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25 October 2018, Volume 18 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Decision-making Forum
Forum about Comprehensive Transportation System
Intelligent Transportation System and Information Technology
Systems Engineering Theory and Methods
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Decision-making Forum

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Development and Innovation of Urban Traffic Technology in the Future PENG Hong-qin, ZHANG Guo-wu 2018, 18(5): 1-4.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2468KB) ( )   With the development of mobile internet, big data and artificial intelligence, newly arisen modes of transportation means, service mode and management methods have emerged in urban traffic system, such as “sharing traffic”,“travel service by demand response”,“unmanned driving”,“urban traffic brain”, etc. The future transportation system will face the opportunities in innovative development, and will bring great challenges to the traditional transportation industry. The 52nd conference of “Traffic and Transportation 7+1 Forum” sets its theme as “Development and Innovation of Urban Traffic Technology in the Future”. It analyzes the prospect of booking transportation system, and discusses the core technologies of super traffic simulation system. The development, challenge and simulation technology of unmanned driving are analyzed. The function and application points of big data and artificial intelligent technology in urban intelligence development are explained. Related Articles | Metrics

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Toll Road PPP Project Risk Early Warning Based on Variable Weight Extension Matter-element and Evidence Theoies PAN Yan, MAO Teng-fei 2018, 18(5): 5-11.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3509KB) ( )   Risk is an important factor that affects the smooth landing and efficient operation of PPP project, and it is of vital importance for the success of the project to master its risk situation timely. For toll road PPP project, on the basis of literature study and questionnaire survey, the paper constructs the risk early warning index system, and designs a set of risk early warning model based on variable weight extension matter-element and evidence theories. Firstly, a model is built using the variable weight extension matter-element theory, the comprehensive correlation degree of project risk under different experts' perspective is calculated, and the basic reliability function is got after normalization processing. Then, the model is validated by discount coefficient method, and using the evidence theory to synthesize the basic reliability function, the final warning results is got. Taking a toll road PPP project in F provincial as a case to verify the model’s rationality and validity, which can provide reference for the risk early warning of toll road PPP project. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Adaptive Scheduling Strategy in Car-sharing System Based on Feedback Dynamic Pricing WANG Ning, SHU Ya-jing, TANG Lin-hao, ZHANG Wen-jian 2018, 18(5): 12-17.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3393KB) ( )   Car-sharing can meet the increasing travel needs of consumers, simultaneously solving traffic congestion caused by the large increase of private vehicle ownership. However, due to stochastic user travel, it is essential to solve system imbalance. Using the users through prince incentives is an excellent method for system balancing. Through 450 questionnaires, this paper studies how dynamic price influence users' behavior of picking up and returning vehicles. Then, using the principle of automatic control, a closed loop feed link to describe the adaptive scheduling strategy is built based on feedback dynamic pricing, where MBE (Mean Balancing Error) index is as the control variable. Finally, this paper takes the EVCARD electric car-sharing program in Shanghai as a case study to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptive scheduling strategy. As the result of the adaptive scheduling strategy, MBE index is reduced by 42%. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization of Reward and Punishment Mechanism for High-speed Railway Operation Safety Supervision System LI Ke-hong, ZHANG Ya-dong, GUO Jin 2018, 18(5): 18-25.  Abstract ( )   PDF (5359KB) ( )   In view of the entrusted transportation management model of high-speed railway (HSR) in China, the effective reward and punishment mechanism hasn’t been formed during operation for the safety supervision system of HSR. The evolutionary game theory is used to analyze the decisions made by State Railway Administration(SRA), HSR company and commissioned railways bureau(RB) during the operation safety supervision process of the system, through the optimization of the model under static scenario, three dynamic reward and punishment models is proposed respectively. The stability of the equilibrium point of these three models is analyzed and verified based on theoretical proof and System Dynamics (SD) simulation. The results show that under the optimized dynamic reward punishment scenario, the safety regulation rate of the SRA has decreased, in the meantime, safety supervision rate of HSR and safety investment rate of commissioned RB is improved effectively. The optimum state in the long term game process of three parties is achieved. This is beneficial for the perfection of entrusted transportation management system and the operation safety level of HSR. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Forum about Comprehensive Transportation System

