Abstract:

In recent years, the rapid development of ride-hailing service in China's cities may have a significant impact on the traditional way of travel. An important issue is how it will affect public transport. Based on the rational choice theory, this paper makes an empirical study using the relevant data from 109 cities. The heterogeneity analyses are also conducted according to the time of ride- hailing service entering the city and the category of the city. The results show that: the ride-hailing service has a significant negative impact on the use of urban public transport; as time goes on, the negative impact of ride- hailing service shows a law of first strengthening and then weakening; the negative impact of ride-hailing service is more serious in megacities. This study reveals the influence of ride-hailing on public transport in China’s cities, which can be used as a reference for traffic managers to make relevant policies.

Key words: urban traffic, use of public transport, difference in differences, ride-haling services, PSM-DID

摘要：

城市网约车服务的蓬勃发展对包括公共交通在内的传统出行方式将产生影响.本文针对公交使用量的影响问题，运用109个城市数据做实证分析，并从网约车进入时长和城市类别做异质性检验.研究结果表明：网约车服务进入城市对城市公交使用量有明显的负向影响，且负向影响在超大型城市中更为严重；随着时间推移，网约车服务对公交使用量的负向影响呈现先增强后减弱的规律.研究结论揭示了中国城市网约车对公交的影响规律，对交通管理者制定相关政策具有参考意义.

关键词: 城市交通, 公交使用量, 双重差分, 网约车服务, 倾向得分匹配&mdash, 双重差分法(PSMDID)