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    Decision-making Forum
    IOTBased Intelligent Transportation Systems and the Integrated Transport Information Service
    ZHANG Guo-wu
    2013, 13(2): 1-8. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (468KB) ( )  

    In view of the increasing need of developing urban transport systems, the 30th conference of “Traffic and Transportation Forum 7+1” addresses the issue of “IOTBased Intelligent Transportation Systems and the Integrated Transport Information Service”. It discusses the definition of the IOTbased intelligent transportation systems. The practical and new technologies of internet of things (IOT) are introduced into the intelligent transportation systems (ITS), and the diversified and advanced technologies of intelligent transportation and artificial intelligent (AI) are also applied in the field of traffic management, information service and vehicle control. The harmony of human, vehicle, road and environment can thus be achieved and urban integrated transport system can be formed with high efficiency, punctuality, comfort and low carbon emission. As per the integrated transport information service, it is suggested to be with the deep and personalized contents and the userfriendly and intelligent patterns.

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    Forum about Comprehensive Transportation System
    An Evaluation on Coordinated Relationship between Urban Rail Transit and Landuse under TOD Mode
    XIE Bing-lei, DING Chuan
    2013, 13(2): 9-13. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (359KB) ( )  

    This paper establishes an evaluation index system of coordinated relationship between urban rail transit and landuse under TOD mode. The evaluation results and rank are generated by the improved DEA model. Different input/output indexes are standardized through further analysis of different indexes’ slack variables and surplus variables. The influencing degrees of different index factors to the coordinated relationship are examined. The improved directions of DEA invalid decision making units (DMU) are also analyzed through the DEA projection theory, which provides an improved reference to the invalid DMU. A case of Allegheny country in U.S. is conducted to verify the evaluation method, and the results show that the evaluations mach well with the real situations. It is an effective way to evaluate the coordinated relationship between urban rail transit and landuse under TOD mode.

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    Airlines Base Location and Optimization Based on Interpretative Structural Modeling
    YU Jian, ZHANG Yan
    2013, 13(2): 14-20. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (699KB) ( )  

    Reasonable choice and layout of the airline base is an important prerequisite for the airline route network planning and the fleet planning. To improve the scientific nature of airlines base location and optimization, the paper systematically summarizes the factors influencing choice of airline base and uses interpretative structural modeling method to analyze the influencing factors. Then, the paper develops an interpretative structural model and a factors classified analysis diagram for airlines through indepth research on influencing factors. On the basis of the conclusions reached, the paper proposes decisiondiscrimination path for airlines base location and optimization. Finally, the instance verifies the above method to be scientific and effective and provides the foundations for decision making of airline base selection and optimization.

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    Location Model and Solution for Inland Ports Based on Green Conception
    LV Jing, CHANG Zheng
    2013, 13(2): 21-26. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (437KB) ( )  

    Green conception should be considered when constructing and operating nodes in logistics chain to establish modern green logistics system. This paper applies the green conception into the location problem of inland ports. Environmental factors such as noise, accidents, crowd and emissions are taken into consideration when formulating generalized cost function. Meanwhile, a bilevel programming location model that can satisfy the cost needs of both decision makers and shippers is established considering the leaderfollower relationship between two parties. The upper target is to choose an inland port location to minimize the total cost in the system, and the lower target is to allocate the transportation need of the shippers and to minimize the total cost for them. The genetic algorithm is adopted to solve the model. The empirical study shows the model is effective and the genetic algorithm can generate stable optimal solution.

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    Intelligent Transportation System and Information Technology
    Path Flow Based Cross Resolution Conversions for Simulation Model
    DU Peng, TIAN Zong-zhong, ZHOU Xue-song
    2013, 13(2): 27-33. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (933KB) ( )  

    Sub area traffic analysis is one of critically needed capabilities in practical traffic engineering applications. This paper aims to develop a fully automated network conversion and calibration tool to assist engineers easily extract a portion of a macroscopic planning network to construct a consistent subarea of interest, and then convert it into a detailed model suitable for microscopic simulation. A crossresolution simulation (CRS) method is adopted in this paper, which allows a rapid extraction of selected subareas from a regional planning network with OD matrix, and a lanebased expansion of the network topology, a consistent regeneration of subarea path flow and link volume. This paper integrates the abovementioned key modeling components into an opensource package and conducts a case study to demonstrate its effectiveness.

