Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

Integrated Transport and SocialEconomic Development: Integrated Transport Outlook in the 12th Five-Years

ZHANG Guo-Wu

2012, 12(1): 1-11.

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The growth of transportation has strong relationship with the social and economic development. The past 11th five-years have witnessed the tremendous changes of every transport mode. However, the rapid economic growth still cannot completely meet residents’ demands in China. The 25th conference of “Traffic and Transportation Forum 7+1” is around the issue of “integrated transport and social-economic development”. It reviews the achievements in the 11th fiveyears and prospects the future trend of transport. The goal and task of the integrated transport development in the 12th five-years is outlined, together with the relevant policies and measures in terms of infrastructures, technical installations and transportation services. The programs are discussed for regional transport, inter-city transport, urban transport, rural transport and integrated transportation hubs, the interaction between social economy and integrated transport is analyzed as well. The holding of the conference lays the foundation for the integrated transport development in the 12th five-years to some extent.

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Social Impact Assessment of Non-operational Transportation Projects from Key Stakeholder Perspective

GAO Xi-Zhen, HOU Chun-Mei

2012, 12(1): 12-16.

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Social impact assessment is an important part of transport project planning. It is the main paradigms of project social impact assessment to identify project stakeholders, analyze stakehdders’ demands and evaluate the satisfaction of stakeholders demand after project implementation. However, because of many stakeholders of public projects, the interest conflict between different stakeholders is commonly existed. It is difficult to get a definitive social impact assessment conclusion. Therefore, the interests of different categories stakeholders should be treated differently. In this paper, the key stakeholders of non-operational transportation projects are identified by the contract theory. Based on the social equity objectives, the non-operational transportation project key stakeholders are classified from two dimensions of the ability in acquiring information and bargaining. Through the analysis on key stakeholders demand, the paper proposes the detailed content of the social impact assessment for the non-operating transport projects.

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Optimization of Mixed Collaborative Distribution with Different Production Modes

ZHANG Lei, KONG Yan-Yan

2012, 12(1): 17-23.

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Considering different production modes caused by characteristic differences of market demands of new and old productions, the mixed collaborative distribution of perishable new and old electronic products under different production modes is studied in this paper. First, the demand function with price of different consumer surplus is presented by considering the oneway substitute of old products by new ones. Then, the mixed collaborative distribution function model is developed according to the composition of response time under different production modes. Second, the 0-1 mixed integer nonlinear optimization model with profitmaximization as objective function is proposed to optimize the production and mixed distribution of new and old products under different modes. In the last section, the sales price, production scale, distribution mode, and other decision variables are determined through solution.

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On Children Traffic Safety Education and Its Effectiveness

GAO Yue-尔, WANG Xue-Song, CHEN Xiao-Hong

2012, 12(1): 24-28.

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The children within 3 to 6 years old are exposed in traffic environment on the way to school, thus they become disadvantaged groups in traffic environment. This study investigates five kindergartens in Shanghai, Linyi and Binzhou in Shandong province of China to learn the current traffic safety education situations for children. The results reveal that the contents of the traffic safety education are too general and the major methods only contain reading relevant books and watching videos. To put more specific traffic safety education for children into practice, this paper combines the characteristics of children with their main transport modes, and analyzes the contents of traffic safety education of school. Meanwhile, it tests better traffic safety equipments for children education by means that children pick their favorite traffic safety equipments by themselves. It is found that, compared with traffic safety books, children prefer traffic safety chess. The research is of great value for carrying out the traffic safety education in kindergarten.

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Optimal Signal timing Solution Based on Dividing Vehicle Flows

LUO Jing, YAN Yue-Hua, WANG Dong-Liang

2012, 12(1): 29-35.

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Compared with traditional approaches that focus on adjusting traffic signals according to vehicle flows, the proposed solution divides the vehicles running on the key route into several flows. Each flow moves with a designed speed is regarded as a vehicle group. When individual vehicle group reaches a traffic signal, the green light ensures all the vehicles in the group smoothly passing through the intersection. After that, the signal turns to red light and let the vehicles on the crossed-direction pass the intersection before the arrival of the next vehicle group. The vehicles in the designed group can avoid all the red lights and do not need to stop on halfway, their speed will almost be doubled. The paper presents vehicle flow division, the rules of safe driving, and the signaltiming. The feasibility and advantages of the approach are also illustrated by an experiment.

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Spatial Distribution of Floating Car Speed

WANG Yong, ZHUANG Da-Fang, LIU Hao-De

2012, 12(1): 36-41.

