical System of Integrated Transport Development
    ZHANG Guo-wu
    2009, 9(4): 1-9 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (640KB) ( )  

    The fifteenth conference of “Transport 7+1 Forum” sets its theme as “theoretical system of the integrated transport development”. The integrated transport system, an essential subsystem of the whole national economy system, has its own development rules and generally consists of railway, highway, waterway, air, and pipeline transport. This conference discusses relevant issues about building theoretical system of the integrated transport development. To effectively prompt integrated transport development and to train advanced talents for interegrated transport planning, construction, and management, it analyzes the curriculum design and trainning program for traffic and transportation education both in demestic and international colleges and universities. It further discusses the probable curriculum design and knowledge framework for the integrated transportation education in China. During this conference, the concept of establishing the platform with theoretical research and practical application is put forward, and some suggestions are also proposed for further development.

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    Forum about Comprehensive Transportation System
    Framework Design of Different Transportation Modes’ Energy Consumption
    Factors and Comparabilities Study
    SUN Qi -peng,WANG Qing-yun, MAO Bao-hua
    2009, 9(4): 10-14 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3910KB) ( )  
    Analyzing the different transportation modes’ energy consumption factors and establishing the comparable selection platform constitue the theoretical basis to achieve the goals as entire optimization and energy saving of the integrated transportation system. From the intrinsic requirement of the integrated transportation system, this paper reviews relevant researches from both the policy and academic aspects, and then proposes the research objectives, research system, and some key issues. It further emphasizes that the contradiction between development of integrated transportation system and limited energy resources can be solved when the comparable selection platform is established considering the development concepts and overall arrangement of the integrated transportation system. The technologic economic conditions and actural operational status of each transportation mode should be taken into account as well.
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    Evaluation of Chinese Logistics Development Period Using Spectrum Estimation
    HE Xing-dong, LIU Kai, SHAO Wei-ru
    2009, 9(4): 15-19 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (542KB) ( )  
    As an important component of macro-economy, logistics experiences certain periodic fluctuation during its development. It is important to study the regularity of logistics fluctuation and evaluate its periods theoretically and practically. In this paper, total logistics amounts are chosen as evaluation index, and artificial time series are designed to solve the shortness of statistical data in Chinese logistics. Spectrum estimation theory depicts time characteristics in frequency domain thus has such benefit than time domain methods. This paper evaluates the period of Chinese logistics using spectrum estimation. Stationarity of artificial series is verified, parameter sensitivity of truncation point is analyzed, six periods with different delay window are compared, and significance of period evaluated is tested. Result indicates that there are two fluctuating periods in Chinese logistics development at a significance level of 0.001, the long period of 15.2 years with stronger fluctuation, and the short period of 3.4 years with weaker fluctuation respectively.
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    Rent-creating and Rent-seeking Behavior of
    Agent Construction Participant for Expressway
    ZHAO Wen-yi,WANG Xuan-cang
    2009, 9(4): 20-24 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (758KB) ( )  
    To restrain rent-creating and rent-seeking behavior in the field of expressway construction, the connotation of expressway agent construction mode, the basic logics of rent-seeking theory, and the principal-agent theory in information economics are introduced. The paper develops the tripartite decision-making model with rent-creating and rent-seeking behavior of agent construction participant. It also documents mechanism model with the influence of rent-creating and rent-seeking behavior on agent construction participant. Analysis results show that condition of rent-seeking behavior of owner has no relationship with the rent-creating benefit, namely, the rent-seeking cost of construction-agent. The governmental supervision department can decrease expected benefit of rent-seeking and rent-creating of owner and construction-agent by enlargement of supervision strength and punishment strength. From the point of view of construction-agent, the rent-creating behavior of owner influences the deputy cost and causes decrease of expected benefit of construction-agent and owner, which cannot influence the optimal sharing coefficient of construction-agent to investment surplus.
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    Co-integration Analysis of Airport Passenger Flow and
    Regional Development
    HUANG Jia,WANG Qing-yun,LIU Jian
    2009, 9(4): 25-29 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (687KB) ( )  
    To optimize airport planning, resources utilization and regional development, it is necessary to have a thorough understanding of the whole air transport industry—its law of development and co-relationship with the local social and economic development. This paper uses a co-integration approach to analyze the possible relationship between the increase of the airport passenger volume and the development of the local economy. An empirical study has been made based on the passenger flow in the Capital International Airport, regional GDP of Beijing, as well as the total value of both import and export. The paper focuses on the correlation between these time-series data. The result of the numerical fitting demonstrates the effectiveness of the method and provides valuable reference for airport planning and urban design.
