Abstract: This paper develops a subsidy model of urban public transport based on relevant principle analysis. Then, with the case and subsidy policy of Beijing public transport, the paper explores the relationship of public transport subsidies and several important factors, namely, public transport structure coefficient, ridership, and operation cost. The results show that an appreciate passenger volume split of each transport mode obtains a small share of public transport subsidies in the total government revenue, and ensures the sustainability of the public transport low-fare policy. Meanwhile, it meets the requirement of public transport ridership. Under the condition of a constant public transport operating costs and subsidies share of fiscal revenue ratio of less than 4％, Beijing’s fiscal revenue should keep up to 10.9％ to obtain a public transport ridership of 45％ with low-fare policy.

Key words: urban traffic, subsidies, ridership, public transport, transport structure

摘要： 在分析公共交通补贴原理的基础上，构建了公共交通补贴模型. 以北京市公共交通补贴为背景，研究了公共交通结构系数、分担率以及运营成本对公共交通财政补贴的影响．结果表明，合理分配各种公共交通方式的客流量，一方面使得政府公共交通补贴的额度在财政收入当中的比重不至于过大，确保了政府的公共交通低票价政策的可持续性；另一方面也满足了公共交通承担客流比例的要求．在公共交通运营成本不变和公交补贴占财政收入比例小于4％的情况下，北京市财政收入需保持年增长10.9％以上，才能满足2015年公交分担率达到45％时低票价政策的补贴需要.

关键词: 城市交通, 补贴, 分担率, 公共交通, 交通结构