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Based on the analysis of shortcomings of traditional statistics research methods, the characteristics of geostatistics and its applied fields and application principles are proposed to improve the traditional research method of statistics on the floating car speed without considering its spatial structure. Meanwhile, the spatial analysis model and the solving algorithm are presented. The spatial structure and the interpolation of floating car speeds are analyzed by the floating car speed data of the study area in Beijing in May 2005. The results show that the geostatistics as a new spatial analysis method can solve the spatial variability problems which the traditional statistics methods cannot attained. The geostatistics provide a novel idea to study spatial transportation objects, which has important reference value to macrolevel transportation planning and mesolevel operating characteristics of transportation system and has good application prospects.

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Traffic Flow Data Recovery Algorithm Based on Gray Residual GM (1,N) Model 

GUO Min, LAN Jin-Hui , LI Juan-Juan, LIN Zong-Shu, SUN Xin-Rong

2012, 12(1): 42-47.

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The quality of the raw traffic data detected from traffic sensors directly affect the followup benefits of the the intelligent transportation systems. In view of the widespread failure problems of collected traffic data, the paper takes the traffic flow data of intersection detector as the research object. A traffic flow data recovery algorithm based gray residual GM (1, N)model is proposed. First, the grey relational analysis is conducted on the traffic flow of four links at an intersection. Then a grey model GM (1, N)is developed for the estimated recovery of failure data. The residual modification is used to improve the accuracy of the repaired data. The results indicate that the proposed traffic flow data recovery algorithm is feasible. It is able to solve the postprocessing difficulties due to data failure and it serves as a good method for failure data recovery in other areas as well.

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Coupled Parameter Optimization of PCNN Model and Vehicle Image Segmentation

YANG Na, CHEN Hou-Jin, LI Yan-Feng, HAO Xiao-Li

2012, 12(1): 48-54.

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The pulse coupled neural network (PCNN) has good properties for image segmentation. While the segmentation effect significantly depends on the parameter selection of PCNN. Thus, the adaptive parameter choice is important for the PCNN application research. The coupled parameter optimization algorithm based on the coupling characteristics is proposed, which combines the neural calculation principle and characteristics of grayscale in the image local area. First, the connection weight matrix of the PCNN model is updated in terms of the Hebb rule. Then the correlation strength factor between different regions is adaptively determined by local mean square deviation. Finally, the vehicle images are segmented by the PCNN model with optimized parameters. Compared with traditional PCNN image segmentation, the proposed method increases the coupling strength between neurons and avoids oversegmentation and undersegmentation. The segmentation quality of license plate images on the moving vehicles is improved, which lays a good foundation for the subsequent feature extraction.

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Modeling Route Correlation Degree of Urban Signalized Intersection Group

YANG Jie, GUO Xiu-Cheng, LI Yan, HE Shang-Lu, LIU Ying

2012, 12(1): 55-62.

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A method for the route correlation degree calculation is proposed to realize the traffic coordination control of the routes with a strong correlation in the intersection group. To avoid the detrimental effect such as spillback and starvation, the model considers several influencing factors, namely, the topology of the intersections group, the channelization and timing plan for each intersection, flow distribution, travel speed, the dispersion of traffic platoons, etc. The route correlation model composes of dispersion index and retardation index. An intersection group in Chuzhou city of China is taken as a case study. The coordination objects are determined after the correlation degree for all the routes are obtained. The improvements of the traffic operation are validated by the Synchro simulation. The results show the proposed method can effectively descript the correlation characters of the routes in the intersection group, which lays foundations for traffic coordination control.

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Similarity Discovery Method for Running Direction Identification Based on Public Traffic IC Data

CHEN Shao-Hui, CHEN Yan-Yan, LIU Shuai, ZHONG Yuan

2012, 12(1): 63-70.

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To obtain the passenger volume or passenger flow direction from public traffic intelligent card (IC) data, the direction of each bus work shift should be obtained first. The approach chooses the clustering analysis method to obtain the station passenger volume of single bus work shift, and measures the similarity of two time series (station passenger volume of IC data and historical station passenger volume) by the similarity discovery techniques. The experiment result shows when the difference of passenger regulation in two running directions exists, the similarity discovery methods (correlation coefficient and dynamic time warping) performs better and the two methods can be both used in bus running direction identification which route has apparent different passenger regulation in two directions.