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    Short Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Combination of Predictive Models
    LI Ying-hong, LIU Le-min, WANG Yu-quan
    2013, 13(2): 34-41. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1980KB) ( )  

    In modern intelligent transportation systems, shortterm traffic flow forecasting is one of the key technologies to achieve a realtimetraffic control and traffic guidance. In order to improve the precision of the shortterm traffic flow forecasting, a shortterm traffic flow prediction method is proposed based on the combination forecasting model. The future projections are dynamically adjusted according to the current traffic flow data in the first part. Meanwhile, through the analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of historical traffic flow data, the historical curve similar to the current traffic flow characteristics is sought in another part to find the data that is matching to the predicted value. The information obtained by the both can be organically combinated in different ways to achieve the shortterm traffic flow forecasting. Taking the traffic flow of Xiamen Lotus junction crosssection as an example, is the paper demonstrates that the average absolute relative deviations of the methods are all less than 10%, which is able to meet the requirements of the traffic guidance system (GIS).

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    Iterative Learning Control for Freeway Traffic Distributed Parameter Systems
    CHI Rong-hu, LI Jian-ying, LIU Xiang-peng, SUI Shu-lin
    2013, 13(2): 42-47. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (657KB) ( )  

    Based on the freeway traffic distributed parameter system model, this paper presents the boundary control approach of the onramp distributed parameter system with consideration of the repeatability feature of traffic system. The approach with feedback PDtype control law improves the precision of the control system by learning useful knowledge in previous conductions. Moreover, it can effectively suppress the influence of the system measurement noises and disturbances. It also integrates the system space and time control information and adopts the freeway traffic distributed parameter system model description, so as to improve the control performance of the whole freeway section. The simulation results further confirm the effectiveness and appliciability of the proposed approachs by Matlab.

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    OLAM Based Multi dimensional Prediction of  Expressway Traffic Volume
    QIAN Chao, XU Hong-ke, XU Na, DAI Liang, CHENG Hong-liang
    2013, 13(2): 48-56. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1016KB) ( )  

    The online analytical mining (OLAM) is the organic combination of online analytical processing and data mining. On the basis of expressway tolling data, this paper proposes a method of multidimensional prediction of expressway traffic volume based on the OLAM. The method formulates the snowflake schema of multidimensional data. It also establishes the data warehouse of tolling data and gets multidimensional statistics of traffic volume. In the seasonal ARIMA predicting model, traffic outliers caused by holidays and severe weather are detected and the predicting model is modified. Finally, the prediction of traffic volume is realized by the improved predicting model. Compared with the general seasonal ARIMA model, the white noise variance and AIC value of the model is significantly reduced and the fitting degree of data is obviously improved. The experimental results show that the proposed method provides high prediction accuracy and the MAE and MAPE are calculated to be 50.43 and 1.59%, respectively. This not only assists the expressway administrations to analyze and predict the spacetime changing trend of traffic but provides theoretical foundation and decision support for the work of making policies.

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    Metro Based Park and Ride Reliability Analysis
    FAN Wen-bo
    2013, 13(2): 57-62. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (617KB) ( )  

    The reliability of the parkandride (P&R) system is one of the important elements that influence its attractiveness to the users. To measure the magnitude of metrobased P&R reliability, this paper proposes two concepts: transfer reliability and mode reliability. The uncertainty is considered in these concepts, which are caused by random travel times on roadways, random parking searching times within parking facilities, as well as random waiting times on metro stations. The stochastic user equilibrium analysis is adopted to simulate autotravelers’ behaviors (e.g., model choice, route choice, and parking choice) under the principle of travel costs minimization. The formulated model is resolved by the Monte Carlo method and the method of successive average. A numerical example is designed to demonstrate the significant effect of reliability/uncertainty on P&R mode share. In addition, P&R reliability analysis is conducted with respect to factors such as the metro train dispatching frequency, parking capacity and the level of total demand.