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The Coupling Relationship between Integrated Transport Superiority and Regional Economic Performance in China-ASEAN CHEN Xiao-hong, ZHANG Xie-kui, CHEN Shi-miao, ZHANG Lian 2018, 18(5): 26-31.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2363KB) ( )   There is a coupling between integrated transport superiority and regional economic. Based on provincial-level panel data, this study takes China-ASEAN as a case and its 11 counties as basic unit for analysis. Choosing 3 indexes, including integrated transport network density, infrastructure construction quality level, integrated transport accessibility, constitute the multiple attribute decision making model to evaluate integrated transport superiority degree firstly. Then, by utilizing GIS technology, this paper studies spatial characteristic of integrated transport network in China-ASEAN. The results show that: the spatial distribution patterns of transport superiority and regional economic performance are coherent, and there are positive relations between them in China-ASEAN; the level of coordinated development between integrated transport and regional economic is obviously different. Moreover, the quality level of comprehensive transportation infrastructure in most countries is relatively backward, and the comprehensive traffic superiority is generally in a low development level and its supporting effect for economic development is not yet fully. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Nested Logit Model for the Joint Choice of Seaport, Inland Mode and Dry Port JIANG Xiao-dan, FAN Hou-ming, ZHANG Yan-xue, CHEN Zhi-wei 2018, 18(5): 32-37.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3421KB) ( )   To describe the seaport, inland mode and dry port choice, this paper identifies factors including seaport cost, waiting time, ship calls, goods value, freight volume, transport cost, transit and custom clearance time, reliability and dry port service as utility variables. The nested Logit model is built, with seaport choice on the upper layer and inland mode and dry port choice on the lower layer. The data from a combined stated preference and revealed preference survey of shippers and freight forwarders in Liaoning Province is used to calibrate the parameters. The results show that low freight volume prefers road transport. Transport cost, transit and custom clearance time are more valued in intermodal transport than in road transport. Reliability is more valued in road transport than in intermodal transport. Dry port service has a significant positive effect on intermodal transport. The nested Logit model is statistically more accurate than the MNL model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Passenger Flow Assignment Model Considering the Attraction Areas of Multiple Access Modes for Urban Rail Transit Stations ZHANG Si-jia, JIA Shun-ping, WANG Yu-qiong, LI Jun, ZHANG Tong 2018, 18(5): 38-45.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4576KB) ( )   Aiming at the choice behavior of travelers in multi-mode network connecting dwelling district and urban rail transit stations, the calculation method of the trip time cost in the multi-mode network is improved, which considered the influences of multiple access modes’attraction areas for urban rail transit stations on choice behavior of the travelers. Then a passenger flow assignment model based on Logit-SUE is established and an example is given compared with the existing method. Finally, the influences of the perceptive coefficient to the trip cost θ, the increasing coefficient of trip distance β and the parking distance of shared bicycles l?bike on the choice probabilities of different access modes are given. Analysis results indicate that when θ is bigger, the choice probabilities of access modes with low costs are bigger. At the same time, with the gradual increase of β, the distance between dwelling district and the urban rail transit station increases, it leads to the decrease of the choice probability of walking mode and the bus access mode has the opposite trend, meanwhile, the choice probability of bicycle mode increases first and then decreases. Finally, the larger the l?bike, the farther the bicycles are parked, and the choice probability of bicycle mode is reduced, and both the bus mode and the walking mode have the opposite changing trend. And with the increase of l?bike, the influence degree of l?bike on the choice probability of the bicycle access mode increases first and then decreases. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Intelligent Transportation System and Information Technology

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Market Penetration of ATIS Influences Travel Time Reliability of Bounded Rationality User WEI Qing-qi, XIAO Wei 2018, 18(5): 46-52.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4236KB) ( )   Since the travel time reliability is the primary basis for reference point setting in cumulative prospect routing algorithm, there is a question that does ATIS help to improve the reliabilities of path, OD and the whole network. This study develops a two-class user equilibrium model, in which one class of users follow the rule of max cumulative arrival time perception value, the others follow the rule of max path reliability. This paper examines the relationship between the market penetration of ATIS and travel time reliability in a network with both stochastic degradable links and cumulative prospect routing users. The result shows that the increasing of the market penetration of ATIS can improve the travel time reliabilities of path, OD and the whole network. It helps to increase the value of travel time reliabilities in a smooth traffic. But, a maximum rate of ATIS market penetration may cause low reliability in congestion. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Location Security Analysis of Urban Expressway Based on Internet Data ZHANG Xing-qiang, LIU Xue, ZHU Yi-yan, SONG Yong-gang, WANG Xin, WANG Xue-yuan 2018, 18(5): 53-59.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3745KB) ( )   Most urban traffic safety analysis considered accident’s direct losses, but neglected accident’s indirect losses such as traffic delay, and seldom used internet big data. Based on internet text data, a traffic accident attribute model of urban expressway is established, and the accident impact rank of traffic flow is classified by the fuzzy system clustering method. An equivalent accident frequency model considering absolute accident frequency, accident consequence and accident impact to traffic flow is proposed and used to location safety combined evaluation of urban expressway based on cumulative frequency curve and K-means clustering method. The evaluation results of Beijing expressway location safety show that the method could effectively apply the internet safety text data to urban traffic safety analysis and the evaluation conclusions could provide the beneficial references for urban traffic safety management. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Trip-purpose-identification Based on Taxi Operating Data and POI Data LUO Xiao-ling, JIANG Yang-sheng 2018, 18(5): 60-66.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3991KB) ( )   An effective trip-purpose-identification method is proposed based on taxi operating data and POI (point of interest) data to obtain the trip purpose of taxi passengers. A trip-purpose-identification model on the account of trip characteristic and type of drop-off points, which determines the destinations of taxi passengers from two aspects including trip characteristic and POI type of possible destinations. To verify the validity and practicability of the proposed method, an investigation into servicing taxi in Chengdu is launched, and the accuracy of the proposed model is verified by exploiting collected data. It turns out that the proposed method, decision-making tree plus POI(II), can improve the ultimate identification accuracy up to 15.76% compared with the existing method that deduces trip purpose upon trip characteristic. Finally, the proposed method is successfully applied to identify the trip purposes of actual one-week operation data, containing 219 942 taxi passengers, which implies this method can be applied into trip purpose identification with large-scale operation data. The proposed method can be used as an assistant method to trip survey. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Curve Family of Vehicular Inter-green Time and Safety Reliability at Signalized Intersections JIANG Ze-hao, PAN Fei, WANG Tao, YANG Xiao-guang 2018, 18(5): 67-74.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4526KB) ( )   In order to improve the safety of signalized intersections (hereinafter “intersections”), a approach to calculate the vehicular inter-green time based on safety reliability is put forward, and the curve family of vehicular inter-green time (VIGT) and safety reliability at intersections is drawn. Firstly, classical calculating methods of VIGT at intersections are summarized. Secondly, the calculating method VIGT based on safety reliability is modeled. Thirdly, based on Monte Carlo algorithm which can simulate the interactive process of reaction time and vehicular deceleration, the model is solved. Finally, according to the simulation results, the carve family of VIGT and safety reliability is drawn, which is under some typical intersection widths (15~35 m), vehicular speeds (15~40 km/h) and safety reliability values (50%~95% ). Results show that the core defect of classical calculating methods of VIGT is that they lacked the consideration of the randomness of vehicular behavior parameters in lane group. The VIGT is influenced by multiple factors and obey the normal distribution, in addition, the sensitivity analysis shows that the VIGT was the most sensitive to reaction time (32.46% ) and vehicular deceleration (24.68%). Considering safety reliability into the calculation process of VIGT, on the one hand, provides a new approach which is based on probability theory, on the other hand, lays the foundation of quantitatively assessing the safety of VIGT at intersections. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Congestion Status Recognition of Road Network Based on Traffic Situation Analysis of Online Map ZHANG Jian-xu, GUO Li-wei 2018, 18(5): 75-81.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3809KB) ( )   In order to realize the real-time congestion status recognition of road network, based on the historical travel delay index of online maps, this paper identifies the transmitted congestion with the time sequence, duration threshold and the relation to traffic movements and flow in the effective congestion state of adjacent sections, and identifies the system congestion of the single section with the threshold of frequency and duration of congestion. Accordingly, the collection Nmax of system congestion sections in a specific period is determined. Calculate the degree of the transmitted system congestion by using the travel delay index at the time t of the adjacent sections and the Pearson correlation coefficient of the duration of its adjacent congestion during its collection range; Calculate Dt S? by the travel delay index at the time t of non-transmitted congestion sections. Combine the former two to get the comprehensive degree DtN of road network system congestion, and find the degree of ultimate congestion within this period. The real-time travel delay index of sections and the number of real-time congested sections in N max are compared with the corresponding values of ultimate congestion state to calculate the degree of the realtime congestion. The experiment shows that this method can reflect the formation regularities of road network system congestion, and realize the rapid recognition of real-time congestion status of road network. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Systems Engineering Theory and Methods