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Risk Assessment for 4Phase Signal Control Intersection

ZHANG Dong-Mei, XU Jie, WANG Yan-Hui

2012, 12(1): 71-78.

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According to the Lebanon safety assessment model based on traffic conflict, this paper evaluates the safety of the 4-phase signal control intersection with more than 10,000 traffic volume during peak hours. It then determines the model parameters considering the distribution, type of conflict points and infrastructure characteristics and the traffic flow obtained by VISSIM simulation. The risks of each confliction and the entire intersection are analyzed and some measures are put forward to improve the intersection safety. The risk for the improved intersection is evaluated by VISSIM simulation. The case study of the intersection of Jingshiwei twelve in Jinan city is then conducted.

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Simplistic Geospatial Techniques in Analyzing Transportation Dynamics for OriginDestination Container Movement Routes in the United States

LEE Eunsu, ODUOR Peter G., FARAHMAND Kambiz

2012, 12(1): 79-90.

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Spatial analyses incorporating rudimentary techniques are essential to understand container transportation. Most transportation datasets are offered as raw disjoint data containing dissimilar attributes from different sources making them difficult to fathom any spatial linkages. Route optimization and market accessibility are increasingly becoming important and significant as newer container decongestion methods are put in place. OriginDestination dichotomies can best be harnessed in the United States by optimizing routes based on available databases. In this study,the Public Use Waybill sample database from Surface Transporation Board were used as preliminary inputs for inland railway route optimization. The paper utilized an approach akin to one used in riverine management to optimize container routes. From the primer databases, in as much as most import containers originate from Asia and Europe and shipped to the U.S. through specific North American ports, a significant portion gets to inland markets through Pacific coast in the U.S. The main hub ports for import containers are Los Angeles/Long Beach and Seattle for transpacific trade and New York/New Jersey and Savannah for transatlantic trade. An anomalous and notably high volume flow can be observed between the Pacific coast and the Mississippi valley area including metropolitan areas like Minneapolis, Chicago, Kansas City, Memphis, Dallas, and Houston. Assessing movement in the Midwest to east U.S., most container traffic volume passes through New York/New Jersey and Norfolk to end in Chicago. It can thus be surmized that an indepth preliminary assessment of container routing can provide a parametric basis for higherlevel cost and multimodal analyses.

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Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Route Planning for Traffic Information Collection

LIU Xiao-Feng, PENG Zhong-Ren, ZHANG Li-Ye, LI Li

2012, 12(1): 91-97.

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In this paper, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) route planning problem is introduced to deploy the UAV for road traffic information collection. The scenario of using limited UAVs to detect road sections is considered, and a multi-objective optimization model is developed, which uses the number of the UAVs and UAV maximum cruise distance as constraints and aims to minimize the total cruise distance and maximize the number of detected road sections. A novel non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm for this problem is then proposed. The case study shows that the nearly optimal solution for planning UAV routes can be acquired effectively. Compared the obtained solution with the optimal feasible solution, the total cruise distance is reduced by 13.07% and the number of detected targets is increased by 41.67%. Finally, some issues on deploying UAVs for traffic information collection are discussed.

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Capacity Deterioration with Elastic Demand in Road Segment

LIU Li-Juan, ZHANG Ning, CHEN Di, LIU Jian

2012, 12(1): 98-104.

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To explicitly analyze the stability of traffic flow and the capacity drop, the paper develops a link traffic simulation model based on the elastic demand depending on travel time. The traffic demand decreases when the travel time is prolonged under the elastic traffic demand. The travel time lies on the traffic condition of road segment, and the traffic state is evaluated with the MITSIM model. The results show that the link flow will be stable under the natural restrictions of traffic demand and travel time. The unsaturated stable flow will reach the maximum capacity with the traffic pressure boost. The saturated stable flow will below the maximum capacity and the flow volume will decrease with the increase of traffic pressure. To avoid the travel capacity reduction, all the link capacities should be considered in traffic planning for the entire transport network.

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Vulnerability Analysis of Road Networks

YANG Lu-Ping, QIAN Da-Lin

2012, 12(1): 105-110.

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Vulnerability of road networks measures the total loss of the network caused by sudden attack with consideration of the interactions among the units and the conscious external influences. When evaluating the vulnerability of the road network, reciprocity among units and the recovery ability of the network should be considered. The paper presents a method for vulnerability evaluation on the basis of the conception and the analysis model of the road network vulnerability. It examines the network vulnerability through final travel time loss of road user and takes sufficient consideration of the structure of the network, traffic flow state and the setting of the rescue center. A simple case study is conducted to illustrate the approach and some suggestions are proposed in terms of adding or rebuilding roads and re-locating the rescue sites.

