Construction Sequence of Urban Rail Transit System Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Abstract

Abstract:

To determine the construction sequence of each line in the whole rail transit network, this paper establishes a influencing factors system of urban rail transit construction sequence and proposes a decisionmaking method of construction schedule based on the cumulative prospect theory. The [-1, 1] linear transformation operator is used to standardize the original decisionmaking matrix, and then, the positive and negative ideal scheme are obtained. The prospect value function is developed based on the cumulative prospect theory and grey correlation analysis. An optimization model aiming at maximizing the comprehensive prospects value is also developed. The optimal weight vector is solved and the construction sequence is determined. Finally, a case study of Xi’an rail transit is studied using the proposed method. The result shows that the construction sequence of Xi’an rail transit lines is consistent with the real situation, which implies that the proposed method provides theoretical guidance for urban rail transit construction sequence.

Key words: traffic engineering, construction sequence, cumulative prospect theory, urban rail transit, grey correlation

摘要：

为明确各条线路在整个城市轨道交通线网中的修建时序，构建了城市轨道交通线路建设时序影响因素指标体系，提出了一种基于累积前景理论的城市轨道交通线路建设时序决策方法.该方法利用奖优罚劣的[-1,1]线性变换算子对原始决策矩阵进行规范化处理，由此得到正负理想方案.基于累积前景理论和灰色关联分析确定前景价值函数，构建城市轨道交通线路建设时序的综合前景值最大化优化模型，通过求解该模型得出最优权向量，并最终确定出城市轨道交通线路建设时序的最优方案.最后以西安市轨道交通线网为例进行建设时序排序.结果表明，运用所提出方法确定的结果与实际建设时序一致，该方法可为城市轨道交通建设时序提供理论指导.

关键词: 交通工程, 建设时序, 累积前景理论, 城市轨道交通, 灰色关联

CLC Number:

U491

GUO Yan-yong, LIU Pan, WU Yao. Construction Sequence of Urban Rail Transit System Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2013, 13(4): 29-35.

郭延永，刘攀，吴瑶. 基于累计前景理论的城市轨道交通建设时序[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2013, 13(4): 29-35.

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract18609.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2013/V13/I4/29

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