Impact of Manufacturing Offshoring and Reshoring on Development of Chinese Ports

Abstract

Abstract:

Over the past centuries, there have been great changes in the manufacturing industry around the world. With the progress of science and technology, the change of manufacturing cost, technology center and manufacturing center continually transferred and separated. In the 21st century, the rapid development of Chinese manufacturing industry has driven the growth of the volume of coastal ports. In recent years, influenced by the global manufacturing change, new trends of Chinese manufacturing industry commenced. On the one hand, manufacturing companies of developed countries restore to their native land. On the other hand, some laborintensive manufacturing companies offshore to southeast Asia whose cost of labor is lower compared with China. Consequently, the volume of manufacturing production will undoubtedly change to some extent, which will further affect the import and export volume and port throughput. This paper first analyzed the global manufacturing center's previous transfer situation and the characteristics of international cargo transport in different transfer stages. Secondly, the correlation between the throughput and the Chinese manufacturing industry is analyzed. Finally, the paper focused on the characteristics of the trend of offshoring manufacturing in China and the reshoring in the United States, and analyzed their influence on the development of Chinese ports. The results show that the throughput of Chinese ports is significantly correlated with the value- added of secondary industry, the bilateral trade volume between China and the United States and the total amount of China exports and other factors. Simultaneously, driven by the reduction of Chinese labor cost advantage and the reshoring policy of the U.S. manufacturing industry, the trend of offshoring of China's manufacturing industry will strengthen, and the reshoring trend of the U.S. manufacturing industry may be maintained. Considering the influence of offshoring and reshoring of manufacturing industry, the growth of Chinese port throughput will be weak, and the structure of the freight category will shift from dry bulk transportation to container transportation. In the future, Chinese ports should adjust the allocation of capacity and resources of collection and distribution. Consequently, priorities should be put on container transportation.

Key words: waterway transportation, port development, macro data analysis, manufacturing transfer, offshoring and reshoring, import and export trade

摘要：

过去百年来，全球范围内的制造业发生了巨大变革.随着科学技术的进步和制造成本的变化，技术中心和制造中心不断转移和分离.进入21世纪，我国制造业发展迅速，带动沿海港口运量规模的增长.近年来，受全球制造业变革的影响，我国制造业开始出现转移趋势. 一方面发达国家将其制造业企业从国外转移到本土，另一方面部分劳动密集型制造业向劳动力成本更低廉的东南亚等发展中国家及地区转移.制造业的这种转出无疑将导致制造业产出量的变化，进而引起我国未来进出口贸易量和港口吞吐量的变化.首先，分析了全球制造业中心历次转移情况及其引发的各转移阶段国际货物运输特征；其次，分析了我国港口吞吐量与制造业规模间的关联性；最后，结合制造业离岸和美国制造业回流趋势重点研究了离岸和回流对我国港口发展的影响.结果表明：我国港口货物吞吐量与第二产业增加值，中美双边贸易额，我国出口总额等因素具有显著相关性；同时，受我国劳动力成本优势降低及美国制造业回流政策驱动，制造业离岸动力增强，制造业回流趋势可能继续保持；考虑到制造业离岸和回流的影响，我国港口吞吐量增长乏力，货运品类结构将由干散货运输向集装箱运输倾斜.未来我国港口应调整资源和集疏运资源配置，大力发展集装箱运输.

关键词: 水路运输, 港口发展, 宏观数据分析, 制造业转移, 离岸和回流, 进出口贸易

CLC Number:

U651

SHAO Li-hua, LI Ning-hai, TANG Qing, SONG Li-ying, WANG Xin-chang. Impact of Manufacturing Offshoring and Reshoring on Development of Chinese Ports[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2020, 20(6): 47-56.

邵丽花，李宁海，唐清，宋丽英，王新昌. 制造业离岸和回流对我国港口发展的影响[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2020, 20(6): 47-56.

Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

URL: http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/abstract/abstract20147.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/EN/Y2020/V20/I6/47

References

[1] 邢锋. 基于全球价值链视角下我国制造业升级的影响因素及路径研究[D]. 南昌: 江西财经大学, 2020. [XING F. Research on the influencing factors and path of China's manufacturing upgrading based on GVC[D]. Nanchang: Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2020.]

[2] STEVE O. Manufacturing productivity & unit labor cost [DB/OL]. New York: Official Website of The Conference Board, (2018- 12- 31) [2020- 11- 15]. https: //www. conference-board.org/ilcprogram/.

[3] RESHORING INITIATIVE. A record 1389 companies announce the return of 145 000 jobs[R]. Illinois: Reshoring Initiative, 2019.

[4] 王丽娜. 美国制造业回流的实施效果分析及对我国外贸的影响[J]. 对外经贸, 2013, 3(9): 7-9. [WANG L N. Analysis of the implementation effect of American manufacturing industry reshoring and its influence on China's foreign trade[J]. Foreign Economic Relations & Trade, 2013, 3(9): 7-9.]

