Abstract: Urban railway passenger forecast is the basis of urban railway network plan ，which is important to determine railway network dimensions and distribution，train figuration，operation，and economic evaluation．This paper introduces the application of disaggregated activity-based model to forecast railway passenger in Beijing Metro Line 5．Activity-based forecast method researches people’s behaviour．A chain of activities describes the order of different activities during a person’s run of the day．It is more reasonable than other approaches used in passenger forecast．This paper introduces the application of activity-based method in Beijing Metro Line 5 passenger forecast in detail，then presents the forecast results．

Key words: urban railway transit, passenger forecast, behaviour, activity chain

摘要： 城市轨道交通客流预测是轨道交通线网规划的定量分析依据，它对于轨道交通系统的线网规模、布局、车组配置、运营组织以及经济评价等都起着至关重要的作用。本文介绍了非集计的基于行为的客流预测模型在北京市轨道交通客流预测中的运用，基于行为的预测方法以出行链为基本研究单元，能够描述出行个体全天的出行活动以及这些活动在时间上和空间上的发生顺序，从而更精确地预测人的行为。结合北京市地铁5号线客流预测的实例，对基于行为的客流预测方法体系进行了详细介绍，并给出了预测的结果，证明了其可行性。

关键词: 城市轨道交通, 客流预测, 行为, 出行链