Intercity Transport Mode Spilt Calculation Method Based on Rank Logit Model

Abstract

Abstract: Intercity transportation plays an important role in urban economic growth, which is also an important research field of transportation planning. With the rapid development of highspeed railway, intercity transportation mode split is correspondingly changing in China. The Rank Logit model is one of the methods to measure the mode spilt in transportation research. The method can make full use of ranking data from SP survey to improve the model accuracy. The paper investigates the GuangzhouWuhan corridor and collects 891 SP survey data from the corridor to formulate a Rank Logit model. The analysis of the model indicates that the RL model has higher accuracy and more reliability from three perspectives as evaluation index, parameter rationality and value of passenger time. Finally, the paper carries out political sensitive analysis with six group examinations. The proposed method can be used to assit traffic planning and policymaking or provide reference for implementing and adjusting operation strategy.

Key words: integrated transportation, mode spilt, Rank Logit model, intercity transportation, highspeed railway

摘要： 城际交通对城市经济发展有显著作用，同样也是交通规划领域一个重要课题.随着高铁的快速发展，城际交通分担率也随之有相应变化.计算分担率的方法很多，其中Rank Logit模型能够充分利用SP调查中乘客对交通工具选择的排序数据，可以获得比其他非集计模型更高精度的特点.本文采集891份有效SP数据并建立Rank Logit模型，对广州—武汉的城际交通分担率展开研究以验证该模型的优点.模型结果从评价指标、参数实际意义和乘客时间价值等方面对比Rank Logit模型和Multinomial Logit模型，证明RL模型拥有更高的模型精度和可靠性.在此基础上本文进一步对武广通道上政策性调整进行了6组敏感性分析，为政府进行交通规划、交通运输政策的制订及修改等提供决策依据，也为铁道部、航空公司等运营部门制定策略提供了理论参考.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 交通分担率, Rank Logit模型, 城际交通, 高铁

CLC Number:

U491

WANG Xiao-Zhi, ZHAO Sheng-Chuan, YAN Zhen-Zhen. Intercity Transport Mode Spilt Calculation Method Based on Rank Logit Model[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2012, 12(2): 137-143.

王孝之, 赵胜川, 闫祯祯. 基于Rank Logit模型对城际交通分担率的计算方法研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2012, 12(2): 137-143.

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract18362.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2012/V12/I2/137

References

［1］ Andrés L, Francesc R. Impact of highspeed lines in relation to very high frequency air services ［J］. Journal of Public Transportation，2005，8(2)：17-35.
［2］GonzalezSavignat M. Competition in air transport: the case of the high speed train ［J］. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy，2004，38 (1)：77-108.
［3］Senanu A，Hojong B，Antonio T. Logit models for forecasting nationwide intercity travel demand in the United States ［J］. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board，2007：1-12.
［4］Stephane H, Thomas A, John W P. Modelling airport and airline choice behaviour with the use of stated preference survey data ［J］. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review，2007，43(3)：221-233.
［5］张戎，吴晓磊，张天然. 基于RP/SP融合数据的沪杭客运通道公铁客流分担率研究［J］. 铁道学报. 2008, 30(3):7-13. ［ZHANG R, WU X L, ZHANG T R. The railway and highway mode split analysis in Huhang corridor based on RP/ SP combined data ［J］. Journal of The China Railway Society，2008，30(3)：7-13.］
［6］McFadden D. On independence, structure, and simultaneity in transportation demand analysis ［R］. Working paper No.7511，Institute of Transportation and Traffic Engineering，University of California，Berkeley，CA. 1975.
［7］赵胜川，王喜文，姚荣涵，等. 私家车出行者通勤出行时间价值［J］. 交通运输系统工程与信息. 2009，9(1)：109-112. ［ZHAO S C, WANG X W, YAO R H， et al. Value of drivers’ commuting travel time［J］. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology，2009，9 (1)：109-112.］
［8］Michiel C　J, John M　R. Experimental design influences on stated choice outputs: An empirical study in air travel choice ［J］. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2011，45(1)：63-79.

[1]	ZHANG Jun-yi, LI Shuang-jin, MA Shuang. Overview of Life-oriented Travel Behavior Research [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2022, 22(2): 1-16.
[2]	LI Jie-mei , GAO Li, QI Jing-jie, YIN Qi. Evolution of Hinterland-port Accessibility Pattern and Its Spatial Spillover Effect [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2022, 22(2): 29-36.
[3]	FENG Fen-ling , SUN Nan-jia. Time Value Based Route and Port Selection for China and Africa Multimodal Transportation [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2022, 22(2): 45-53.
[4]	LIU Zhong-bo , WANG Qi-xian, ZHENG Hong-xing. Optimization Model and Algorithm for Supply of War Storage Materials on Distant Islands and Reefs Based on Sea Air Cooperation [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2022, 22(2): 268-279.
[5]	ZHANG Ying-gui , XIAO Yang, LEI Ding-you, LU Qiang. Risk Propagation Dynamics Simulation on Multimodal Transport Network for Oversize and Heavyweight Cargo [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2022, 22(1): 14-23.
[6]	ZHU Li-chao , ZHEN Wei , LIU Zhao-ran. Energy Consumption Measurement and Energy-saving Potential Analysis of Freight Corridors from Perspective of Life Cycle [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2022, 22(1): 24-29.
[7]	MAO Bao-hua , LU Xia , HUANG Jun-sheng , HO Tin-kin , CHEN Hai-bo. On Development Path of Hydrogen Energy Technology in China's Transportation System Under Carbon Neutrality Goal [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(6): 234-243.
[8]	WANG Qing-yun, MAO Bao-hua, ZHANG Guo-wu. Evolution of Transportation Systems Engineering in China [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(5): 2-11.
[9]	PENG Hong-qin , ZHANG Guo-wu. Influence of New Technologies on Development of Transportation in the 14th Five Years and 2035 [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(4): 1-5.
[10]	MA Ji-hui, WANG Ying-zhi, JIANG Xiu-shan , WEI Liang. Revenue Distribution Models of Air-rail Intermodal Transport Based on Game Theory [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(4): 23-29.
[11]	TAO Si-ran, YE Xia-fei . A Forecasting Model of Intercity Trip Distribution with Tourism Preference [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(4): 140-147.
[12]	ZHANG Yu-zhao. Review of Service Network Design for Express Freight Transportation [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(3): 1-12.
[13]	ZHANG Ya-nan, XI Yang, YANG Jia-yu, LIU Jian-feng. Forecast of Haikou External Passenger Volume Considering Free Trade Port in Hainan Province [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(3): 260-267.
[14]	XU Xin-yang, YANG Yang. Tripartite Evolutionary Game of Rail-road Intermodal Transport System under Domination of Government [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(2): 7-15.
[15]	KE Yu, NIE Lei, YUAN Wu-yang. A Timetabling Model for High-speed Railway Based on Accessibility of Air and High-speed Rail Intermodality Service [J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2021, 21(1): 23-29.