Abstract: In recent years, electric bicycle is developing rapidly in China, and has exerted a profound influence on urban traffic structure. According to the basic principle of Markov Analysis, forecasting model of e-bike mode share is established in this paper. On the basis of it, take Shijiazhuang for example, current traffic mode share and transfer intention of residents in Shijiazhuang are analyzed by field survey. Then, in case of three situations: non-restriction, restriction, proper control, and according to different mode transfer probability, mode share of e-bike in Shijiazhuang in the next several years would be forecasted and analyzed, which could offer decision-making support for cities to establish relevant policy of e-bike.

Key words: electric bike, Markov Chain, traffic mode transfer, mode-share forecasting model

摘要： 近几年，电动自行车在中国发展迅速，已经对我国城市交通结构产生了深远的影响。本文根据马尔可夫分析法的基本原理，建立起电动自行车的方式分担预测模型。在此基础上，以石家庄市为例，通过实地调研分析该市居民现有的交通方式和转移意向。然后，假设在放任、限制、适度控制三种场景下，根据不同的交通方式转移概率，预测未来几年石家庄市电动自行车的方式分担率。并对预测结果进行分析，从而为各城市制定电动自行车的相关政策提供决策依据。

关键词: 电动自行车, 马尔可夫链, 交通方式转移, 方式分担预测模型