Abstract:

In order to calculate waterway traffic capacity accurately and conveniently, the traffic capacity model is built based on the tested data of traffic flow. The traffic flow data including vessel speed, arrival time, vessel length, vessel clearance are collected in Wuhan, the midstream of Yangtze River, and Wuhu, the downstream of Yangtze River, using manual continuous acquisition method. Analysis of vessel speed, vessel clearance and vessel length distribution rule shows that vessel speed in Wuhu and Wuhan, vessel clearance in Wuhan obey the normal distribution, while vessel clearance in Wuhu obeys lognormal distribution. Combining with the existing information and fitting of the relationship between the tonnage and length, the results show that the vessel length is proportional to the quadratic of tonnage. Introduction of design-hour traffic volume and navigation days, the midstream-downstream of Yangtze River traffic capacity model is established and calculated. The results of simulation show that the newly calculated traffic capacity is smaller than the tradition one with an acceptable error. So the new formula can be used to calculate traffic capacity.

Key words: waterway transportation, traffic capacity, vessel traffic flow, inland waterway transportation, the midstream-downstream of Yangtze River, data fitting

摘要：

简便准确计算通过能力，避免采用诸多经验性修正系数，从实测交通流角度 出发建立通过能力计算模型.运用人工连续采集法测量长江中游武汉段、长江下游芜湖段 过往船舶船速、到达时间、长度、船间距等信息.根据所测数据分析船舶速度、间距、长度等 规律，分析可得，芜湖段与武汉段船速、武汉段船间距均服从正态分布，芜湖段船间距服 从对数正态分布；结合已有信息对长度、吨位关系进行拟合，结果表明，船长与吨位二次 方呈正比；引入设计小时交通量、船舶通航天数概念，建立长江中下游航道通过能力计算 模型，并对其进行仿真验证.结果表明，推荐公式所得通过能力略小，误差在允许范围之 内，可为计算通过能力提供新算法.

关键词: 水路运输, 通过能力, 船舶交通流, 内河交通, 长江中下游, 数据拟合