Abstract: Aiming at decreasing average passenger waiting time at stops, time headway adherence is used to analyze and measure the route-level transit service reliability in terms of high frequency bus route services. Considering the influence of passenger demand fluctuation and the stochastic nature of running time on road segments on transit service reliability, a fixed high frequency bus route was set to be the example route. The stochastic simulation method was used to analogy the process of its bus services, time headway variation, and average passenger waiting time at stops under different passenger demand and running time fluctuation. The results show that bigger running time fluctuation and more uneven passenger arrival lead to higher headway variation and longer average passenger waiting time at stops; the accumulative headway variation tends to be higher which causes worse service reliability at stops downstream.

Key words: public transit, transit service reliability, stochastic simulation, high frequency bus route, headway adherence

摘要： 对于高频率公交线路服务，以减少在站乘客平均等待时间为目标,提出以车头时间距的一致性来分析和衡量线路级别的公交服务可靠性的方法。考虑乘客需求波动和线路运行时间随机性对公交服务可靠性的影响，以一条高频发车的固定公交线路为考察对象，利用随机模拟方法仿真公交服务过程，计算分析了不同乘客需求和运行时间波动情况下的车头时间距的变异特征和在站乘客平均等待时间。结果表明，线路运行时间波动越大，乘客到达越不均匀，车头时间距变异就越大，乘客平均等待时间也就越长；随着站序的增加，累计车头时间距变异趋向于增大，服务可靠性逐渐变差。

关键词: 公共交通, 公交服务可靠性, 随机仿真, 高频公交线路, 车头时间距一致性