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    Overtaking Model Based on Different Limiting Speed
    BAI Wei, LI Cun-jun
    2013, 13(2): 63-68. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (566KB) ( )  

    The process of overtaking is a common phenomenon. The improper selection of overtaking time or other risk operations in driving will probably lead to traffic accidents. However, different speed limit of lanes in urban trunk road or in highway proposes higher requirements for vehicles in overtaking operations. Based on previous researches, this paper divides the whole overtaking process into three stages. It sets different speed limit of for didderent lanes with full consideration of following distance. An overtaking model for judgment and auxiliary of vehicles is developed and the goal is the safe driving and to overtake as many as vehicles during a given time. In the last section, the paper verifies the practicality of the model by an example.

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    Systems Engineering Theory and Methods
    Modeling Optimal Fare and Service Provisions for a Crowded Rail Transit Line
    QIN Fei-fei, JIA Hai-cehng
    2013, 13(2): 69-80. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (457KB) ( )  

    To relieve worsening traffic congestion and protect the deteriorating environment, many cities in China start to operate rail transit lines. However, the expected modal shift will only occur if the rail transit system offers great advantages over road transport modes. To this end, designing efficient operational arrangement has farreaching impacts not only on rail transit itself, but also on the overall urban transport system. Focusing on a crowded rail transit line, this paper aims to jointly optimize fare, frequency and number of carriages under advocated management objectives. Factors that enter into this joint optimization include negative externality arising from noise pollution, the adverse effect from invehicle crowding and positive externality from road congestion relief. To assess whether the rail transit line in a given corridor is priced efficiently and the service provision is appropriate, detailed numerical calculations are carried out for one representative Chinese city—Suzhou. A synthesis of theoretical and empirical analyses depicts: compared with profit optima, social welfare optima are characterized with lower fares, greater frequency, more number of carriages and higher ridership; the change from the current operational arrangement to social optimum would call for reducing fares, increasing frequency and adopting more carriages.

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    A Traffic Kinetic Model Considering Desired Speed
    LU Shou-feng, LIU Gai-hong, LIU Xi-min
    2013, 13(2): 81-89. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (929KB) ( )  

    In this paper, the desired speed variable is introduced into the ‘table of games’, and a new ‘table of games’ and corresponding traffic kinetic model are then formulated. The hybrid programming technique of VBA and MATLAB is used to develop the computational engine for the proposed model. The study focuses on the effect of desired speed on the speeddensity curve. With one desired speed, the relationship between average speed and density is investigated under different road conditions and desired speeds. With multiple desired speeds, an investigation is carried out on the effect of the coefficient of variation on average speed, and the effect of percentage of low desired speed vehicles on average speed. An important factor influencing average speed is the variation of the desired speed. When density is low, traffic flow is in an individual flow pattern, and the average speed of the traffic flow is determined by the variation of the desired speed. When density is high, traffic flow is in a collective flow pattern, and the average speed is determined by density.

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    A Crew Scheduling with Chinese Meal Break Rules
    CHEN Shi-jun, SHEN Yin-dong, SU Xuan, CHEN He-ming
    2013, 13(2): 90-95. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (498KB) ( )  

    An efficient crew scheduling can significantly reduce the operational cost for transit enterprises. However, the crew scheduling problem, known to be NPhard, is complicated by the fact that there are many restrictions on the shift generation. Moreover, there are some special requirements in China, for example, meal break is normally required to be taken during the conventional time ranges for lunch or dinner, which is called a Chinese meal break rule to distinguish from the western ones. It also makes the existing crew scheduling approaches encountering difficulties. On the basis of the “generate and select” approach to solve the crew scheduling problem, this paper proposes an approach to handling the Chinese meal break rule in the phase of “generate”. Taking advantages of the characteristics of Chinese meal break rule and problem domain knowledge, a heuristicbased approach is proposed to select some promising relief opportunities (ROs). A shift generation approach is then devised to generate a large set of potential shifts that satisfy the Chinese meal break rule. Experimental results from 12 groups of realworld problem instances demonstrate the success of the proposed approach, which can greatly reduce the number of potential shifts generated. Therefore, it is suggested that the proposed approach be used to solve the large scale crew scheduling problems with Chinese meal break rule.

