Identifying the Factors and Their Impact Levels on Severity of Maritime Traffic Accidents

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the investigation reports of maritime traffic accident, which were published by three maritime safety administrations, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, two kinds of ordered probability model (including the ordered Logit and the ordered Probit model) are established to identify the influencing factors and their impact levels on the severity of maritime traffic accidents (SMTA). The results show that the ordered probabilistic models are suitable for the study, but the ordered Logit model outperforms the ordered Probit model. In particular, the factors of season, time interval, weather, navigable waterways, vessel type, length and ownership have positive influences on larger and above accidents, while the influence of visibility is negative. Among them, the impact of the vessel length above 200 meters is the largest (marginal effect: 0.378 3), which followed by summer season (0.282 2). Meanwhile, the impact of poor visibility is smallest (- 0.108 0), which followed by individual vessels (0.109 5). Finally, the results can provide a decision basis for maritime safety administrations to carry out safety supervision work.

Key words: waterway transportation, impact level, ordered probability model, severity of maritime traffic accidents, marginal effect analysis

摘要：

关键词: waterway transportation, impact level, ordered probability model, severity of maritime traffic accidents, marginal effect analysis

CLC Number:

U698.6

WU Qin, SHI Xin, TAO Xue-zong. Identifying the Factors and Their Impact Levels on Severity of Maritime Traffic Accidents[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2019, 19(1): 185-191.

吴琴，施欣，陶学宗. 海事事故严重性影响因素及影响程度识别[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(1): 185-191.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2019/V19/I1/185

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