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25 December 2014, Volume 14 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Fundamental Analyses for Constructing Road-rail Intermodal Freight Transport System 2014, 14(6): 1-7.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2119KB) ( )   Intermodal transport generally concerns a few of fundamental elements such as freight’s characteristics, shippers’and forwarder evaluations. The freight’s characteristics decide the relevant potential demands and the possibility to combine different transport means into intermodalism. The evaluations of shippers and forwarders always have an important impact on the selections of transport. This paper comparatively analyzes the critical elements of freight’s characteristics, shippers’and forwarder evaluations. Moreover, the possibilities and relevant issues to form the road- rail intermodal freight transport are discussed. And, some suggestions are proposed to improve the railway freight services. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Efficiency Volatility and Influence Factors of Chinese Modern Transportation Industry Based on the Model of Cross-efficiency DEA and VAR WU Ji-gui, YE A-zhong 2014, 14(6): 8-14.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1512KB) ( )   In order to explore the efficiency volatility and influence factors of Chinese modern transportation industry based on the data from 1978 to 2012, the Cross-efficiency DEA and VAR model are adopted. The result proves that, one- way Granger casualty relationship exists, respectively, between the input variables and output variables; the efficiency volatility of modern transportation can be divided into three stages: efficiency improvement, high efficiency operation and efficiency loss, which shows the trend of “rising first, then falling”in general; the response of transportation industry to the shock of per capita consumption, government spending, energy consumption and fixed- asset investment are positive, while to the shock of labor factor is negative, what’s more,“lag effect”exists in the response of transportation industry to the shock of information element. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption for Integrated Transportation System Based on Complete Decomposition Model 2014, 14(6): 15-20.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1462KB) ( )   The contradiction between transportation and energy increased with the development of industrialization and urbanization. Current research indicates that energy consumption of transportation are related with traffic volume and energy consumption intensity, however, neglecting impaction of system structure of integrated transportation. This paper takes the integrated transportation system as a research object, and the complete decomposition model is built up. The influencing factors of energy consumption is divided into three parts, traffic volume, energy consumption intensity and system structure of integrated transportation. A calculation example is gave based on the statistical data of 1995–2011, to discuss thequalitative and quantitative relationship between energy consumption of transportation and its influencing factors, and find out the main promotion factor that effects energy consumption increasing. By analyzing the data，we can draw the conclusion that the energy consumption of transportation increase significantly with the increase of traffic volume. But it is necessary to point out that the effects of transport structure become more and more outstanding. Therefore, when government constructing integrated transportation system, should analysis comparative advantage energy consumption of each transportation ways and make the whole developing planning to realize the coordination of transport modes. In particular, should greatly develop transportation of railway and waterway which are low energy consumption and little effect on environment. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Review of Latent Variable on Urban Travel Behavior CHEN Jian, GAN Mi 2014, 14(6): 21-29.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1379KB) ( )   Latent variable methed is an effective way to improve the prediction accuracy of travel behavior. And a new perspective to travel behavior research is provided by latent variable. In order to solve the problems about lack of cognition and application of latent variable on travel behavior, the characteristics of existing travel behavior modeling method are analyzed based on social psychology. And the necessity of research on the latent variable is proposed. The connotation, application field and model building of latent variable on urban travel behavior are systemized. Three core problems are defined, which are identification, validation and calculation. It is reviewed and studied the opportunity, difficulty and challenge of travel behavior integrated model covering the latent variables. The relevance between measure method of latent variable and SP/RP survey is revealed. And then the model test standard is summarized. Finally the development trend of latent variable research and the direction of our efforts are proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Parking Pricing for Two Types of Parking Facilities under Three Operation Regimes FANWen-bo, LV Xue, XIANG Hong-yan 2014, 14(6): 30-35.