Abstract: Studying the periodic fluctuation and the growth of comprehensive transportation demand can provide strong supports for the formulation of macro-transportation policy. Referring to the comprehensive demand data from 1953 to 2006 of China, the paper proposes the indicators of periodic fluctuations on passenger transportation demand, freight transportation demand, and comprehensive transportation demand. The growths of passenger and freight transportation demands are also analyzed by Tukey-Hanning spectrum. The results indicate that a 6–8 year medium periodic fluctuation and a 3-year short periodic fluctuation exit in the development of China’s transportation demand. The fluctuation of comprehensive transportation demand is demonstrated to be obvious.

Key words: passenger transportation demand, freight transportation demand, periodic fluctuation, spectrum analysis, Hanning window

摘要： 研究综合运输需求的周期波动性特征，了解运输需求增长的轨迹，能为宏观运输政策的制定提供有力的依据。为了分析综合运输需求的周期波动性特征，参照我国1953年至2006年的综合运输需求发展变化数据，通过给出客运需求周期波动指标，货运需求周期波动指标和综合运输需求周期波动指标，并运用时间序列的频域分析(简称谱分析)理论中的图基—汉宁窗谱估计法，对此期间的客货运输需求的变化进行了分析。数据分析的结果表明，在我国综合运输需求发展过程中存在周期约为6到8年为主的中周期波动，并且围绕3年左右还存在一个作用相对较弱的短周期波动，综合运输需求周期波动性特征明显。

关键词: 客运需求, 货运需求, 周期波动, 谱分析, 汉宁窗