Abstract: Highway traffic volume forcasting acts as a complex transport system engineering which is effected by many social condition such as transport qualifications, economic and social elements, et. The degree of influence and disciplinarian of the above factors on traffic volume are deeply related with transportation program establishment. Based on the abundant statistic analysis, the paper concludes that the traffic volume of national or provincial trunk-highway is becoming more and more related with the regional economy, which shows a certain character of the space-time distributing.

Key words: highway traffic volume, economy quantity, elasticity, system analysis

摘要： 公路交通量预测是一项复杂的交通运输系统工程。交通量是社会系统中交通条件、经济及社会等诸多因素共同作用的结果。掌握上述要素对交通量的影响或作用强度及其规律对于科学准确地分析预测交通量，进行交通规划具有十分重要的意义。本文对大量统计数据的分析研究结果表明，随着我国经济的发展，公路交通量，特别是国、省道干线交通量与经济量相关性变得越来越密切，并且在时空分布上呈现出一定特征。

关键词: 公路交通量, 经济量, 弹性系数, 系统分析