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1587KB) ( )   To explore the parking pricing problem for two types of parking facilities (i.e., the public parking lots and the park-and-ride facilities) under three operation regimes (i.e., the monopoly, the oligopoly, and the social optimum), a bi-level programming model is formulated to describe the interactions between the operators and the travelers. The upper level is operators’decision model optimizing the level of parking charge; and the lower level is a network equilibrium model, which concerns the choices of travelers, such as mode choice, parking facility choice, and route choice. A sensitivity analysis based algorithm is adopted to solve the proposed model. The numerical results show that the monopoly solution leads to the highest profit, the lowest social welfare and traffic demand; the social optimum solution results in the lowest profit, the highest social welfare and traffic demand; and the outcomes of the oligopoly solution sit in between. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Regional Passenger Hub Layout Optimization Based on Hierarchical Location Model LI Ting-ting，SONG Rui，HE Shi-wei，LI Hao-dong 2014, 14(6): 36-41.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1532KB) ( )   To improve the efficiency of the passenger transport system, a model for regional passenger hub layout is proposed. The relationship between different passenger hub and passenger transport demand is analyzed. A hierarchical model with capacity constraints is built and solved by CPLEX. Numerical example is given to validate the model. The results show that hierarchical model is superior to non hierarchical median model for accessibility. In addition, the minimum and maximum capacity constraints lead to accessibility decline yet make the model more realistic. Hub planning department should expand the capacity of hubs and adjust hub layout in the face of the passenger transport demand increase. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Complexity and Delayed Feedback Control of Airlines’Dynamic Price Competition HU Rong，JIANG Chao，LI Tian-rui 2014, 14(6): 42-49.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1933KB) ( )   To investigate the complexity and validity of the delayed feedback control method in airlines’ dynamic price competition, the model of airlines’dynamic price competition is established by using the theory of bounded rationality and nonlinear dynamics, and complexity of airlines dynamic behavior is analyzed. The validity and differences of two kinds of delayed feedback control methods which aimed at system variables and system parameters are also discussed. The simulation results show that the speed of airlines’price adjustment has significant effects on the complexity of model. The dynamic price competition model enables to maintain stable with controlled by two kinds of delayed feedback control method if appropriate control factors are chosen. Besides, two kinds of delayed feedback control method have significant difference in the value range of control factors and the convergence speed, and the value of control factors has a regular influence on the system’s convergence speed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-resolution Information Exchange Method in Cooperation Vehicle-Infrastructure System LI Si-hui, CAI Bai-ge1, SHANGGUANWei, GUO Ke-yan, LIU Yu 2014, 14(6): 50-57.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1976KB) ( )   Research of cooperation vehicle- infrastructure system (CVIS) is a great significance for the transportation system development. In order to study the CVIS simulation’s key technology and build up the simulation platform, multi- resolution information interaction method is presented to solve the network congestion problems based on HLA when simulation, a high-resolution information model of vehicle running state, a middle- resolution information model of fleet status and a-low resolution model of traffic flow are established. The simulation of multi- resolution information interaction is achieved by aggregation and disaggregation method, while the time of aggregation and disaggregation determined by queue length of buffer which transmitted from fuzzy prediction. The analysis shows that the method can effectively reduce the system properties throughput by the results of the simulation manager federate, so as to better control network congestion and decline the delay of system properties, it can also improve the CVIS simulation efficiency. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Air Traffic Flow Parameter Model and Simulation for Airport Terminal Area ZHANG Hong-hai，XU Yan，ZHANG Zhe-ming，YANG Lei 2014, 14(6): 58-64.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2358KB) ( )   This paper studies the time- space characteristic and its evolution rule of the air traffic flow in terminal area, which aims at providing scientific basis to alleviate air traffic congestion and optimize control strategies. The method combines with mathematical induction and simulation analysis. First, based on cell transmission model, the model of landing approach air traffic flow in terminal area is established, and further to elucidate the interrelationship and influential factors of the three basic parameters as velocity, density and traffic flux. Then, the macroscopic emergence behavior of traffic flow in terminal area is simulated on the Netlogo platform, and the correlativity of basic traffic flow parameters is deduced with a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the model is verified by ATC radar data. The results demonstrate that this model is correspond to reality and is feasible for traffic states identification. Also, there are obvious relationships to the three basic parameters of air traffic flow in terminal area, and such relationship evolves distinctly with the flight procedure, control separation, and control strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Location of GPRS/ZigBee Traffic Guidance Information Releasing Device BI Jun, CHANG Can, LIU Dong-fusheng, SHAO Sai, GUANWei 2014, 14(6): 65-71.