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    Intelligent Transportation System and Information Technology
    Optimization of One-way Traffic Organization for Urban Micro-circulation Transportation Network
    SHI Feng, HUANG En-hou,CHEN Qun,WANG Ying-zi
    2009, 9(4): 30-35 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (728KB) ( )  
    To effectively alleviate traffic pressure of urban arterial roads, optimizing one-way traffic organization is the key to bring micro-circulation transportation network into full play. Aiming at reducing the saturation of arterial roads and micro-circulation roads, the paper develops the bi-level programming model for optimizing one-way traffic organization with consideration of the maximum saturation restriction. The decision-making variable of the upper level programming is the scheme of one-way traffic organization of branch roads and the optimization targets are to minimize the average saturation of arterial roads and to minimize the excess of saturation over its maximum of arterial roads. The lower level programming is an equilibrium traffic assignment problem under the restrictions of the capacity of arterial roads and branch roads and the maximum saturation. The genetic algorithm is adopted to solve the model. The traffic conditions of arterial roads and micro-circulation roads before and after optimizing of one-way traffic organization were compared by an example, which also proves the effectiveness of one-way traffic organization of micro-circulation network. The proposed model provides an optimization method for one-way traffic organization of micro-circulation network.
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    Rewiew of Urban Traffic Signal Control Methods to Alleviate Traffic Congestion
    ZHAO Dong-bin, CHEN Yang-zhou, YI Jian-qiang
    2009, 9(4): 36-45 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1547KB) ( )  
    This paper aims at providing valuable references for managers’ decision-making as well as researchers and engineers’ further researches with a comprehensive survey on urban city traffic signal control. Urban transportation system in China is different from other countries, as it is a complex mixed system which is composed of surface way network, expressway network, and their integration—expressway ramps, running mixed traffic flow of vehicles, bikes, and pedestrians. Therefore, the urban traffic control system is a large complex nonlinear system which poses many new problems and challenges for traffic signal control methods. This paper extensively analyzes the research development of traffic signal control methods in surface way and freeway networks, and introduces the current and potential issues of the management of traffic congestions happening in the networks.
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    Network-Wide Traffic State Observation and Analysis Method Using Pseudo-Color Map
    DUAN Hou-li, LI Zhi-heng, LI Li, ZHANG Yi, YIN Sheng-chao
    2009, 9(4): 46-52 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1049KB) ( )  
    A novel algorithm is proposed in this paper to meet the demand of urban traffic control and management for network-wide traffic states observation and analysis. Urban traffic network is mapped to a pseudo-color image with pixels corresponding to grids. The colors of pixels represent the corresponding grids’ states values so that this pseudo-color image vividly represents the macroscopic traffic state. The Otsu algorithm is used to find the congested regions automatically. The evolutionary patterns of traffic state are determined by calculating and analyzing the optical flow field of consecutive pseudo-color images. A case study of Beijing macroscopic traffic state observation and analysis is also presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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    Design of Real-Time Train Movement Information Interface Based on Serial Communication
    ZHOU Fang-ming, MAO Bao-hua, BAI Yun, DING Yong
    2009, 9(4): 53-58 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (826KB) ( )  
    To insure the safety of the train, every locomotive is installed with train supervise and record device, TAX2 monitor and control device, which monitor the train movement and acquire real-time train information. Meanwhile, these real-time train information is necessary condition for designing other kinds of train on-board systems. This paper presents a feasible interface which can approach the real-time train data representing the states of the train with the support of serial communication. It also introduces the related hardware connection methods and software programming which adopts the Windows multi-threaded programming. With consideration of the existence of the changing of the milestone and basic line, an algorithm is proposed to recognize the route changing and correct the data error, and then the data error ratio is down to 0.02%. Based on that the reliable connection between the train on-board system and the existed monitor and control devices are well conducted.
