Abstract: The passenger flow forecasting which determines the scale of rail transit is important to guarantee the scientific, rational and feasible rail transit construction. The availability of previous methods for intercity passenger flow forecasting is distinct. A combination of three-time attraction and passenger transfer theory is proposed in this paper and the transfer rate can be obtained by distance analysis learned from statistical theory. The general distance dissimilarities matrix is gained according to the factor influencing the transfer passenger flow. Then, the transfer rate of passenger flow is obtained within the bounds of threetime attraction of rail transit. Therefore, the objected passenger flow is forecasted. The example with field data of one city illustrates the advantages of the proposed method: simple, feasible and applicable.

Key words: integrated transportation, transfer passenger forecasting, passenger transfer theory, rail transit, distance dissimilarities

摘要： 科学准确地预测轨道交通客流量，超前掌握轨道交通客流量发展的趋势、特点、规律和数量，是制定轨道交通客运发展和站场配置规划的基础.现有轨道交通客流预测方法对于城际轨道交通客流预测的适应性各不相同，本文采用三次吸引法和客流转移理论相结合，并借鉴统计学中距离分析思想，确定客流转移率，从而获得转移客流量.具体做法是：在分析客流量转移的影响因素基础上，建立广义不相似距离矩阵，以此在轨道交通三次吸引范围内分别确定各种交通方式客流量转移率，从而获得规划年轨道交通客流量.通过某一城市的实际数据进行了算例分析，该方法简单、可操作性强、具有工程应用价值.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 转移客流量预测, 客流转移理论, 轨道交通, 距离不相似测度