Energy Consumption Driving Factors and Measuring Models of Regional Integrated Transport System

Abstract

Abstract:

To identify the energy consumption driving factors and measure their corresponding contributions in energy consumption, the paper classifies the factors into scale effect, structure effect and technique effect according the driving mechanism. It then analyzes the correlations between these factors by ASIF data structural principles and the time series regression. The contributions of these factors are measured via the expanded LMDI decomposition model based on the LMDI method. The result indicate that: (1) the impacts from scale effect and technique effect are weakening, while that from structure effect is increasing; (2) the transport supply structure needs to be further optimized, and there exists plenty of space for reducing the impact on energy consumption; (3) the energy efficiency has increased a lot in recent years, but its contribution to energy consumption is shrinking. Improving the transport intensity exerts significant effect on saving energy. The reliability of the models and its conclusions is proved by empirical studies, which provides scientific supports for the policy making of regional lowcarbon integrated transport.

Key words: integrated transportation, regional transportation, energy consumption, driving factors, measuring models

摘要：

为识别区域综合交通系统能耗驱动因子，测算其对系统能耗的贡献度，将驱动因素分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应，采用ASIF数据构造原理和时序列回归法识别各因子的相关性，运用迪氏分解方法建立扩展LMDI分解模型，计算各因子能耗贡献度.计算表明,规模效应和技术效应的影响程度在逐渐减弱，结构效应的影响程度在逐渐增加；运输结构还需要进一步优化，对系统能耗的影响还有很大下降空间；近年来能耗效率已经得到很大提高，但能耗效率对能耗的贡献正在逐渐减弱，未来提高运输强度对降低能耗有明显效果.经实证检验，计算模型可靠、结论可信，能为区域综合低碳交通政策制定提供更科学的依据.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 区域交通, 能源消耗, 驱动因子, 测算模型

CLC Number:

U491

SUN Qi-peng, JI Jiao, XU Cheng. Energy Consumption Driving Factors and Measuring Models of Regional Integrated Transport System[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2013, 13(3): 1-9.

孙启鹏，吉姣，徐成. 区域综合交通系统能耗驱动因子及其测算模型研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2013, 13(3): 1-9.

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract18575.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2013/V13/I3/1

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