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    FIPA-Based Intelligent Parking Service Environment
    WANG Long-fei,CHEN Hong, LI Yang, SHAO Hai-peng
    2009, 9(4): 59-65 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (824KB) ( )  
    To provide the drivers with better parking services and ensure the balance between supply and demand, a new approach for constructing intelligent parking service environment is proposed, which composes of parks, cars, and parking information service center (PISC). Based on the distributed control theory, a city is divided into a number of districts and each of which is equiped with a PISC. The PISC is implemented based on an extended FIPA architecture using mobile agent, message queue, agent container, and agent execution environment. It makes full use of the interoperability of FIPA standards and the flexibility of mobile agent. The agents in the service environment can automatically execute park searching, price negotiation, space booking and routes guidance without the intervention of drivers and parks. Besides, a negotiation algorithm using time-driven bidding mechanism is also introduced to the whole parking price negotiation process between car and park agents. Simulation result indicates that the prolonged predetermined negotiation time makes the negotiation times increased and the algorithm’s convergence speed reduced.
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    Filtering of Travel Time Outliers
    LIU Hao, ZHANG Ke, VAN ZUYLEN Henk
    2009, 9(4): 66-71 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (798KB) ( )  
    With the wide application of license plate matching technology, travel times can be measured with high accuracy. However, there exist tremendous outliers in the raw data due to many reasons. The raw data can be utilized unless the outliers are filtered out. First, this paper investigates the causes of outliers’ production. Then, an overview of existing methods has been conducted to analyze potential problems with those methods. A new method, based on transport information granular computing, is proposed. An urban arterial of Delft, the Netherlands, has been selected as the test site. A comparison between the new method and existing methods has been conducted with the empirical data. The results show that the new method outperforms the existing ones.
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    Systems Engineering Theory and Methods
    Oversaturation Inherence and Traffic Diversion Effect at Urban Intersections through Simulation
    WEI Heng,PERUGU Harikishan C.
    2009, 9(4): 72-82 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1724KB) ( )  
    Conventional approaches of signal control optimization and geometric channelization may not be an inappropriate solution to an oversaturated urban intersection, especially where physical expansion is limited by the intensive land-use development around it. Traffic diversion strategy may be an optional solution; however, it is greatly dependant upon identification of the traffic movements that need diversion and the existence of parallel or accessible detour routes that are capable of accommodating the diverted traffic without bring adverse impact on the diversion routes. Obviously, these factors are difficult to be determined through analysis of the field observations alone. This paper presents a study of using simulation-based approach combined with analysis of observed data to indentify oversaturated intersection movements needed for diversion and test the traffic diversion effect in the roadways that have potential to bear the diverted traffic. The proposed approach is discussed through a practical case study at the intersection of Galbraith Avenue and Colerain Avenue (US-27), Ohio. The effect of such option is evaluated using a state-of-the-art microscopic traffic simulation system VISSIM, intersection analysis software programs, Highway Capacity Software (HCS 2000), and Synchro. The optimum percentage of traffic that is desired to be diverted at the inlet to minimize the delay while keeping shorter travel time is evaluated for the concerned intersection. The evaluation results imply a successful option that has great potential to put into practice. Finally, signage countermeasures are discussed for implementing the diversion strategy.
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    Efficiency Loss of the Multi-Class Stochastic Traffic Equilibrium Assignment with Fixed Demand
    YU Xiao-jun,HUANG Hai-jun, LIU Tian-liang
    2009, 9(4): 83-89 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (779KB) ( )  
    There exists efficiency loss when introducing a user equilibrium traffic assignment in comparison with the system optimization assignment. Seeking the upper bound of the efficiency loss has attracted many scholars’ attentions. The existing researches mainly focus on single user class and deterministic traffic assignment, few on stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) assignment with multiple user classes. In this paper, the authors investigate the upper bound of this SUE’s inefficiency. Two decision making criteria are used in the SUE, namely, time-based and monetary-based. It is shown that the upper bound of efficiency loss caused by the time-based SUE depends on the type of link travel time function, the network complexity, the travel demand, and the degree of users’ perception error to travel cost. The upper bound of efficiency loss caused by the monetary-based SUE depends on the value of time of user classes besides the aforementioned factors.