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Cascading Failure Resistance of Urban Rail Transit Network LIU Zhao-yang, LV Yong-bo, LIU Bu-shi, LI Qian, LV Wan-jun 2018, 18(5): 82-87.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3691KB) ( )   Urban rail transit lines and stations are interconnected and closely linked. The node failure spreads rapidly in the network, causing a wide range of congestion and affecting the normal operation of the entire network. Firstly, combined with the characteristics of rail transit, the cascading failure phenomenon of urban rail transit network is analyzed. The improved edge weight function is applied to analyze the change of node state, and then the reassignment of traffic is generated. Then, the cascaded failure model of urban rail transit network is established, and the network failure scale and damage degree are used to evaluate it. The cascaded failure process is simulated and the cascading failure resistance of urban rail traffic network under different failure strategies is analyzed. Finally, the Beijing rail transit network is taken as an example to carry out an empirical study. The results of this paper have important reference significance for the rational planning, structural optimization and operation safety of the rail transit network. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Subway-based Distribution Network Routing Optimization Problem with Time Windows ZHOU Fang-ting, ZHANG Jin, ZHOU Guo-hua 2018, 18(5): 88-94.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3681KB) ( )   In order to cope with the increasing freight demand and the driving problems of trucks, the subway distribution network based on trains and distribution vehicles is put forward, which integrated both subway network and road network. Considering the restrictions on train schedule, customer service time windows, and distribution vehicles capacity, the routing optimization model with time windows under subway-based distribution network is constructed. The model aimed at optimizing the customer assignment in each train and export station, and the route of terminal distribution. An iterative search algorithm with random variable neighborhoods is designed to solve the problem. The practicality and efficiency of the model and algorithm are verified by case of subway line 3 in Chengdu, China. The results show that the subway distribution network can satisfy more precise service requirements than truck distribution because of lower distribution cost, higher punctuality and shorter distribution distance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Road Network Partition Algorithm Considering Connectivity LU Shou-feng, TAO Li-ming, JIANG Yong-dong 2018, 18(5): 95-102.  Abstract ( )   PDF (5479KB) ( )   Aiming at the deficiency of the traditional K-means clustering algorithm in the application of heterogeneous road network partition, the connectivity of road network is incorporated into the proposed algorithm to solve the problem of discontinuous clustering results. First, we use the max-min distance algorithm to determine the initial clustering center and links’difference, and use the clustering evaluation indexANSK to determine the value of K. Then, we count the dynamic frequency of road network partition results in continuous time intervals, and the unstable "noise" links are merged or split for improving the compactness of the road network in subareas. Last, based on the measured data of automatic number plate recognition in real road network, the improved clustering method is tested in this paper. The partition results of the improved algorithm are compared with the traditional K-means clustering algorithm and Ncut algorithm. Also, the macroscopic fundamental diagram is created to analyze the subarea. The results show that the improved K-means clustering algorithm can effectively implement the road network partition with the connectivity constraint. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evaluation Method of Bus Energy Consumption Based on Service Level XU Long, LIU Ying, ZHANG Jian-bo, WU Ke-han 2018, 18(5): 103-110.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4323KB) ( )   Based on the data of Beijing bus operation and energy consumption, the characteristic relationship of bus service level and energy consumption are quantified from the perspective of bus types, travel speed, load rate, and bus lanes. The research shows that there is negative correlation between the bus speed and the energy consumption per 100 km, but an obvious negative correlation between bus loaded rate and the energy consumption per 10 000 passenger-kilometers. For different bus types, the energy consumption per 100 km of the single bus is about 30%~40% less than that of the double decker bus, but the energy consumption per 10 000 passengerkilometers of the single bus is about 5%~15% higher than that of the double decker bus. Finally, using the travel speed and load rate as the main parameters, the energy consumption model of bus based on the service level is constructed and applied for case study of bus energy conservation. The result indicates that when the loaded rate is above 60%, the decrease of energy consumption per 10 000 passenger-kilometers is slowing down. And when the average travel speed is lower than 40 km/h, increasing speed of buses can reduce energy consumption per capita. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Traffic Speed Dispersion on Urban Expressways：The Characteristics and its Influence Factors LIU Ying-ying, LI Jian, CHEN Xiao-hong 2018, 18(5): 111-120.  Abstract ( )   PDF (6240KB) ( )   The characteristics of traffic speed dispersion is an important indicator for measuring the safety and efficiency of urban expressways. This study aims to analyze the characteristics and its influence factors of traffic speed dispersion on urban expressways in Shanghai, China. The individual vehicle speed data collected by Shanghai Vehicle License Plate Recognition System. The standard deviation of individual vehicle speeds is used as the measure of traffic speed dispersion, and analyzed in the theory framework of stochastic fundamental diagrams. The results show that the standard deviations of individual vehicle speeds are 5~15 km/h, which are larger than the values of aggregated vehicle speeds. The dispersions are trending downward slowly with the increase of traffic density, and can be grouped into four patterns according to the distribution of standard deviations scatters. In addition, multiple linear regression model is used to identify the influence factors of speed dispersions, e.g. “number of lanes”and“type of ramp”. The results may enrich the theory of fundamental diagram and might be considered for improving the safety and efficiency of urban expressways. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Real-time Forecasting of Urban Rail Transit Ridership at the Station Level Based on Improved KNN Algorithm HUAN Ning, XIE Qiao, YE Hong-xia, YAO En-jian 2018, 18(5): 121-128.