Abstract:

In daily railway transportation organization, there are numerous uncertain factors. So it is crucial to consider the impacts of these factors on the wagon flow organization. In the train formation plan optimization, the fluctuation of wagon-flow is taken into account, assuming that they are subject to certain probability distribution. According to the given confidence level and the theory of chance constrained programming, and considering such limitations as the station and line capacity constraints, taken the minimal sum of the total consumption of wagon rally, the adaptation of additional total consumption and the total consumption for walking as an optimized target to establish the comprehensive optimization model of the train formation plan and wagon- flow path based on the fluctuation wagon- flow and design the improved branch and bound method based on the stochastic simulation to solve the model. The research shows that under the condition of wagon-flow fluctuation, the robustness of the optimal scheme of train formation plan is strong. What’s more, the larger the stochastic simulation scale is, the better the stability of the optimal scheme is.

Key words: railway transportation, comprehensive optimization, train formation plan, wagon- flow path, stochastic simulation, fluctuation

摘要：

在铁路日常运输组织中，存在大量的不确定因素，考虑这些因素对车流组织工作的影响至关重要.在列车编组计划优化中，考虑车流量的波动性，假设其服从一定的概率分布，根据事先给定的置信水平，按照机会约束规划理论，考虑车站和线路能力限制等约束，以车流集结总消耗、改编额外总消耗和总走行消耗之和最小为优化目标，建立基于车流量波动的列车编组计划与车流径路综合优化模型，设计基于随机模拟的改进分枝定界法对模型进行求解.研究表明：考虑车流量波动情况下的列车编组计划最优方案鲁棒性较强，而且随机参数的模拟规模越大，最优方案的稳定性越好.

关键词: 铁路运输, 综合优化, 列车编组计划, 车流径路, 随机模拟, 波动