Abstract:

Since the travel time reliability is the primary basis for reference point setting in cumulative prospect routing algorithm, there is a question that does ATIS help to improve the reliabilities of path, OD and the whole network. This study develops a two-class user equilibrium model, in which one class of users follow the rule of max cumulative arrival time perception value, the others follow the rule of max path reliability. This paper examines the relationship between the market penetration of ATIS and travel time reliability in a network with both stochastic degradable links and cumulative prospect routing users. The result shows that the increasing of the market penetration of ATIS can improve the travel time reliabilities of path, OD and the whole network. It helps to increase the value of travel time reliabilities in a smooth traffic. But, a maximum rate of ATIS market penetration may cause low reliability in congestion.

Key words: urban traffic, travel time reliability, market penetration of ATIS, cumulative prospect, multi-class user

摘要：

鉴于行程时间可靠性是累积前景择路模型参考点设置的首要依据，采用先进交通信息系统(ATIS)引导此类用户择路能否显著改善路径、OD和系统行程时间可靠性成为一个有意义的研究课题.对此，本文构建了基于双参考点累积到达时间价值择路模型与ATIS引导下路径行程时间最可靠择路模型的多类用户均衡网络，以研究随机退化路网中ATIS渗透率对双参考点有限理性用户行程时间可靠性的影响.结果表明，针对路径、OD和整个系统而言，通畅时，高渗透率能提高系统可靠性，并增加可靠性曲线的稳定性；但拥堵时，一定比例的渗透率能增加可靠性值，而高渗透率反而可能降低部分用户的可靠性.

关键词: 城市交通, 行程时间可靠性, ATIS渗透率, 累积前景理论, 多类用户