Abstract: Many cities are now under constructing or planning of urban rail transit.Passenger flow data provide essential basis for the feasibility demonstration, scheme comparison, size of the system, and benefit analysis. How to scientifically and reasonably forecast passenger flow becomes a major task during the decision-making process. A timely review of development regularity and passenger flow characteristics of urban rail transit system could result in a more accurate forecasting. This paper reviews and analyzes passenger flow characteristics and development regularity from single line to networks based on the operation data of the eight existing rail transit lines in Guangzhou. In order to promote passenger flow forecasting, the paper presents suggestions including enhancing the overall public transportation capacity, choosing of transfer point, development of land surrounding the station and design of urban rail transit ticket. It provides significant reference for urban rail construction and operation.

Key words: urban traffic, urban rail transit, passenger flow characteristics, development regularity

摘要： 目前国内许多大城市都在建设或者规划城市轨道交通，客流资料是项目的必要性论证、方案比选、确定系统规模、进行效益分析的基础，科学合理地预测客流已成为决策中面临的重大课题，及时总结城市自身的轨道交通成长规律和客流特征，有助于提高客流预测的准确性.本文根据广州已开通的八条轨道线运营资料，对轨道交通从单线向网络转变过程中的成长规律和客流特征进行分析.最后，从公交整体水平提升、换乘点接入、站点周边用地开发、以及轨道票价制定等方面提出相关建议，为我国轨道交通客流预测水平的提高奠定基础，为轨道交通的建设、运营提供参考.

关键词: 城市交通, 轨道交通, 客流特征, 成长规律