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    Optimization Method of Energy Saving Train Operation for Railway Network
    FU Yin-ping, GAO Zi-you, LI Ke-ping
    2009, 9(4): 90-96 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (830KB) ( )  
    In railway network, trains running through stations may be disturbed by trains in other lines. This paper investigates energy saving train operation under disturbance condition. According to the mathematical description of the problem and dynamic equation for train movement, the authors propose an optimization model of energy saving train operation. A changeable chromosome length genetic algorithm and table of control modes list are applied to solve the optimization problem. The simulation is carried out and the speed-position curve of disturbed train is compared with that of train which moves normally. The variation of speed with time is analyzed. Some principles for energy saving are revealed in speed-position curve and energy-position curve. At last, the simulation result is compared with that obtained by other methods. The comparison shows that the changeable chromosome length genetic algorithm is an effective method to be applied in energy saving train operation.
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    Application of Bayesian Method in Analysis of Interactions between Activity-travel Decision Behavior and TDM Policy
    JUAN Zhi-cai,ZONG Fang, LUAN Kun
    2009, 9(4): 97-102 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (805KB) ( )  
    This paper reviews the research methods of activity-travel behavior and the existing problems. By introducing Bayesian structuralized learning and parameter estimation methods, assisted by activity-based travel behavior theory, disaggregate modeling, and SP/RP data investigation method, this paper establishes an analysis framework of the interactions between travel behavior and TDM strategy, and discusses the way to improve the existing methods. It indicates that Bayesian method can fully express individual attributes and recessive non-sample information in travel behavior forecasting, and estimate some complex disaggregate models, such as MNP (muti-nomial probit). Combined with existing travel behavior analysis methods, Bayesian method makes travel behavior forecasting more accurate, comprehensive, and flexible. It can also describe interactions between activity-travel decision behavior and TDM strategy more exactly, provide theoretical basis for establishing effective TDM strategy, and alleviate contradiction of urban traffic supply and demand.
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    Walking Time Modeling on Transfer Pedestrians in Subway Passages
    DU Peng,LIU Chao, LIU Zhi-li
    2009, 9(4): 103-109 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (928KB) ( )  
    Survey and determination of the passengers’ walking time in subway passages is the basic work to realize train coordination between lines and to reduce the passengers’ waiting time in transferring.The paper focouses on the passengers’ walking time on transfer pedestrians from the statistical point of view. First, sampling method is designed based on the analysis of factors affecting walking time and five transfer stations along Line No.5 of Beijing subway is selected to conduct the sampling survey following the method. Then, it is shown by analyzing the data collected in the transfer passage from Line No.5 to Line No.1 at Dongdan station, that the probabilities of walking time of passengers follow Log-normal distribution and its expected value and standard deviation are affected remarkably by crowding. Next, equivalent distance of transferring is conceived considering the real distance of passage and different affections of facilities equipped along. Finally, regression analysis of data from 10 transferring passages shows that the expected value of passenger walking time is quadric to the equivalent distance of passage.
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    Traffic Modal Splitting Method for Economic Circle
    Based on Nested-Logit Model
    YI Fu-jun, DENG Wei, ZHOU Zhu-ping
    2009, 9(4): 110-115 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (766KB) ( )  
    With analysis of the influencing factors of traffic mode choice in economic circle, this paper developed a modal split Nested-Logit model including three indices as trip cost, travel time, and adaptability. The comfort levels of different traffic modes were described by the fatigue recovery time with calculation of the time values. Nested-Logit model is an improved and more practical model based on the multi-nomial Logit model, which considered the correlations among all the traffic modes, and could classify the similar traffic modes. A method of solving Nested-Logit model was proposed by analyzing the internal relation between the two models, which was direct and easy to operate. Thereafter, the validity and practicability of the proposed method were demonstrated by the examples of traffic modal split of several cities in the economic circle of Yangtze River Delta.
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    Gap Acceptance Capacity Model for On-Ramp Junction of Urban Freeway
    CI Yu-sheng, WU Li-na, PEI Yu-long, LING Xian-zhang
    2009, 9(4): 116-119 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (479KB) ( )  
    The commonly-used capacity calculation approaches for ramp junctions are mostly based on the American HCM method, It had been approved that the headways for vehicles following the Weibull distribution function at on-ramp junctions in urban freeway system. The paper examined the critical headway and following time by the modified drew method and the survey traffic flow data on-site. The gap-acceptance capacity calculating model was developed for on-ramp junctions of urban freeway, and the numerical integration method was used to solving the model. Finally, the capacity values were obtained in condition of different mainline design speeds and different acceleration lane lengths. The result indicated that the capacity value would grow with increase of the acceleration length and mainline design speed, and the capacity values for on-ramp junctions would approach basic freeway segments capacity values while the acceleration lengths beyond 400 meters.