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    Effect of Road Traffic Congestion on  Aviation Passenger’s Flight Choice
    CHEN Di, ZHANG Ning, LIU Jian
    2013, 13(2): 96-102. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (588KB) ( )  

    This paper investigates hovo passengers choose flight times in view of ground traffic congestion. The departure time choice model of aviation passengers is developed by extending Vickrey’s bottleneck model. The conditions are determined for the existence of the user equilibrium in the model. Then, the range of the difference between the airfares is established while the number of aviation passengers choosing the same flight time remains unchanged at the user equilibrium. Moreover, the tendency of the total queuing time and the incremental airfare revenue is derived along with the difference between the airfares. The results show that the number of aviation passengers is jointly determined by the flight time and the bottleneck capacity for different schedules. Under the given passenger volume, the total queuing time (traffic congestion) can be reduced or the incremental airfare revenue can be increased by properly adjusting the airfares’ difference. Two numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the principle and its application.

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    Complex Network Evolution of Different Scale Shipping Based on Improved BA Model
    WANG Jie, LI Xue, WANG Xiao-bin
    2013, 13(2): 103-110. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (532KB) ( )  

    Based on complex network theory, this paper analyzes the shipping network topological structure with characteristics of scalefree network. The BA scalefree network model is used to establish the evolutionary shipping network. Connection probability is the important basis of BA model’s node priority connection. The paper focuses on port nodes analysis in shipping network and examines the node attraction degree by weighted quantification and MATLAB programming, which considers the influence factors of connection between the nodes to service connection probability formula. The BA model is thus improved. Related data about 15 and 25 global major container ports is respectively selected and modeled by the improved BA model to describe the shipping network evolution. The results prove that shipping complex network has the same characteristics as scalefree network and its characteristics are not necessarily linked with the number of nodes. Based on the evolution model algorithm, the features of large scale shipping evolving network are summarized as: shorter average path, stronger clustering, greater differences in node degree. The actual network composed of global liner routes is used for further verification and the similar structural characteristics are obtained.

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    Optimizing Model and Simulation for Mixed Traffic Flow Guidance Measures of Urban CCD
    CHENG Tie-xin, CUI Miao, CHEN Jing-zhu
    2013, 13(2): 111-117. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (592KB) ( )  

    As the city’s economic and cultural center, the urban central commercial districts (CCDs) will undergo dramatic changes, which will also bring heavy traffic jams to the city. In this paper, the mixed traffic flow of CCDs is analyzed, and the traffic flow guidance optimizing model is formulated. According to the route selection probability based on the overall travel cost function, the traffic flow is allocated to the road network of the CCDs by dynamic assignment model, and the heavytraffic roads are identified. Then, the mixed traffic flow guidance measures are presented, and the proposed model is applied to select the optimal measure. Finally, with the VISSIM simulation software, the model is applied to the mixed traffic flow of the Tianjin Binjiangdao CCD, which proves the effectiveness of the satisfied guidance measure.

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    DCCEA Model for Dynamic Slot Reassignment
    WANG Zhan, WU Shu
    2013, 13(2): 118-123. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (432KB) ( )  

    Collaborative slot reassignment is a collaborative problem between selfserving and rational individuals. It is based on profits and with high dynamic and indeterminacy. The assignment achieves holistic aim based on the maximum of individual profits. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the distributed cooperative coevolutionary algorithm (DCCEA) and then applies it into the collaborative slots reassignment. Then a DCCEA model is formulated for dynamic slot reassignment in CDMGDP. The simulation experiment indicates that the model maximizes total exchange avail, boosts up voluntary exterior exchange between airline companies and also improves slot reassignment efficiency. The model effectively solves distributed dynamic slot reassignment problem in Ground Delay Program under Collabrative Decision Making (CDMGDP).