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1319KB) ( )   The paper presents a new traffic guidance device, which is GPRS/ZigBee traffic guidance information releasing device. The traffic guidance information is sent to GPRS/ZigBee traffic guidance information releasing device from the traffic information management center by GPRS wireless network. Then the GPRS/ZigBee traffic guidance information releasing device sends the traffic guidance information to the information receiving device by the ZigBee wireless network. The information receiving device then broadcast the traffic guidance information with the text to speech (TTS) technology. In order to make the GPRS/ZigBee traffic guidance information releasing device has the maximum effect, a layout scheme of the device is provided. Firstly, the total-width model is presented. Secondly, the Logit-SUE model is established. In order to acquire the link flow and public roads coefficient of each road, the Logit-SUE model is solved with MSAAlgorithm. At last, we figure out the total effect and determine the location decision. A simulation experiment is conducted with the road network which included 20 nodes and 62 roads. The results of the experiment confirm the application of the model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Mining Method of Travel Characteristics Based on Spatio-temporal Trajectory Data ZHANG Jian-qin，QIU Pei-yuan,DU Ming-yi 2014, 14(6): 72-78.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2039KB) ( )   With the development and application of mobile positioning technology, more and more private cars and taxis are equipped with GPS, and produce a great deal spatio-temporal trajectory data. In order to mine the characteristics of drivers based on these data. This paper studies spatio-temporal trajectory data of taxi in Beijing city from the perspective of time geography，the driver residence mining method and rule analyzing method of work and rest is put forward and is realized, and the experimental results are analyzed. Sample experimental results show the space distribution of the driver residence, and show that the number of driver routines of the total similarity between 0.6–1, accounted for 73.75% of the total. The information mined through the method can provide decision support for the management of the taxi, and the method application for private car has important significance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Online Prediction of Urban Traffic Flow Based on Macro-micro Model HE Zhao-cheng, ZHU Yi-ting, HUANG Peng-yuan 2014, 14(6): 79-85.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2104KB) ( )   The reliable and real- time traffic flow prediction is the foundation of traffic management and control in urban traffic. It is difficult for a modified cell transmission model (MCTM) to obtain micro information of the approach section, and also for Paramics simulation model to estimate accurate OD matrix of the whole road network. So a macro-micro model is proposed to keep online traffic flow prediction away from those defects. In unit interval of the prediction, it uses MCTM to predict effective density of basic cells and initial density of approach cells firstly. Then it establishes an interface to calculate simulation vehicle number and uses Paramics for a micro simulation of approach section. The simulation data is used to predict queue length of the intersection and effective density of approach cells to replace the initial ones to be initial input in next interval. During the simulation, a turning traffic demand prediction model based on constrained Kalman filter is established to get the real- time turning traffic demand in unit interval. The simulation analysis indicates the macro-micro model meets the requirements of online traffic flow prediction in urban traffic. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Forecasting of Traffic Flow Based on Optimized Hourglass Model in Emergencies WEN Jiang-hui，JIANG Ze-wu，XU Jia-heng，ZHANG Sui-yuan，MAO Shu-hua 2014, 14(6): 86-91.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1584KB) ( )   From the analysis of the evolving of traffic flow when traffic congestion emerges caused by accident, analogies of traffic flow with the movement of particulate matter in hourglass model and various vehicles’lane changing pattern in emergency situation, an optimized hourglass model is propose. Based on cellular automata method, we simulate the queuing lengths of vehicles in different time on MATLAB and compare them with the practical data .We find that the average relative error of the model is 6.509 7%, verifying the reliability of the model. Finally, according to the model, we predict the time required for the specific queuing length on various lanes and traffic volumes. Thusly, we can study the impacts of time on traffic capacity and provide a theoretical basis for transportation administration. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Managing Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation Projects under Budget Uncertainties FAN (David)Wei,WANG Feng 2014, 14(6): 92-100.