Abstract:

In order to coordinate a contradiction between the energy consumption and economic growth in transportation, it’s important to study the decoupling relationship between the two with the quantitative analysis. Decoupling modal is used to study what decoupling status occurred, and refined LMDI modal is used to analyze main factors that influence the decoupling relationship. Taking Hebei Province as a case study shows that weak decoupling status occurred in most years, but there was a rebound trend in recent years. Transportation fixed assets investment and integrated transport structure factor play a negative role in decoupling status, and highway transportation is the greatest obstacle of the decoupling relationship. Meanwhile, technological progress is the main factor to promote the occurrence of decoupling, and highway transportation, railway transportation play a positive role in decoupling status.

Key words: integrated transportation, decoupling relationship, influencing factors, modified LMDI model, structure optimization

摘要：

为协调交通运输业能源消耗与经济增长之间的矛盾，实现行业发展对能源消耗的依赖性逐步减弱，采用脱钩模型对两者之间脱钩关系进行定量分析.同时，引入Cobb- Douglas 生产函数对传统LMDI模型进行改进，考虑综合运输结构的影响，进而对影响脱钩关系的主要因素进行分析.以河北省为案例进行实证研究发现，大多数年份均呈现弱脱钩状态，但近几年脱钩关系有反弹趋势.交通运输业固定资产投资、综合运输结构是阻碍脱钩的主要因素，其中，公路运输在综合运输结构对脱钩关系的阻碍方面作用最大；而技术进步是促进脱钩的主要因素，其中，公路运输、铁路运输对脱钩关系起主要促进作用.

关键词: 综合交通运输, 脱钩关系, 影响因素, 改进LMDI模型, 结构优化