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    Modeling ParkandRide System Equilibrium Problems in a Linear Monocentric City
    NI Shuang, ZHAO Hui, SUN Hui-jun
    2013, 13(2): 124-129. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (395KB) ( )  

    Aiming at increasingly serious urban road traffic congestion problem, parkandride service system has been introduced in many cities as an effective traffic mode to alleviate the urban central district traffic pressure. This paper investigates the P&R system equilibrium issues in a congested highway corridor. In the integrated transportation system, private cars and buses share the same roadway along the corridor. Travelers have three travel modes, private car, bus and autobus. On the basis of an indepth analysis of the demand and supply sides of the three travel modes in the integrated transportation system, the mode choice equilibrium of travelers along the continuum corridor is presented and formulated as an equivalent variational inequality problem. The solution properties of the continuum equilibrium formulation are analytically explored, and a modal is proposed on basis of public regulatory. In the public regulatory model, the location of P & R facility is simultaneously optimized. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed models.

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    Safety Evaluation Method of Freeway Pavement Condition
    HU Si-tao, XIANG Qiao-jun
    2013, 13(2): 130-135. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (601KB) ( )  

    This paper quantitatively measures the relationships between freeway pavement condition and traffic safety. The pavement condition index (PCI) and pavement skid resistant index (SRI) are selected as the characterized indicators of road surface condition, while the speed standard deviation coefficient (Cv) is taken as the characterized indicators of traffic flow to reflect the state of traffic safety. First, considering the impact of traffic, it simulates change of the coefficient of variations speed standard deviations of traffic flow along the actual sections. Meanwhile, combined with the existing road testing data, it develops the model related to highway pavement condition and traffic safety. Then, it uses the cumulative frequency curve to divide highway traffic safety grade. Finally, the Shanghai-Nanjing freeway is taken as the case study. The results show that it is feasible to analyze the relationships between pavement condition and traffic safety based on traffic flow characteristics. The models on PCI, SRIand Cv can accurately determine the safety grade of highway pavement condition.

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    Safety Attribute Recognition Model on Traffic Accident Site Based on Coefficient of Entropy
    ZHANG Wen-hui, LI De-cai, LUO Wen-wen
    2013, 13(2): 136-140. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (363KB) ( )  

    To ensure the safety of traffic accident site and avoid the successive accident happening, the evaluation index system is established based on traffic and management features. The criterion layer includes human factor vehicle factor, road and environment factor, management factor and the decision layer consists of fifteen indexes. Based on the entropy value theory and attribute recognition, the paper also develops an attribute recognition model based on coefficient of entropy. The weight of evaluation index and attribute measurement are calculated by the entropy coefficient theory. To verify the applicability of the model, the collected characteristic data from accident sites is put into the model to evaluate safety degree of the objective site. The results show that the model can not only be used to evaluate the safety condition of the accident site disposing scheme, but to compare the effectiveness of different disposing schemes.

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    DecisionMaking Method of Railway Emergency Rescue Based on Hierarchical Agent
    ZHANG Zhen-hai, WANG Xiao-ming, ZHANG Yan-peng, WANG Hai-yong
    2013, 13(2): 141-146. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (480KB) ( )  

    The decisionmaking of railway emergent rescue is one of the important issues in the field of railway transportation safety management. In view of the current condition of railway emergent rescue, the paper analyzes the feasibility of the multiagent technology which is applied to the field of railway emergent decisionmaking. Based on the hierarchical agent, it also investigates a new architecture of command and control for railway emergent rescue and analyzes its function of different layers. According to the characteristics of each agent layer, the model of decisionmaking is designed. It realizes the decision mechanism of managing agent by fuzzy evaluation and describes the computing process of the decisionmaking algorithm. Finally, the validation of the model has been conducted by a specific case of train emergent rescue. The results show that the proposed method is feasible for decisionmaking of railway emergent rescue. 