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QuasiDynamic Model for Evolution of Network Travel Time under Incident

CHEN Ling-Juan, PU Yun, LIU Hai-Xu

2012, 12(1): 111-118.

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To describe the interaction and evolution rule of network travel time and route choice probability, the paper proposes a quasi-dynamic model with the road section flow state and logit principle. The divergemerge model and function between speed and density is used to compute section storage vehicles and travel time of nonincident section by analyzing traffic flow evolution process of incident section. The Kinematic wave theory is adopted to compute queue length and travel time of incident section. The results indicate that: before incident, traffic flow and route choice probability approaches an equilibrium with a longtime simulation; during the incident period, because of the interactions among queue length, route travel time and route choice probability, these three variables present concussed. With the incident clearance, route travel time decreases continuously; after queue dispersing, the route travel time and route choice probability approaches a new equilibrium within certain time.

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Transfer Passenger Flow Forecasting of Intercity Rail Transit

YAO Zhi-Sheng, DONG Chun-Jiao, XIONG Zhi-Hua

2012, 12(1): 119-123.

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The passenger flow forecasting which determines the scale of rail transit is important to guarantee the scientific, rational and feasible rail transit construction. The availability of previous methods for intercity passenger flow forecasting is distinct. A combination of three-time attraction and passenger transfer theory is proposed in this paper and the transfer rate can be obtained by distance analysis learned from statistical theory. The general distance dissimilarities matrix is gained according to the factor influencing the transfer passenger flow. Then, the transfer rate of passenger flow is obtained within the bounds of threetime attraction of rail transit. Therefore, the objected passenger flow is forecasted. The example with field data of one city illustrates the advantages of the proposed method: simple, feasible and applicable.

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Modeling Modal Shift of Car Travelers to Buses Based on Public Transport Priority

ZUO Zhong-Yi, YANG Guang-Chuan, SHAO Chun-Fu

2012, 12(1): 124-130.

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For the implementation of public transport priority, the deviation on estimating traffic flow assignment to bus lane and general lanes may lead to the waste of road space resource, consequently fail to achieve the goal of public transport priority. In this paper, the differences between travel speed of buses and cars and modal shift relationship are explored. A travel speed curve of bus and car speed variation under various bus proportion is obtained based on road impedance function. The result shows that in accordance with distinct passenger trip volumes and modal parameter values, there is an appropriate range of bus. Within this range, car travelers are willing to shift to buses, and road traffic system can be optimized as well. The proposed model serves the installation of bus lane on existing urban roads together with determining the bus dispatch interval.

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A New Optimization Model of Airport Gate Assignment

FENG Cheng, HU Ming-Hua, ZHAO Zheng

2012, 12(1): 131-138.

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In view of the situation in China that the gate assignment entirely depends on experience. This paper proposes an optimization model for gate assignment aimed at reducing the time travelers spent in the airport flight area on the basis of the traditional ideas of taxiway routing and gate waiting. With security constraints, the model minimizes total time and to find the optimal assignment. Considering the runway airport information such as ground network data, operating mode and flight schedules, a gate assignment optimization algorithm is designed and then computed by the MATLAB. The result shows that compared with the random assignment model, the time decreases by 9.7%, the ground capacity increases by 5.7%, the times of conflict and delay time decrease by 9.4% and 6.4%, respectively. Therefore, the efficiency of airport surface traffic is improved, and the proposed algorithm is feasible.

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Dual Traction Locomotive Turnaround Optimization Model Based on NonFixed Sections

WANG Jun, ZHANG Xing-Chen, WANG Chao, ZHENG Ya-Jing, LI Zhen

2012, 12(1): 139-144.

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Regarding the unpaired locomotive turnaround diagram, previous studies usually focused on fixed sections and single traction. The traditional method for locomotive turnaround diagram determination failed to meet the demand of nonfixed sections. Reasonable utilization of the locomotive in nonfixed sections usually reduces the locomotive turnaround time, optimizes the locomotive turnaround plan and thus improves the locomotive efficiency. This paper takes full consideration of two possible situations in dual traction unpaired locomotive turnaround diagram: the number of arrival single traction train does not equal the number of departure single traction train; the number of arrival dual traction train does not equal the number of departure dual traction train. By comprehensively analyzing the benefits of rail transport operation and the balance of train diagram, four objective functions are formulated: locomotive dwell time in station; the balance of locomotive turnaround diagram; locomotive turnaround distance,and locomotive number. Then, the 0-1 multiobjective planning model of locomotive turnaround diagram is developed and a corresponding algorithm is proposed. In the last section, the Xining East stationXining cargo section is taken as an example. Several key results are obtained: the least corresponding locomotive elapsed time, optimal attached solution and locomotive turnaround diagram.

