Abstract: With the rapid economic growth in Beijing, the demand for travel is increasing continuously. A directly result of which is a continually surge in vehicle ownership. Travel mode share has changed significant during the period 1986 to 2000. The modal split surveys show that, in the past fifteen years, the share of public transport in total demand has decreased slightly. The main modal shift has been from bicycle to car travel. Reviews of the travel modal share situation in similar metropolitan cities around the world suggest that the key to success in managing the increasing travel demand is to adopt policies and strategies which aim to persuade people to choose a sustainable travel mode. Based on the existing traffic data collection and specialist surveys, a sustainable modal choice target has been suggested for Beijing. The policies and strategies to achieve this target modal choice are proposed in this paper which takes into account the experience in both the developed countries and other rapidly developing countried and cities.

Key words: sustainablity, travel demand, modal split, Beijing

摘要： 随着社会经济的快速发展，北京市居民出行需求日益增长,机动车辆拥有量也随之迅猛上升。北京市1986年和2000年的居民出行调查结果表明，在过去的15年内，居民交通出行模式发生了变化，公交出行比例比原来略有减少，主要的变化是原来的自行车出行这部分中，有很大一部分转变为机动车出行。本文通过对类似规模的几个国际大都市交通出行结构演变过程的回顾，找出其关键之处在于采用政策策略促使居民出行选择有利于城市可持续发展模式；根据广泛调查和专家资讯，确定了一个北京城市交通出行各种方式的合理比例，作为发展目标；并参考发达国家和一些快速发展的国家和城市的经验，提出了达到这个目标的对策和策略。

关键词: 可持续发展, 交通需求, 出行结构, 北京