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    Impact of ETC System on Service Level of Toll Plazas
    ZHANG Chen-chen,WANG Yan-hui,JIA Li-min
    2013, 13(2): 147-152. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (701KB) ( )  

    The widelyused ETC technology has significantly improved the artificial charge efficiency and alleviated the traffic congestion in the toll plazas. This paper investigates the optimal allocation scheme of the ETC system. According to the toll station design specifications and field research results, the components of toll plazas system are presented. With the vehicle behavior characteristics of every component and the classification features between vehicle and charging channel, a traffic flow cellular automaton model which is proposed, which is suitable for the ETC toll plazas. Considering the traffic congestion characteristics of ETC toll plazas, the concept of service level and related computational methods are developed. A simulation scheme is designed, which includes the ETC usage, ETC lane number and traffic flow parameters. Based on that, a closed 4 Lane Toll plaza is analyzed as an example. An ETC Lane configuration is proposed when the ETC utilization rates are respectively 30%, 60% and 90%. The approach provides a theoretical basis for the rational use of the ETC system for the management of the toll station.

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    Influencing Factors of City Bus Service Quality Based on SERVPERF Model
    MA Fei,SUN Qi-peng,WANG Lian,CHEN Yu-ting
    2013, 13(2): 153-157. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (377KB) ( )  

    To identify the influencing factors and action mechanism of urban bus service level systematically,this paper develops the five dimensions perception scale model for the city bus passenger from tangibles based on the SERVPERF analysis.The five perception scale include:tangibles,assurance,reliability,responsiveness and empathy.By analyzing the data from passenger questionnaires,it is found that the reliability dimension is the highest to the overall quality of service that bus passengers perceive,and the responsive dimension is the lowest.Furthermore,the tangible dimension is strongly correlated with the assurance and reliability dimension.The results show that it is necessary to strengthen the reliability management of city bus service and to raise the awareness of service of related staff. Meanwhile,it is also useful to improve the bus image and encourage the humane measures,which will exert positive impact on promoting service perception of passengers.

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    Improved Dial’s Algorithm for LogitBased Stochastic Traffic Assignment Model
    YANG Yong, YAN Yu-song, HU Zuo-an, MA Yi
    2013, 13(2): 158-163. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (479KB) ( )  

    This paper analyzes the multipath Logit assignment model and the classical Dial’s algorithm. To overcome the drawback in existing model and algorithm, an improved algorithm is presented. The efficient path condition is modified based on a quantitative correction coefficient on individual path. The improved algorithm retains the main advantages of original algorithm, in which the path enumeration is not required and a similar computing efficiency with the original algorithm is guaranteed. Meanwhile, the preference to potential valid road links with short distance among urban traffic travellers is satisfied. A numerical example based on a traffic road network is used to illustrate the application of proposed algorithm and two algorithms are then compared. Results show that the improved algorithm is able to eliminate the abnormal behavior of the original algorithm with more feasible and reasonable traffic flow assignment results. It is evident that the proposed algorithm is more effective than the original one.

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    Slot Allocation Optimization Model for Multinode Container SeaRail Intermodal Transport
    LIU Di, YANG Hua-long, ZHANG Yan
    2013, 13(2): 164-171. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (426KB) ( )  

    Slot allocation optimization under uncertain demands has significant impacts on the efficiency and benefit for a multimodal transport operator (MTO). Based on revenue management theory and features of container searail intermodal transport, this paper establishes a twostage slot allocation optimization model on the multinode container searail intermodal line, which takes into account the different demands of contract, general and urgent customers. The first stage is proposed by considering slot allocation for contract customers in contract market, and the second stage is proposed by considering slot allocation for general and urgent customers in free market. Because of the demand relative certainty in the first stage and the demand uncertainty characteristic in the second stage, the method of DLP and SLP are used to transform and solve the models respectively. The results show that the models and algorithms are feasible and effective.

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    Optimization Model of Mixed Storage in Railway Container Terminal Yard
    WANG Li, ZHU Xiao-ning, YAN Wei, XIE Zheng-yu, LI Qiu-bo
    2013, 13(2): 172-178. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (483KB) ( )  

    Railway container yard is a buffer area of loading and unloading freights between train and truck. The storage efficiency thus significantly impacts the performance ability and productivity of railway container terminal. This paper examines the optimization problem of mixed storage in railway container terminal and proposes a twostage optimization model considering the description of mixed storage operation in container yard. In the first stage, output and input container volumes are balanced among various blocks. To reduce the container overlapping amounts, the relative optimal slots are allocated in the second stage. The algorithm to solve the problem is presented based on heuristic algorithm. The field data from certain railway container terminal is used to test the proposed method and the result shows its effectiveness and efficiencies.