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3801KB) ( )   Driven by the data characteristics of high-dimensionality and multi-interference, an improved Knearest-neighbor (KNN) algorithm is proposed to realize real-time forecasting of urban rail transit ridership at the station level. Firstly, a self-correlation analysis on historical passenger flow is conducted to determine a reasonable state vector for samples. Then, the traditional pattern matching process in KNN is primarily modified to adapt to the data characteristics. Specifically, the noise perturbations in raw time series are eliminated to a great extent with the approach of key point segmentation, and time alignment is introduced to the similarity measurement to account for the morphological feature of series. Furthermore, in order to capture the flow fluctuations in a short period, the distance-based weight and trend coefficient of matched template samples are employed to make further correction on forecast results. Finally, the automated fare collection (AFC) data of Guangzhou metro system is used for performance evaluation of proposed method. The results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of all granularities in one day for entire 159 stations is 11.6%, which could provides effective foundation data support for network monitoring. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Online Estimation Method for Passenger Flow OD of Urban Rail Transit Network by Using AFC Data JIANG Xi, JIA Fei-fan, FENG Jia-ping 2018, 18(5): 129-135.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4184KB) ( )   The real-time passenger flow of the urban rail transit network is the main basis for the scientific decision-making of the daily operation organization. The timely and accurate online estimation of the passenger flow OD is a prerequisite. The problem of passenger flow OD online dynamic estimation by using real-time AFC data is analyzed. A dynamic estimation method for passenger flow OD combined with machine learning and recursive Bayes is proposed; the LSTM based OD state transfer model and the passenger flow OD recursive Bayesian estimation model embedded with the LSTM model are constructed. Considering the nonlinearity and uncertainty of the OD dynamic state, a particle filter based method is proposed to solve the OD recursive Bayesian estimation problem. Oriented to the third-order Markov process of state transition formed by the LSTM model embedding, the general particle filter algorithm is extended in high order and the implementation of the algorithm is studied. Finally, an example is used to verify the method proposed in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Bus Travel Time Prediction Based on Extreme Learning Machine SONG Xian-min, LIU Ming-xin, MA Lin, XIA Ying-ji 2018, 18(5): 136-142.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3981KB) ( )   A travel time prediction model of Extreme Learning Machine is established based on the bus GPS data. According to the characteristics of GPS data near the station, the critical point of bus arrival is defined. Through analyzing 5 running states of the vehicle at critical point, the estimation method of bus arrival time is proposed, and then get the bus travel time data. By analyzing the travel time data features of the bus, the key parameters and its number are determined. Finally, the GPS data of the 88 bus in Changchun city are taken to verification. The results show that the prediction error of the ELM method is about 11%. Compared with BP neural network, RBF neural network and SVM which are widely used, the ELM method has faster training speed and prediction reliability under the premise of satisfying the accuracy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Location Method of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Based on Data Driven YANG Zhen-zhen, GAO Zi-you 2018, 18(5): 143-150.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4935KB) ( )   Electric vehicle plays an important role in alleviating the pressure of energy and environmental pollution. Inconvenient charging is one of the main reasons for restricting the development of electric vehicles. To reasonably locate the electric vehicle charging stations, this paper presents a location method of electric vehicle charge station based on data driven. Potential traffic demand, including traffic origin and destination are extracted with massive location data. Map is divided into grids with the same interval. Traffic demand of each grid is calculated. Grids with large traffic demand are selected as the alternative location for electric charging station. Empirical study shows that the proposed method can accurately locate the potential user demand, which can provide data support and decision-making basis for the location of electric vehicle charging station. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Container Storage Strategies Research Based on Synchronization of Customers’ Retrieval Processes ZHOU Si-fang, ZHANG Qing-nian 2018, 18(5): 151-157.  Abstract ( )   PDF (445KB) ( )   Container reshuffle problem(CRP) is always one of the important factors that affect the efficiency of container terminal yard operation. Optimizing stacking order of unloading containers is the precondition to reduce the reshuffle ratio of imported container. The customers’ behavioral characteristics are extracted from the data of history operation data of the container terminal by data mining technologies, and a method, customer’s picking-up synchronization degree is designed to measure the synchronicity of customers’ retrieval processes. The unloading containers are regrouped based on the customers’ picking-up synchronization degree and their retrieval orders are predicted by the estimation of their retrieval time interval. According to the principle of the same group containers stacking nearly, an integer programming model of container slots assignment with the optimal objective of balancing the container volumes among various blocks and minimizing overlapping amounts in each bay is proposed. Numerical experiments show that the proposed storage strategy has more remarkable improvement than the current storage strategies in reducing the reshuffle ratio and the occupancy rate of the ground slots. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Air Route Potential Value Calculation Model Based on Passenger Travel Intention XU Tao, XU Zhao-peng, LU Min 2018, 18(5): 158-163.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3526KB) ( )   Traditional air route value calculation is based on statistical passenger flow, ignoring the value information of passenger preference which would influence potential value of air route. In order to solve this problem, an air route potential value calculation model based on passenger travel intention is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the maximum likelihood estimation method is used to quantify the passenger preference in this model, and then the concept of a travel intention is introduced to classify the passengers travel behavior, and the Gibbs Sampling method is used to quantify the travel intention. Finally, the purpose of calculating the potential value of air route is realized. Experiments on passenger booking data of China civil aviation show that the similarity between the air routes value sequences in 2010 and 2011 respectively obtained by proposed model is much higher than that obtained by the statistical passenger flow method, and the mining accuracy on top 5 of highvalue air routes reaches 100%. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Wagon-flow Allocation Based on Freight Delivery Time Frame in Marshalling Station LI Sheng-dong, XU Chang-an, LV Hong-xia, LI Wen-xin 2018, 18(5): 164-169.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1328KB) ( )   The delivery time frame is a key issue of railway freight transport organization. It is of great significance to improve the quality and competitiveness of railway freight transportation by guaranteeing the delivery time frame. This paper takes the dynamic wagon-flow allocation in marshalling station as the research object. Considering the difference between different goods on the timeliness of transportation, the minimum weighted sum of the residence time of each car is took as the optimization objective. And the mean proportion distribution method is used to assign the delivery time frame to the marshalling station operation link of the freight transport, which becoming the maximum residence time constraint. At the same time, considering the constraints of marshalling destination, a comprehensive optimization model of shunting operation plan and wagon-flow allocation plan based on delivery time frame is established. The simulation annealing algorithm is designed to solve the model. Finally, the case study shows that the model and algorithm in this paper can effectively solve the dynamic wagon-flow allocation problem and satisfy the delivery time frame requirements of wagon-flow. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Wagon-flow Allocating Model in Marshalling Station Based on Resource Availability XUE Feng, ZHAO Lei, YANG Li-rong 2018, 18(5): 170-177.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4458KB) ( )   The wagon-flow allocating is the key content part of the stage plan. If the operation is carried out by the resource with higher availability, the probability of completion by plan can be increased to a large extent. The idle degree and reliability of entity resources of marshalling station are analyzed, and the availability calculation method of marshalling station resources is designed. On the basis of this, the dynamic wagon-flow allocating model of marshalling stations based on resource availability is established based on the maximum resource availability of marshalling stations. An example is selected and the results show that: after the optimization of the model, the increase of resource availability of the system is more than 5%; compared with the break-up system, the availability of marshalling system is improved more obviously; the increase of resource availability of the marshalling system is about 18.9% in the interval of 3~8. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Energy-saving Operation Optimization for High-speed Train in Multi-interstation MA Cun-rui, MAO Bao-hua, BAI Yun, WANG Min, LI Jia-jie, YANG Yan-qiang 2018, 18(5): 178-183.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3618KB) ( )   The running time and operation method are two important factors for realizing high-speed train energysaving operation. In this paper, a multi-interstation energy-saving operation method for high-speed train with adjustable running time supplement is constructed. Considering the requirement difference in the arrival time of high-speed train arriving at hub station and non-hub station, the model added to the constraint that the train arrival time is the same as the fixed arrival time in timetabling for hub station, and the constraints in the time range of the arrival time of the train arriving at non-hub station. In order to avoid the situation that a number of unfeasible solutions unsatisfied the timing constraints in the solution space might have defect on the algorithm efficiency, a three layer coded genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model in the paper. Through the verification of a highspeed railway line including 3 hub stations and 3 non-hub stations, the results show that the multi-interstation energy-saving operation method for high-speed train proposed in the paper could obtain the optimal multiinterstation energy-saving speed trajectory, when ensure that the arrival time of hub station is the same as the time in timetabling and the arrival time of the non-hub train station is within a certain time range. Compared with the calculation results based on the acceleration-cruising method and single interstation energy-saving operation method in the paper under the running time in timetabling, the proposed method could save more than 16% and 4% energy respectively. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Hybrid Heterogeneity Model for Access Mode Choice of Railway Departure Passengers ZHU Hai, LUO Xia, LIU Yong-hong, CHEN Xin 2018, 18(5): 184-190.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3982KB) ( )   This paper focuses on the access mode choice of railway departure passengers on account of the phenomenon of attribute preference and attribute process heterogeneity in multi-attributes decisions. The expressions of attribute preference and attribute process heterogeneity in utility function are analyzed and a hybrid heterogeneity Logit model is formulated. Stated preference data for departure passengers of Chengdu east railway station are utilized in model estimations, and the results indicate that the model fit of the hybrid model is better than that of mono heterogeneity models. Comparisons between the self-statement shares of attribute process heterogeneity and estimation results of model class probabilities show the goodness of calibrations that hybrid model has in attribute process heterogeneity. Moreover, the analysis of parameter estimation results in hybrid model also show its sophistication in calibrations of passengers’access mode choice behaviors. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Choice Behavior of Bike-sharing Based on Nested Logit Model YUAN Peng-wei, DONG Xiao-qing, ZHAI Huai-yuan, XU Jia 2018, 18(5): 191-196.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3112KB) ( )   In the past two years, bike-sharing have developed rapidly. However, few studies have clarified the choice behavior of bike- sharing from a microscopic perspective. Based on the random utility theory, a Nested Logit model is constructed to study the choice behavior of bike- sharing in this paper. We selected travel destination, access time, travel time, parking time, cost from trip characteristics, and selected raining (snowing), air quality, temperature and wind level from weather conditions, and selected age, gender and income from socioeconomic attributes as the explanatory variables for the utility function. The D-optimal method is used to design a questionnaire and an empirical survey is conducted in Jinan. Based on the collected samples, the parameters are identified to find the key factors affecting the choice of travel mode. The elasticities analysis of the ride cost and access time of shared bicycles explain the impact of changes in travel expenses and access time on travel mode choice. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Berth Scheduling Scheme Optimization Based on Dynamic Learning WANG Jun, GUO Li-ming, DU Jian, WANG Mei-rong 2018, 18(5): 197-203.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4074KB) ( )   Berth scheduling scheme for the dwelling vessels in the port is thoroughly determined by the present berths occupied and the estimated handling time of those mooring vessels. However, as the estimation on berth handling time for each vessel is heavily affected by weather and tide etc. and all the influences are fluctuated dynamically by time. Thus the berth scheduling scheme seldom meets the requirements in practice. In this paper, the dynamic learning method is proposed to update the calculation function of handing time, and then the berth scheduling scheme is optimized based on the updated function. A parallel algorithm is designed where the dynamic learning for handling time and optimization for berth scheduling scheme are included. The former provides the updated calculation function for the latter, and the actual execution results of the latter provide learning samples for the former. The effectiveness of the model is verified by examples. The results represent that the calculation deviation of handling time can be reduced by adding the dynamic learning process; and in the optimization scheme, the mean value of handling time is reduced by 2.4 hours and the total cost is reduced by 11.1%. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization of the Minimum Radius Index of Mountain Road Curve Based on Driving Stability YUE Lei, DU Yu-chuan, YAO Hong-yun 2018, 18(5): 204-210.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4442KB) ( )   Optimizing the value of minimum radius index is an important measure to improve the security of mountain road. Based on the analysis of the driving dynamics of vehicle running in curve, a security model under the restrictive condition of accident is established in this paper. It is also theoretically discussed that the relationship among minimum radius of curve, superelevation, and lateral adhesion coefficient at different speeds. The correctness of the security model is proved by Carsim simulation software. The results show that: the curve design should focus on avoiding lateral slipping of the vehicle; the minimum radius of the curve is inversely proportional to the value of the ultra-high and lateral adhesion coefficient, and proportional to the speed, but the minimum radius of the curve is independent of the vehicle parameters. Furthermore, the optimization proposal for the minimum radius index of mountain road curve is also proposed. In the actual design and application, the minimum radius index of the curve should be checked according to the predicted maximum running speed value and the lateral adhesion coefficient value of the curve. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Driver's Dynamic Decision Car-following Model and Speed Limit in Plateau Extra-long Tunnel HU Li-wei, CHEN Zheng, ZHANG Ting, HU Cheng-yu 2018, 18(5): 211-218.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4161KB) ( )   In order to study the car-following characteristics and driver decision-making behavior in plateau extratunnel long tunnel, and get optimizing limit speed values on tunnel, the car-following test of the extra-long tunnel is carried out in Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau area. Driver’s acceleration and deceleration decision model is built for plateau extra-tunnel long tunnel, using to analyze the driver’s decision. This paper proposes the local optimal utility concept, and builds the model of local optimum of driver’s dynamic car-following decision through the collision avoidance model, driver’s perception speed model and driver’s acceleration and deceleration decision model, to simulate diver’s optimal decision. The research results show that: the driver tends to keep a greater following distance in the area of extra-long tunnel’s entrance and export; the driver's dynamic decision carfollowing model based on local optimum has a good performance on simulating optimal car-following behavior; and then the maximum speed limit of the tunnel section is optimized according to the decision behavior of its speed. The obtained results are helpful for improving the state of traffic safety in tunnel section. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Estimation of Automobile Emissions in Tourism Oriented Towns Based on Operating Modes Investigations LI Jia, HE Han-hui, PENG Bo 2018, 18(5): 219-225.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4269KB) ( )   It is critical to prepare the actual operating mode for accurate emission estimation. The study is based in Shaoshan, China, where second by second GPS trajectory data of automobiles, driven by local drivers or tourists, is collected on different road types. The operating mode distributions are obtained and input into MOVES, and a procedure, which divide the automobile activity first and then integrate them, is applied to figure out the emission rate, which is then used to evaluate the emission reductions by traffic control and management measures. The major findings are as follows. There will be much error in emission result by using the default operating mode distribution in MOVES. Automobiles driven by local drivers are featured with higher average speed and more widely dispersed VSP distributions when compared to those by the tourists. The differences in operating modes lead to a higher emission rate of local drivers on all road types when compared to the tourists, especially on roads of scenic areas. It is discovered that about 73%~78% of emissions are reduced in August 2016 due to the implementation of the tourists transfer project in Shaoshan. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Three-dimensional Constrained Gravity Model Based on Population Characteristics TANG Yan-li, ZHENG Bo-hong, LIU Lu-yun, JIANG Chao 2018, 18(5): 226-232.  Abstract ( )   PDF (4346KB) ( )   The double-constrained and the existing tri-constrained gravity model deal with the travel resistance of different populations in an average way, and it is significantly different from the actual situation. According to the different cognition degree of different people on trip impedance, the improved method of tri-constrained gravity model based on crowd characteristics is put forward. In the trip generation process, different groups of people are separated, and the travel volume forecasting algorithms for different populations are designed. During the improvement of gravity model, the crowd volume is classified and the corresponding scaling factor is calibrated according to the acceptance degree of different crowd to the third constrain. The long distance travel constraint analysis in the model of traffic distribution of Yueyang is taken as an example. The feasibility and superiority of the improved tri-constrained gravity model are approved by the forecasting result compared with traditional doubleconstrained gravity model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Design and Evaluation of City Tail Number Limit Scheme Based on Big Data ZHANG Xiao-yang, XU Tao, ZHANG Yi-hua, ZHANG Lei 2018, 18(5): 233-240.  Abstract ( )   PDF (5918KB) ( )   In order to improve the design and evaluation level of the city car tail number limit plan, a unified and standardized design process is formulated. The travel purposes are divided into five categories, such as home basic work, home basic school, home basic shopping, home basic other and basic family and non-home base trip. The road network operation evaluation model is established by 6 indexes, such as the distance, the improvement of the number of the sections, the quantity of the node improvement, the balance of the flow and the difficulty of implementation. The quantitative analysis of the evaluation indexes is realized. The proposed model is verified based on the large traffic data in Chongqing. The results show that the Chongqing management department has implemented the best plan according to the evaluation. After the implementation of the scheme, the actual running speed and the congestion mileage of the bridge are 23.8 km/h and 171 km. The relative error of the model prediction is 2.9% and 5.2% . The prediction accuracy is high, and the practical application requirements are reached, which can provide a certain reference for other city tail number limit. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Model of Freight Vehicle Energy Consumption Based on Pearson Correlation Coefficient CAI Jing, ZHANG Ming-hui, ZHU Yu-ting, LIU Yu-huan 2018, 18(5): 241-246.  Abstract ( )   PDF (3517KB) ( )   Based on the survey data of freight vehicles for several years, this paper carries out the multiple regression analysis on 100 km energy consumption of single-vehicles by Pearson correlation coefficient and determines three key influence factors of the fuel consumption per hundred kilometers of freight vehicles by related degree, and quantify every factor’s effect. Using the results of the quadratic regression to establish 100 km fuel consumption model for single vehicle, the high-precision fitting of discrete fuel consumption of freight vehicles is achieved under the complex factors. Meanwhile, after compared with Beijing’s freight statistics on energy consumption and analyzed the typical cases under the impact of policies, the response to each factor variable under the influence of policies is verified, the accuracy of quantitative calculation of fleet energy consumption is defined, and the analysis on the variation characteristics of freight energy consumption under pollutant emission reduction policy is obtained, which provides the support for the refined energy consumption measurement and calculation in freight industry. References | Related Articles | Metrics