Abstract: To optimize airport planning, resources utilization and regional development, it is necessary to have a thorough understanding of the whole air transport industry—its law of development and co-relationship with the local social and economic development. This paper uses a co-integration approach to analyze the possible relationship between the increase of the airport passenger volume and the development of the local economy. An empirical study has been made based on the passenger flow in the Capital International Airport, regional GDP of Beijing, as well as the total value of both import and export. The paper focuses on the correlation between these time-series data. The result of the numerical fitting demonstrates the effectiveness of the method and provides valuable reference for airport planning and urban design.

Key words: airport passenger flow, regional development, time series, co-integration analysis

摘要： 准确的认识航空运输业的发展规律，深入研究它与所在地区之间的社会经济发展关系，对于民航业规划目标的制定和完善，以及民航运输对地区经济的促进和带动作用都有着重要的意义。本文采用一个协整分析模型定量分析了机场的民航客运量增长和地区经济发展之间可能存在的相互关系，并以首都国际机场和北京地区的相关经济发展数据为例进行了实证研究，分析了首都机场客流量与北京地区的生产总值，以及地区进出口总额这些时间序列数据之间的相关性。计算结果验证了方法的有效性，说明了民航运输事业的发展与地区经济快速增长之间的紧密联系，也为今后的民航客运发展规划和地区经济建设提供了有用的参考信息。

关键词: 机场客流, 地区发展, 时间序列, 协整分析