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    Discrete Choice Analysis of Graphical Route Information Panel’s Effect on Driver Route Choice Decision
    CHEN Si, GAN Hong-cheng, YANG Zhen-zhen
    2013, 13(2): 179-184. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (732KB) ( )  

    This paper examines the effect of Graphical Route Information Panel (GRIP) on drivers’ route choice behavior. A stated preference survey is conducted to collect data on drivers’ choice between two alternative routes with six hypothetical the GRIP messages. A binary discrete choice model is developed to quantify choices between two alternative routes. The GRIP messages are measured by color and the distance between the congested site and the detour point. The GRIP in this survey is a realworld one upstream of westbound Yan’an Elevated Road in Shanghai, China. The SP survey contains six travel scenarios, and each of which includes two alternative routes between the origin and destination. The collected data in the SP survey are used to estimate the binary Logit model by SPSS. Main findings are obtained as that GRIP information has significant impacts on drivers’ behavior; different GRIP messages have different effects on route choice decision, especially when red color exists. The socialeconomical attributes such as education background, annual travelled distance are also elements that influence route choice.

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    Impacts of Traffic Management Measures on rban Network Microscopic Fundamental Diagram
    XU Fei-fei, HE Zhao-cheng, SHA Zhi-ren
    2013, 13(2): 185-190. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (944KB) ( )  

    The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) exists in large urban networks where traffic conditions are homogenous. It can be used to estimate the level of service on road networks, conduct perimeter control, and model macroscopic traffic. Different network conditions exert different effects on the shape of the MFD. The factors that influence the MFD shape should be identified, which is the premise of understanding the urban traffic laws based on the MFD. The paper takes Haizhu District network of Guangzhou, China for the analysis using Paramics. A microscopic simulation is conducted to derive MFDs under different management conditions. Results indicate that the MFD shape is a property not only of the network itself but also of the applied traffic control measures, which is able to reflect the police effects. Meanwhile, the dramatic changes in traffic demand, the setting of bus lane, and the lane forbidden all have certain impacts on the MFD shape. Additionally, the critical sections should be given priority when developing the traffic control strategy.

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    Cases Analysis
    Traffic State Forecasting of Typical Roads in Beijing
    WANG Ming-zhe, GUO Min
    2013, 13(2): 191-198. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1162KB) ( )  

    The comprehensive analysis of traffic states are effective ways to eliminate some traffic problems and enhance the supervising ability of the traffic management departments, which includes realtime monitoring, evaluation and prediction the states of the entire city. With analyzing the traffic flow characteristic on several typical roads in Beijing and summarizing the existing traffic prediction models, this paper proposes a combination forecasting model. It is mainly based on the nonparametric regression model. The combination of Fourier’s history estimated model, nonparametric autoregressive model and nonparametric neighborhood regression model are used to predict the traffic state of typical Roads. Considering the reality of the traffic flow information collection system of Beijing and the needs of predicting information released by graphical way in the future, the paper also presents the heterogeneous data fusion methods and road traffic code model.

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    Flight Delay Distribution Law at Capital Airport of Beijing
    YANG Wen-dong, HUANG Li-shi, LIU Wan-ming
    2013, 13(2): 199-204. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (576KB) ( )  

    Flight delay often occurs in air transportation in recent years, which severely affects benefits of airports, airlines and passengers. Flight delay cannot be entirety eliminated because of the effects of weather, air control and human factors. However, we are able to analyze the internal reasons and underlying laws to reduce till avoid unnecessary loss. Based on statistics during a week at the Capital Airport in Beijing, China, the paper analyzes the delay length, delay rate, delay fluctuation of different airlines and different durations. It develops a kernel density evaluation function of a day delay duration distribution, and then proves that the delay duration distribution looked on as normal distribution is not accurate enough. The method to fit optimal bandwidth is presented. The result shows that the method meets the accuracy request to analyze flight delay, which provides reference for analyzing operation and recovery for abnormal flights.

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