Abstract: Considering the fact that the delay model of adaptive signal control derived from the stable theory cannot reflect the dynamic status of the traffic flow from each direction at an intersection, this paper uses the Fixed Number Theory and considers the dynamic traffic flow arriving process from each direction at the intersection. Subsequently, a new delay model is proposed according to the characteristics of Markov, to determine the vehicle’s average delay for a certain period under a self-adaptive signal control condition, by simplifying the arrival form of traffic flow and simulating the reasoning for the Delay triangle. On the basis of the simulation platform of OPAC (Optimized Policies for Adaptive Control), the survey data from real intersections is used as the input, and the comparative analysis between the calculation results of the delay model and the traffic simulation results indicate that the proposed delay model is more effective than the model based on the stable theory, in objectively reflecting the operation of the traffic flow at the intersection.

Key words: delay, adaptive signal control, traffic simulation, fixed number theory

摘要： 针对以稳态理论为基础推导的自适应信号控制延误计算模型不能反映交叉口各进口道车流动态变化的情况，提出以定数理论为基础，考虑交叉口各进口道车流的动态变化过程，仿效延误三角形的推导模式，通过简化交叉口进口道的车流到达形式，并基于Markov特性建立了一段时间内自适应信号控制条件下的平均车辆延误计算模型。借助自适应信号控制软件系统(OPAC)作为仿真平台，以实际调查数据为例，延误模型计算结果与交通仿真结果的比较分析表明：建立的延误计算模型较稳态理论下的延误计算模型更能客观反映交叉口的车流运行状况。

关键词: 延误, 自适应信号控制, 交通仿真, 定数理论