Abstract:

Vulnerability is an important concept to reflect the performance of a system at face of a hazard. In order to show the vulnerability of civil aviation network systems under hazards as realistic as possible, we must consider the hazard spreading effect, i.e., hazard indirect impact in civil aviation networks reasonably and adequately. Based on recent studies on spatial vulnerability model, we analyze the characteristics of hazard spreading effect in civil aviation network detailedly, determine three key factors for calculating hazard indirect impact, including link between airport flights, distance between airports and failure threshold of airports, and specific method, then propose an improved spatial vulnerability model for civil aviation network. Finally, a case study on Chinese civil aviation network system is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the improved spatial vulnerability model.

Key words: air transportation, vulnerability, spatial hazard, hazard spreading effect, indirect impact

摘要：

脆弱性是表征1个系统面临灾害时行为表现的重要概念.要尽可能真实地反映民用航空网络面临空间灾害时的脆弱性水平，必须充分合理地考虑灾害影响在民用航空网络中的扩散效应，即灾害间接影响.在前期有关网络系统空间脆弱性研究的基础上，详细地分析了灾害影响在民用航空网络中扩散的特点，确定了计算灾害间接影响的3个关键因素，即机场航班连接关系、机场间距离和机场失效门限，提出了改进的民用航空网络空间脆弱性模型.之后，以中国民用航空网络系统为例开展了案例研究，验证了所改进模型的有效性.

关键词: 航空运输, 脆弱性, 空间灾害, 灾害扩散效应, 间接影响