[5] 高晓春. 中国、美国历年制造业增加值(现价美元) 比较 [DB/OL]. 江苏: 高晓春, (2020-11-15) [2020- 11- 15]. https: //www. kylc. com/ stats/ global/ yearly_per_country/g_manufacturing_value_added/chnusa.html. [GAO X C. Comparison of the added value of manufacturing in China and the United States over the years (current US dollars) [EB/OL]. Jiangsu: GAO X C, (2020-11-15) [2020-11-15]. https: //www. kylc. com/ stats/ global/ yearly_ per_ country/ g_ manufacturing_ value_ added/ chn-usa.html.]

[6] 中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会. 关于中国的产业链和供应链是否出现外迁[DB/OL]. (2019-7-23) [2020- 11- 11]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fzggw/jgsj/zys/ sjdt/ 201907/ t20190723_970453. html. [National Development and Reform Commission. Whether Chinese industrial chain and supply chain have moved out[DB/OL]. (2019-7-23) [2020-11-11]. https://www. ndrc. gov. cn/ fzggw/ jgsj/ zys/ sjdt/ 201907/ t20190723_ 970453. html.]

[7] 张大龙. 美国制造业回流政策对中国出口的影响及应对策略 [J]. 对外经贸实务, 2020 27(6): 17- 20. [ZHANG D L. The impact of the U. S. manufacturing reflux policy on China's exports and countermeasures[J]. Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, 2020, 27(6): 17-20.]

[8] 高运胜, 杨阳 . 全球价值链重构背景下我国制造业高质量发展目标与路径研究 [J]. 经济学家, 2020, 32(10): 65- 74. [GAO Y S, YANG Y. Research on the goals and paths of China's manufacturing high quality development under the background of global value chain reconstruction[J]. Economist, 2020, 32(10): 65-74.]

[9] 刘振中. 制造业外迁对生产性服务业的影响及其机理研究:以广东省为例[J]. 宏观经济研究, 2020, 40(9): 5- 21, 35. [LIU Z Z. A study on the impact and mechanism of manufacturing migration on producer services: An example from Guangdong province[J]. Macroeconomics, 2020, 40(9): 5-21, 35.]

[10] 宋长利. 中国沿海港口群经济发展研究[D]. 沈阳: 辽宁大学, 2019. [SONG C L. Research on economic development of coastal port clusters in China[D]. Shenyang: Liaoning University, 2019.]

[11] 中国港口协会. 当前我国港口发展形势分析[J]. 港口科技, 2019, 27(1): 3- 7. [China Ports & Harbours Association. The analysis of current Chinese port development[J]. Port Science & Technology, 2019, 27 (1): 3-7.]

[12] DE PLEIJT A, NUVOLARI A, WEISDORF J. Human capital formation during the first industrial revolution: Evidence from the use of steam engines[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2020, 18(2): 829- 889.

[13] PAUL M K. The rise and fall of the great powers: Economic change and military conflict from 1500-2000 [M]. New York: Vintage Press, 1989.

[14] 真虹. 第三次工业革命对交通运输未来发展的影响 [J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2014, 14(1): 9- 13. [ZHEN H. The influence of the third industrial revolution on future transportation development[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2014, 14(1): 9-13.]

[15] China Entrepreneur Investment Club. Indicators[DB/ OL]. (2019-12-31)[2020-11-11]. https://www.ceicdata. com/en/indicators.

[16] JIN F J, CHEN Z. Evolution of transportation in China since reform and opening-up: patterns and principles[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 74(10): 1941- 1961.

[17] 李燕. 制约我国制造业高质量发展的关键问题、深层次原因与建议[J]. 发展研究, 2020, 27(8): 4-8. [LI Y. Key issues, underlying reasons restricting high- quality development of China's manufacturing industry and proposals[J]. Development Research, 2020, 27(8): 4-8.]

[18] 中华人民共和国交通运输部. 新中国成立70周年水运发展成就综述[DB/OL]. (2019-10-09)[2020-11- 11]. http: //www. mot. gov. cn/ jiaotongyaowen/ 201910/ t20191009_3280026.html. [Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China, Summary of the achievements of water transportation development in the 70th anniversary of the foundation of New China[DB/ OL]. (2019-10-09)[2020-11-11]. http://www.mot.gov. cn/jiaotongyaowen/201910/t20191009_3280026.html.]

[19] Federal Government Agency. Workforce Statistics[DB/ OL]. Washington: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, (2019- 12- 31) [2020- 11- 15]. https://www.bls.gov/iag/ tgs/iag31-33.htm.

[20] Institute for Water Resources. State to state and region to region, commodity tonnages, public domain database [DB/OL]. Washington: US Army Corps of Engineers. (2016- 12- 31) [2020- 11- 15]. https://usace.contentdm. oclc.org/digital/collection/p16021coll2/id/2598.

[21] 曾玮, 毛保华. 基于货物价值特性的国际集装箱班列竞争力分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19 (2): 37- 45. [ZENG W, MAO B H. A competitiveness analysis of international container transport based on value of goods[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2019, 19(2): 37-45.]