The Curve Family of Vehicular Inter-green Time and Safety Reliability at Signalized Intersections

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to improve the safety of signalized intersections (hereinafter “intersections”), a approach to calculate the vehicular inter-green time based on safety reliability is put forward, and the curve family of vehicular inter-green time (VIGT) and safety reliability at intersections is drawn. Firstly, classical calculating methods of VIGT at intersections are summarized. Secondly, the calculating method VIGT based on safety reliability is modeled. Thirdly, based on Monte Carlo algorithm which can simulate the interactive process of reaction time and vehicular deceleration, the model is solved. Finally, according to the simulation results, the carve family of VIGT and safety reliability is drawn, which is under some typical intersection widths (15~35 m), vehicular speeds (15~40 km/h) and safety reliability values (50%~95% ). Results show that the core defect of classical calculating methods of VIGT is that they lacked the consideration of the randomness of vehicular behavior parameters in lane group. The VIGT is influenced by multiple factors and obey the normal distribution, in addition, the sensitivity analysis shows that the VIGT was the most sensitive to reaction time (32.46% ) and vehicular deceleration (24.68%). Considering safety reliability into the calculation process of VIGT, on the one hand, provides a new approach which is based on probability theory, on the other hand, lays the foundation of quantitatively assessing the safety of VIGT at intersections.

Key words: traffic engineer, inter-green time, reliability theory, safety reliability, Monte Carlo simulation, curve family

摘要：

为了提高信号控制交叉口(以下简称为“交叉口”)的安全性，提出一种基于安全可靠度的交叉口机动车绿灯间隔计算方法，并绘制面向工程应用的绿灯间隔—安全可靠度曲线簇. 首先，对经典的交叉口绿灯间隔计算方法进行了归纳；其次，推导出基于安全可靠度的绿灯间隔计算方法公式并对各影响因素进行敏感性分析；再次，基于Monte Carlo算法模拟反应时间与车辆减速度的交互过程，对模型进行求解；最后，根据模拟结果，绘制了典型交叉口宽度 (15~35 m)、车辆运行速度(15~40 km/h)及安全可靠度(50%~95%)取值下的交叉口绿灯间隔—安全可靠度曲线簇.结果表明：经典的交叉口绿灯间隔计算方法的核心缺陷在于未考虑车道组内车辆行为参数的随机性；交叉口绿灯间隔受多个因素影响且服从正态分布，绿灯间隔对反应时间(32.46%)及车辆减速度(24.68%)的敏感性最强.将安全可靠度引入绿灯间隔计算过程中，一方面提供了一种基于概率论的计算思路与方法，另一方面为定量地分析交叉口绿灯间隔的安全性提供了依据.

关键词: 交通工程, 绿灯间隔, 可靠性理论, 安全可靠度, Monte Carlo模拟, 曲线簇

CLC Number:

U491.4

JIANG Ze-hao, PAN Fei, WANG Tao, YANG Xiao-guang. The Curve Family of Vehicular Inter-green Time and Safety Reliability at Signalized Intersections[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2018, 18(5): 67-74.

江泽浩，潘飞，汪涛，杨晓光. 信号控制交叉口机动车绿灯间隔—安全可靠度曲线簇[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2018, 18(5): 67-74.

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URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract19697.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2018/V18/I5/67

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