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Combined Optimization of Allocation for Full and Empty Containers

XU Qi, LI Na, JIN Zhi-Hong

2012, 12(1): 145-152.

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The container allocation costs account for more than 20% of the total operational costs for carriers. The rational allocation of containers can greatly improve the transportation efficiency, reduce the transportation costs, and give full play to the advantages of container logistics. Considering the uncertainty of container demand and opportunity loss caused by lack of empty containers or ineffective management, the problem of full and empty container allocations is formulated as a stochastic programming model, which aims at maximizing the gross benefit of the transportation system. The algorithm combines with the dynamic programming (DP) and genetic algorithm (GA) is designed to solve the problem. By numerical experiments, the paper reveals some influencing mechanism of the relative parameters on the allocation strategy.

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Optimization Model on Container Slot Allocation in Container Yard with Mixed Storage Mode

ZHENG Hong-Xing, DU Liang, DONG Jian

2012, 12(1): 153-159.

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This study focuses on the container slot allocation problem with the mixed storage mode. To assign containers to the optimum positions of the loading yards, the optimized allocation aims at reducing the container relocation rate and enhancing the loading efficiency. The innerrelationship between container types and the relocation operation are examined in this paper. The containers’ processing priority is defined according to rolling plan and rules of mixed storage yards. The container slot allocation model is then developed to minimize the newlyadded numbers of those stacked containers. The heuristic algorithm is adopted to solve this model based on the characteristics of this kind of problem. The experiment shows that the optimization model and algorithm are more effective than the current original storage planning in container yards.

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Energy Consumption Models for Urban Bus Transport

TANG Xu-南, ZHANG Xiu-Yuan, SUN Hao

2012, 12(1): 160-165.

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The subsystem of urban public transit is the public transportation system on the ground. It is an important part of urban transport system and its energy consumption is increasing in these years. Because the researches on the energy consumption structure of urban public transit system are still not mature, exploring the energy consumption of urban public traffic system from the perspective of sustainable development is urgently needed. Considering the life cycle of the public vehicle energy consumption, this paper analyzes the energy consumption structure of urban public transit system. The energy consumption structure is established by introducing the energy cost rate parameters. It takes the public transit system of Beijing for example to calculate the life cycle of the public vehicle energy consumption, energy cost rate parameters and the energy consumption cost in 2010. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the case results and gives reasonable suggestions on restructuring urban public traffic system.

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Traffic Structure-Based Air Traffic Complexity Modeling

YE Bo-Jia, HU Ming-Hua, ZHANG Chen, ZHANG Jin

2012, 12(1): 166-172.

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To overcome the limitations of traditional evaluation methods which based on aircraft counts in assessing complexity of the air traffic situations, the paper develops a new air traffic complexity model based on structure factors. With analysis of air traffic control difficulty effects from the potential conflicts due to traffic structure factors such as the relative distance of aircraft pair-wise and the intersecting trajectory, the paper considers distance factor and the conflict factors in the model. Assessments based on the operational data from Guangzhou area control center in China indicate that the traffic complexity values vary as aircraft counts change all the time. However, the extending of the change is not the same and the tendency is even opposite sometimes. Replay and further analysis of the traffic situations validate the model that the new metric ensitively and accurately reflects the operational characteristics of the airspace compared by aircraft countsbased methods.

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Analysis and Forecasting of Port Logistics Based on TEI@I Methodology

XU Li-Zhi, WANG Shou-Yang

2012, 12(1): 173-179.

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This paper presents an integrated forecasting model based on the TEI@I methodology for port logistics prediction. For illustration, Qingdao port container throughout series is used as a case study. Empirical results reveal that TEI@I integrated model can significantly improve the prediction performance over single models presented in this study, especially in terms of direction prediction measurement (Dstat). It implies that the integrated forecasting model based on the TEI@I methodology can be used as a feasible solution to port logistics volume prediction and analysis. Furthermore, it also can be applied as an effective and feasible solution to analyze the effects of irregular and infrequent events on the time series of forecasting object.

