Simulation Research on the Relationship between Driving Skills and Rear-end Accidents

Abstract

Abstract:

Drivers' skill associates highly with the occurrences of traffic rear-end accidents. In this paper, a microscopic simulation model is developed for rear- end collision simulation by adding reaction delay and operational error into the classic“optimal velocity model”. Then a scenario consists of two cars is researched through the simulation model to investigate the impact of the velocity, distance and drivers' skills upon the rear-end accident rate. Simulation results indicate that keeping safe distance is the most effective measures in prevention of crashes; while both response delay and operation error rate also pose obviously effects on the accident rate, but with different strengths and forms. These results are valuable for the studies on the mechanism and prevention of human-caused traffic accidents.

Key words: urban traffic, optimal velocity model, rear- end accident, safe- distance, reaction delay, operation error

摘要：

驾驶员驾驶水平与追尾事故发生有着密切的关系.本文以交通流仿真模型中的优化速度模型为基础，考虑驾驶员的反应时间与操作失误率两方面因素，建立了一种追尾事故的微观仿真模型.随后针对由两台车辆组成的场景，通过仿真实验研究了车速、车距及驾驶技能对追尾事故发生率的影响.仿真结果表明，依据车速保持合理距离是防止事故发生最有效的手段，而反应延迟与操作失误率对事故发生都有影响，并具有不同的影响程度与影响形式，同时给出了对驾驶员驾驶水平要求的一些建议.本文结果对于人因交通事故机理研究及人因交通事故的预防有一定参考价值.

关键词: 城市交通, 优化速度模型, 追尾事故, 安全车距, 反应延迟, 操作失误

CLC Number:

U495

LI Geng, JIA Ning, MAShou-feng. Simulation Research on the Relationship between Driving Skills and Rear-end Accidents[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015, 15(2): 96-101.

李庚，贾宁，马寿峰. 驾驶技能与追尾事故关系的仿真研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2015, 15(2): 96-101.

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract18964.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2015/V15/I2/96

References

[1] 任有，许洪国，李显生，等. 仿真追尾碰撞中驾驶员转向反应模型研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息，2007, 7(3):94-99. [REN Y, XU H G, LI X S, et al. Research on module of driver’s steering reaction upon simulative tail-crashing environment[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2007, 7(3):94-99.]

[2] 刘志强，王兆华，钱卫东. 基于速度的交通事故分析[J].中国安全科学学报，2005,15(11):35-38. [LIU Z Q, WANG Z H, QIAN W D. Analysis of traffic accidents based on speed[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2005,15(11):35-38.]

[3] Jinn TW. Using rough sets to explore the nature of occurrence of accidents[C]// The 85th Annual Meeting of TRB. Washington DC, USA: TRB, National Research Council, 2006.

[4] 张殿业，王武宏，曹琦，等. 驾驶员反应能力与最高时速的安全可靠性分析[J].中国公路学报，1998，11 (1):109-114. [ZHANG D Y, WANG W H, CAO Q, et al. Reliability analysis for response time of drivers with limit speed[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 1998,11(1):109-114.]

[5] 马明，严新平，吴超仲. 基于系统动力学的车辆追尾事故仿真分析模型[J]. 系统仿真学报，2009,21(11): 3161- 3165. [MA M, YAN X P, WU C Z. Simulation model for analyzing vehicle rear-end accident based on system dynamics[J]. Journal of System Simulation, 2009, 21(11):3161-3165.]

[6] Mehmood A, Saccomanno F, Hellinga B. Simulation of road crashes using systems dynamics[C]// The 80th Annual Meeting of TRB.Washington DC, USA: TRB, National Research Council, 2001.

[7] Moussa N. Car accidents in cellular automata models for one-lane traffic flow[J]. Physical Review E, 2003, 68(3): 036127.

[8] Huang DW, Wu YP. Car accidents on a single- lane highway[J]. Physical Review E, 2001, 63(2):022301.

[9] Bando M, Hasebe K. Dynamical model of traffic congestion and numerical simulation[J]. Physical Review E, 1995, 51(2):1035.

[10] Bando M, Hasebe K. Analysis of optimal velocity model with explicit delay[J]. Physical Review E, 1998, 58(5), 5429.

[11] Przybyla J, Taylor J, Jupe J, et al. Estimating risk effects of driving distraction: A dynamic errorable carfollowing model[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2014.

[12] Wagner P, Nagel K. Comparing traffic flow models with different number of "phases"[J]. The European. Physical Journal B, 2008, 63(3), 315-320.

[13] 马艳丽，娄彦江，王要武. 机动车驾驶员自身差错事故致因模型及应用[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息，2010,10(4):101- 105. [MA Y L, LOU Y J, WANG Y W. Road traffic accidents model and its application based on driver’s self-mistakes[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2010,10(4):101-105.]

[14] 王文清, 王武宏, 钟永刚, 等. 基于模糊推理的跟驰安全距离控制算法及实现[J], 交通运输工程学报, 2003, 3(1):72-75. [WANG W Q, WANG W H, ZHONG Y G, et al. Car-following safe distance control algorithm and implementation based on fuzzy inference[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2003, 3(1):72- 75.]

[15] 张展宏. 基于模拟器的驾驶员应急状态下刹车反应时间的研究[J]. 华北科技学院学报, 2009,6(3):27-30. [ZHANG Z H. Study on the driver critical reaction time in a braking response upon driver simulator[J]. Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology, 2009,6(3):27-30.]

[16] Caird J, Willness C, Steel P, et al. A meta-analysis of the effects of cell phones on driver performance[J]. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2008,40: 1282-1293.