Abstract: It is expected that World Expo 2010 Shanghai will attract as many as 600,000 spectators in a normal peak day. The complexity of pedestrian circulations after the Expo’s opening will be a challenge to the Expo’s efficient operations. A plat in the Expo Site was selected for a microscopic pedestrian simulation modeling study, consisting of multiple pavilions with high attractiveness, a variety of spectator service facilities such as shopping centers, restaurants and restrooms, and different kinds of pedestrian facilities. The Legion computer simulation package was utilized for the study. Simulation parameters were calibrated based on statistical analysis on relevant field data sets. Characteristics of Expo spectators’ touring actions were presented. Through a comparative analysis on circulations of the Expo spectators and those of game spectators in a stadium and passengers in a metro station, a modeling approach was proposed for the Expo spectators, which was different from the approach to modeling circulations of the game spectators and metro passengers. Simulation results were analyzed and interpreted from the perspective of pedestrian planning and operations for the use of relevant authorities. The simulation study and results helped to prompt measures to improve the study site’s planning, engineering design, and operations from the pedestrian circulation perspective. The methodology can be applied to other areas of the Expo Site with propagation of the preparation for the major event.

Key words: World Expo 2010 Shanghai, pedestrian circulation, pedestrian simulation modeling, simulation study

摘要： 中国2010年上海世博会普通高峰日预计将吸引多达60万人次的参观客流。开博后世博园内复杂的人流活动对世博会的有效运营提出了挑战。选取了世博园内一个热门展馆众多，设施布局复杂，行人设施多样的地块进行微观人流仿真研究。分析了世博观众的参观行为特点。选择使用Legion模型作为仿真研究的平台，并对仿真参数进行了统计分析与标定。在对世博观众参观流线与体育比赛观众和地铁乘客流线进行了对比分析的基础上，提出了一种与体育比赛观众和地铁乘客人流仿真建模不同的建模方法。对仿真结果从人流规划和运营的角度进行了分析和解读，并介绍了相关人员对其的应用。研究方法和成果对世博园的规划、设计和运营从行人交通的角度提供了技术支持和科学依据。所使用的研究方法具有代表性，随着办博工作的深入，可以推广到世博园其他地块和人流活动密集区域。本工作也可以为其他大型活动的人流规划与仿真提供有价值的参考。

关键词: 上海世博会, 步行人流, 人流仿真, 仿真分析