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Bus Fare Classification with Genetic Algorithm

BAI Han, LIU Hao-Xue, NI Huai-Zhou, YANG Zhen

2012, 12(1): 180-184.

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A reasonable fare classification strategy can often make the bus passengers and operators achieve a “winwin” situation. To realize that, the information of passenger choice is collected by a SP survey, the key factors affecting the generalized cost are identifited and the function of the generalized cost is formulated by the statistical analysis method. Then a method of fare classification based on the bilevel programming model is developed by taking the maximum generalized cost and maximum interests of operation as the ultimate goal. The model is solved by the genetic algorithm, and the bus line 2 in Jinan city of China is taken as an example to verify the rationality of the model. The result shows the model can raise not only the generalized cost of the bus passenger but the interest of the operators.

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Characteristics of Traffic Flow at Non-Signalized T-Shaped Intersection

FAN Hong-Qiang, JIA Bin, LI Xin-Gang, TIAN Jun-Fang

2012, 12(1): 185-192.

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At the nonsignalized Tshaped intersection, there are three types of vehicles, such as straightdriving vehicles, leftturning vehicles and rightturning vehicles. The cellular automata model is proposed to explore the characteristic of traffic flow at the nonsignalized Tshaped intersection with all directional vehicles. The rules are applied to avoid the conflicts between different directional vehicles and the gridlock happen. The influence of inflow rates, leftturning vehicles and rightturning vehicles on each lane flux is discussed. This paper especially focuses on rightturning vehicles. Simulation results indicate rightturning vehicles can enhance the flux of the minor street and the inner lane of the major street but restrain the flux in outer lane of the major street. It is observed that when the inflow rates of the inner lane in major street is low enough and the inflow rates of the outer lane in major street is high enough, rightturning vehicles in minor street can enhance the flux in outer lane of major street.

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Transportation Characteristic Analysis of USA with Input Output Model

DUAN Xin, CHEN Jian-Hua, LU Ao-Qing

2012, 12(1): 193-198.

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Promoting the development of the tertiary industry is taken as a key economic development strategy in China. As a traditional and forerunner industry, transportation has the priority based on its features of basic industry and properties of service economy. In the shirft period for a modern tertiary industry, it is necessary to make suitable and available strategies and policies according to the features and rules of transportation development. The United States is with high advantages in transportation development. Thus, analyzing its transportation evolution and development process has good reference values to capture the properties and development law of transportation industry. Based on the I-O analysis, this paper explores the function location and roles of transportation industry in US in terms of the direct input coefficients, cumulative input coefficients, influence coefficient and induction coefficients from 1947 to 2002. The results provid references for the transportation development in China.

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Analysis and Forecasting of the Tanker Freight Rates Based on Combined Forecasting Model

JI Ming-Jun, ZHANG Hai-Yan, WANG Qing-Bin

2012, 12(1): 199-204.

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The paper analyzes the relationship between the tanker freight rate and the price of crude oil and forecasts the trend of the tanker freight rates. Using the granger causality test, the price of crude oil is Granger causality of the tanker freight rates with three steps. Therefore, the tanker freight rate is then forecasted by the ARCH model with three steps. The accuracy of the model is within 8%. Based on the nonlinear trend of tanker freight rates, the BP neural network with three levels is used to forecast the tanker freight rates. The accuracy of the model is within 3%. Combining the characteristics of the ARCH model and the BP neural network, a novel combined forecasting model is modified to improve the accuracy of tanker freight rate forecast, whose weights are gained by minimizing the model of forecasting errors. The accuracy of the model is within 2% and significantly improved. The study provides a good method for the tanker freight rate forecast.

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Passenger Flow Characteristics and Development Regularity of Urban Rail Transit in Guangzhou

LIU Ying-Du

2012, 12(1): 205-209.

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Many cities are now under constructing or planning of urban rail transit.Passenger flow data provide essential basis for the feasibility demonstration, scheme comparison, size of the system, and benefit analysis. How to scientifically and reasonably forecast passenger flow becomes a major task during the decision-making process. A timely review of development regularity and passenger flow characteristics of urban rail transit system could result in a more accurate forecasting. This paper reviews and analyzes passenger flow characteristics and development regularity from single line to networks based on the operation data of the eight existing rail transit lines in Guangzhou. In order to promote passenger flow forecasting, the paper presents suggestions including enhancing the overall public transportation capacity, choosing of transfer point, development of land surrounding the station and design of urban rail transit ticket. It provides significant reference for urban rail construction and operation.

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