Abstract:

There is significant heterogeneity in travelers' choice preferences. Previous studies divided travelers into different subgroups based on travelers' demographic characteristics and then analyzed the travel behavior for the specific subgroups. However, this classification method doesn't ground on solid theoretical basis. This paper analyzed the impacts of commuters' heterogeneity and in-vehicle crowding on the value of time of the metro, using the latent- class conditional Logit model. The latent- class conditional Logit model normally analyzes travelers' choice behavior first and then factor in travelers' demographic characteristics on the classification. Through analysis, travelers were divided into two subgroups: class 1 and class 2. Travelers in class 1 didn't care much about the degree of crowding inside the metro. Travelers in class 2 attached great importance to the in-vehicle crowding of the metro. The value of time for the sitter and the standee of the class 1 group were found to be 14.7 RMB/h and 16.9 RMB/h, respectively. As to the standee in class 2 group, the value of time increased 8.6 RMB/h when the standee density increased by 1 person/m2. Travelers' requirement of comfortability had a significant impact on the classification. The traveler with higher requirement on comfortability is more likely belong to class 2 group.

Key words: urban traffic, value of time, latent-class conditional Logit model, in-vehicle crowding, heterogeneity

摘要：

出行者的选择偏好存在显著的异质性，现有研究根据出行者的某些特征对出行者分类，再分析不同类别出行者的选择行为，这种方法缺乏理论依据. 本文利用潜在类别条件 Logit 模型，研究出行者异质性和其对地铁时间价值的综合影响. 潜在类别条件Logit 模型根据出行者的选择行为进行分类，再分析出行者的个人特征对分类的影响. 通过分析，出行者可以划分为class1、class2 两个潜在类别.class1 中无座乘客不在意车厢内拥挤度，class2 中无座乘客极为在意车厢内拥挤度；class1 中有座乘客与无座乘客的时间价值分别为14.7 元/h、16.9 元/h， class2 中车厢内无座乘客的密度增加1 人/m2，其时间价值增加8.6 元/h；出行者的舒适性需求对出行者类别划分具有显著影响，出行者的舒适性需求越高，出行者越有可能属于class2.

关键词: 城市交通, 时间价值, 潜在类别条件Logit模型, 车厢内拥挤度, 异质性