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    Modeling and Reachability Analysis for Single Intersection Based on Rectangular Hybrid Automata
    JIANG Guang-xiu, CHEN Yang-zhou, ZHANG Li-guo, LI Hong-feng
    2009, 9(4): 120-126 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (778KB) ( )  
    Vehicle flow show continuous behavior and traffic light exhibit discrete event behavior, thus a rectangular hybrid automata model of a four-phase intersection is proposed in this paper. The queue lengths are considered as continuous variables to represent the vehicle flow behavior of the intersection, and the discrete event part are used to reflect the discrete characteristics traffic light. Based on the rectangular hybrid automata model, all directional vehicle flows are analyzed. A method for reachability analysis of rectangular hybrid automata is applied to examine the maximum and minimum of each queue length of the single intersection. The simulation based on toolbox CheckMate 3.6 shows that the rectangular hybrid automata model not only perfectly represents the hybrid characters of the dynamic traffic flow of the single intersection, but also verifies the efficiency of the time scheme of the traffic light.
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    Signalized Intersection Level-of-Service Model Based on Fuzzy Neural Networks
    LI Da, SHAO Chun-fu, CHEN Xiao-ming
    2009, 9(4): 127-133 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (985KB) ( )  
    This paper reviewed the existing methods for signalized intersection level-of-service (LOS). A methodology for evaluating signalized intersection LOS was developed based on fuzzy neural network model. A quantitative surveying method for the driver perceptions was also designed using visualized simulations as an auxiliary tool. The proposed methodology uses fuzzy theory to simulate how the drivers perceive a signalized intersection. It also takes advantages of neural network model to memorize the fuzzy rules to predict the driver perceptions, as well as LOS accordingly. The LOS of turning movements in mixed traffic conditions was taken for example to illustrate the methodology. Surveyed data were used to calibrate and validate the proposed model. The numerical results indicate that the proposed model has great capability to predict the driver perceptions toward LOS. The driver perceptions do not significantly correlate with vehicular capacity or volume-to-capacity ratios, but are found to be significantly influenced by these two parameters through analysis of variance. The driver perceptions depend strongly on average delay.
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    Highway Transportation Route Decision-Making of Hazardous Material in Developed Transportation Network
    MA Chang-xi, GUANG Xiao-ping,WU Fang, ZHAO Yong-chen
    2009, 9(4): 134-139 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (705KB) ( )  
    As the transport demand of hazardous material increases rapidly with the development of the economy, its potential risk imposed on the environment and humanity increases correspondingly. The transportation accident of the hazardous material always causes serious personnel casualty, long-time environmental pollution, and huge economic loss. Thus, it is rather important to ensure transportation safety by selecting the best transportation route of hazardous material. In this paper, in a relatively developed transportation network, the multiple objective decision-making model of highway transportation route is developed through minimum transportation risk, transportation time, and sensitive goal population. The three objective functions were integrated using the weighted information based on the preference information of decision-makers and integrated operator of evolution and involution. Then the optimal compromised solution was obtained using the development label algorithm. Finally, the numerical example proves the correctness and effectiveness of the model and the algorithm. This proposed method is helpful for determining the best transportation route under developed transportation network environment.
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    Two-Phase Algorithm for Dynamic Distribution Vehicle Schedulinging Problem
    LANG Mao-xiang
    2009, 9(4): 140-144 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (711KB) ( )  
    The effective solving algorithm for dynamic distribution vehicle scheduling problem is studied. On the basis of analyzing the dynamic factors of vehicles in physical distribution, the paper proposed a new dynamic distribution vehicle scheduling problem considering vehicles’ malfunction and multi-circular distribution. With describing this problem briefly, a two-phase solving strategy is put forward, namely, the first phase for making optimal distribution plan and the second phase for real time optimal scheduling. Then a two-phase algorithm for the problem is designed and implemented. The tabu search algorithm is used in the first phase and the local search algorithm is used in the second phase. In this way, the powerful global searching ability of tabu search algorithm and the high convergence speed of the local search algorithm are fully utilized. The effectiveness of this algorithm is finally demonstrated by experimental computations.
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    Cases Analysis
    Traffic Countermeasures Research for Guangzhou City in Traffic Mode Transferring Period after “Motorcycle Forbidden Ban” Effect
    DENG Xing-dong,XU Jian-min, WANG Bo
    2009, 9(4): 145-150 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (846KB) ( )  
    In view of the increasingly serious traffic problems caused by motorcycle, several large and medium-sized cities in China implemented motorcycle forbidden ban. Taking Guzngzhou city as an example, the paper summarizes major characteristics of the traffic mode transferring period. Meanwhile, the travel volumes transfering from motorcycle to other modes are estimated and the changes of resident’s travel mode choice are analysed. Then, the existing problems of urban traffic are pionted out from the aspects such as public transit, motocycle travel, freight transport, and taxi transport. Finally, the applicable countermeasures are put forward to solve the problems existed in the the period of the traffic mode transferring. The countermeasures research in this paper provides references for the traffic planning and policy making both in Guangzhou and other similar cities.
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    Study on the Forecast of the Passenger Flow to Beijing Capital Airport by Airport Express Line and Its Operation Plan
    NIE Lei, GAO Yi, SHE Liang
    2009, 9(4): 151-158 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (976KB) ( )  
    To improve the operations and connections of the Capital International Airport Express, this paper ameliorates the prediction methods based on the multimodal network, which makes it possible to quantify transfer and connection between different transportation modes, after analyzing the passenger composition on the capital airport express line. Then, the passenger flow is forecasted by TransCAD. In the process of forecasting, the different requirements such as time, costs, and comfort of different income level of passengers are considered through establishing a broad function of time. According to the forecasted passenger flow, the paper designs the operating interval of the Airport Express Line in peak and non-peak hours, and the size of car park at Dongzhimen transfer hub, which provides a valuable suggestion for the rapid collection and distribution of the passenger flow to the Capital Airport.
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    Framework of “One Road One Line with Straight Driving” Public Transportation System
    GUO Zhi-yong, WANG Wei, CHEN Xue-wu
    2009, 9(4): 159-165 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (931KB) ( )  
    The public transportation priority strategy is the most effective way to solve the urban traffic problems. In view of the existing problems of traditional public transportation system, such as unreasonable overall network arrangement and stop location, low-level service and operation, the paper proposes a new mode of public transportation system—one road one line with straight driving. Based on analyzing the defination and characteristics of the proposed mode, the paper establishes its framework, which consists of the adaptability of the new mode, passenger flow analysis, layout of network, stops, transfer nodes, transit signal priority, intelligent public transportation dispatching, and so on. Finally, the paper advances several key technologies about this mode.
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    Optimization and Application of Daily Volume Forecasting Methods for Freeway Extension Sections
    CHEN Wen-qiang,WU Qun-qi
    2009, 9(4): 166-169 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (446KB) ( )  
    To estimate the trends of traffic volume of freeway expansion more accurately, a time series model was developed based on the time-series curve fitting of highway network traffic. The identified and detailed time-series model was also formulated according to highway network traffic impact factor combined with ACF and PACF Legend. Then, the paper estimated the parameters and diagnosised the model by the Logistic regression and ARIMA technology. The results indicated that the proposed model with ARIMA and Logistic regression was more accurate than traditional models, and the average error is 1.53%.
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    Optimization and Application of Daily Volume Forecasting Methods for Freeway Extension Sections
    CHEN Wen-qiang,WU Qun-qi
    2009, 9(4): 166-169 . 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (446KB) ( )  
    To estimate the trends of traffic volume of freeway expansion more accurately, a time series model was developed based on the time-series curve fitting of highway network traffic. The identified and detailed time-series model was also formulated according to highway network traffic impact factor combined with ACF and PACF Legend. Then, the paper estimated the parameters and diagnosised the model by the Logistic regression and ARIMA technology. The results indicated that the proposed model with ARIMA and Logistic regression was more accurate than traditional models, and the average error is 1.53%.
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