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1426KB) ( )   A well- developed and maintained pavement management system (PMS) empowers a decision maker to select the best maintenance program, i.e., which maintenance treatment to use and where and when to apply it, so that a maximum utilization of available resources can be achieved. This paper addresses a decision making problem for managing pavement maintenance and rehabilitation projects under budget uncertainty (MPMRPBU). A stochastic linear programming model is formulated and solved for the MPMRPBU so that a set of candidate projects can be optimally selected from the highway network over a planning horizon. Numerical results are discussed based upon a pilot case study. Different optimization solutions based on deterministic optimization and stochastic programming approaches are discussed and compared. The effect of the budget constraint on the optimized solutions is investigated. The computational result indicates a high quality MPMRPBU solution using stochastic programming approach, suggesting that there is a potential that the algorithm can be used for real world applications. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Path-based Rapid Convergent Newton Algorithm in Traffic Assignment CHENG Lin, SUN Chao, SHAO Juan 2014, 14(6): 101-106.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1677KB) ( )   This paper proposes a method for solving the deterministic user equilibrium assignment problem. The UE model based on route cost function is established. Base on this model, path-based rapid convergent Newton (RCN) algorithm is proposed. Each time the traffic flow is diverted for only one OD, and then the flow is updated. We propose the principle of faster speeds approaching equilibrium. Then we simplify the Hessian matrix which can deduce the iterative direction. And through the second-order Taylor expansion, the optimal step size is found. The algorithm is applied to the real traffic assignment problem. Three types (small, medium, large) of traffic networks are tested respectively. Compared to the traditional gradient projection algorithm, path-based rapid convergent Newton algorithm has faster convergence and higher precision, especially in the early iterations. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multimodal Urban Traffic Assignment Analysis 2014, 14(6): 107-112.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1601KB) ( )   The improvement of urban integrated transportation system provides more choices in travel mode. The paper proposes a Nested Logit model including joint mode and route choice to study the method of multimodal traffic assignment under the multimodal conditions, based on the full consideration of structural features of multimodal traffic network. First, a NL model of joint mode and route choice is constructed based on the maximum random utility theory, and the coefficients are calibrated based on SP questionnaire survey data. Second, road traffic impedance functions under mixed traffic conditions are estimated with the real-collected traffic data. Finally, traffic assignment is carried out based on a specified multimode network, and the spatiotemporal distribution of traffic are analyzed. The results show that the proposed method of multimodal traffic assignment in this study can effectively describe the complex traveler’s choice behaviors including traffic mode choice and route choice under the multimodal conditions, and analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of traffic on multimode transportation network. It’s significant for improving the integrated transportation system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Defraud Behavior of Network Toll Highway Based on Evolutionary Game Model ZHANG Gong-liang，ZHANG Cheng-ke，ZHU Ying 2014, 14(6): 113-119.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1514KB) ( )   Expressway networking toll has been largely achieved, and as a result of the increase of mileage charges, the temptation of the higher toll saving increases the cheating motivation of drivers. This paper, aiming to reduce economic losses of highway enterprises caused by escaped toll, using the method of evolutionary game theory, considering inspectors, drivers and toll collectors as two party of game, explores the issue that supervision of inspectors and toll collectors choosing complicity with drivers to escape charges. The following are the replication dynamic equations of inspector rejecting monitor, and toll collectors choosing complicity with drivers to escape charges respectively, which analyzes the escape charges of driver under the influence of factors such as the opportunity cost of both evolution and evolutionary stable strategies. The results show that enhancing supervision of inspectors and penalties is an effective way to improve the phenomenon of complicity escaped toll between toll collectors and drivers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision-making Method for Unconventional Railway Emergency Rescue ZUO Jing, SHUAI Bin 2014, 14(6): 120-125.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1575KB) ( )   The inferential method of Bayesian network is applied to the railway emergency decisionmaking to provide a practical, intelligent and scientific decision-making method for the railway emergency rescue. On the basis of the extraction and reduction of decision attributes, the assessment method based on cloud model is used to qualitatively divide the decision attributes of the case, which reduces the deviation of the division. The Bayesian network model of the emergency decision-making for railway emergency is established, and a specific measure of comprehensive decision-making is proposed. The example shows the decision-making process of comprehensive probability of unconventional railway emergency. The analysis of the case shows the measure can meet the need of railway emergency decision- making, which is practical, precise and valid even when the information is incomplete. The proposed measure can provide new ideas to intelligentize railway emergency decision-making support system while the knowledge of field is incomplete and the experience is dominating. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Freight Train Service Design Problem with Operation Cost and Linearization Constraints for Carflow’s Tree-shaped Classification Strategy WANG Zhi-mei, LIN Bo-liang 2014, 14(6): 126-132.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1499KB) ( )   With regard to formulating freight train operation plan, foreign countries generally take minimizing the integrated cost of traffic flow and train set as the objective. However, our country mainly focuses on minimizing the total train service accumulation cost and classification cost, rarely considering the operation cost of train set, which results that the theoretical operation cost is less than normal level and the operation plan may not be the best. Furthermore, the existing train formation plan models in our country recursively represent the traffic flow’s tree-shaped classification strategy, which is not conducive to deal with infeasible flow. In view of this situation, this paper modifies the existing models as follows: train set operation cost is added to the overall objective function and new decision variables are introduced into constraints to realize linearly representing the traffic flow’s tree-shaped classification strategy. Then, the parallel tabu search algorithm is designed to solve the proposed model. The results demonstrate that the fixed cost in unit train operation cost has a significant impact on train operation plan. The higher the fixed cost is, the smaller the total number of opening train is, the longer the average transport distance is, but the greater the total classification traffic flow is. Linearized classification strategy makes classification route of traffic flow much more intuitive so that it is easier to adjust the operation plan of infeasible traffic flow. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Human Reliability Analysis on High-speed Train Dispatcher Based on THERP and Markov Theories XU Pei-juan，PENG Qi-yuan, WEN Chao, GUO Jing-wei, ZHAN Shu-guang 2014, 14(6): 133-140.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1639KB) ( )   In the dispatching system of high-speed railway, the dispatching terminal equipment is used by dispatchers who manage the running high- speed trains and related production activities, so reliability of dispatchers is directly related to the safety of high-speed trains. In this paper, THERP theory is introduced from nuclear plant industry to calculate the failure rate and the corresponding confidence intervals of dispatchers under static conditions, combining with the characteristics of their job content. According to the Markov chain theory, then the probability state transferring equations is established to study law of the dispatcher reliability under a certain influencing factor, by Laplace transform. Finally, the task about setting train speed limitation done by the dispatcher is taken for an example to analyze the static and dynamic reliability, when the person is under the influence of different level of pressure. The results show that human error rate about setting train speed limitation is lowest with 0.010 4 under medium pressure state. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Defining and Calculating on Reasonable Yield of Profitable Highway ZHAO Jing，WANG Jian-wei，GAN Jia-hua，MAO Xin-hua 2014, 14(6): 141-146.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1441KB) ( )   The reasonable yield of profitable highway is critical to develop charges scientifically and promote social justice. From the perspective of the realistic cases, random variables and the government management, the paper defines the reasonable yield as an interval. On the base of the concept of cost and price control theory, the paper deduces that the minimum value of the interval is benchmark rate of return and the maximum value is the rate which corresponding to a lower service level. The paper analyzes and demonstrates the model of combining CAPM and WACC for calculating benchmark rate is reasonable for the benefits include the time value of money and the highest potential income when the profit is 0. The parameter calibration model for market expected rate of the return is demonstrated basing on the input-output table. In the calculation case, the reasonable yield is 7.47%–10.1%, as a basis of formulation and adjustment of charges. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Traffic State Classification Based on Parameter Weighting and Clustering Method ZHANG Liang-liang，JIAYuan-hua，NIU Zhong-hai，LIAO Cheng 2014, 14(6): 147-151.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1844KB) ( )   Considering the different effect of each traffic parameter (traffic flow, speed, occupancy or density) on traffic state classification，the method is proposed to classify traffic state of urban traffic based on the parameter weighting. According to the similarity measurement method, a parameter evaluation function is put forward to give each parameter a parameter weighting based on weighted Euclidean distance, and minimize the function using the gradient method. After obtaining parameter weighting values, this paper uses the weighted Euclidean distance to replace the common Euclidean distance in Fuzzy C- means Clustering (FCM). Finally, we classify the traffic state using the proposed methodology, the traffic parameter data come from the road network, and comparing to the method of FCM. The results show that the proposed methodology which classifies the traffic state classification is more consistent with actual conditions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization of Zone Selection of Naval Escort in Pirates Active Areas Based on Stackelberg Games ZHU Le-qun, LU Jing, LI Jing 2014, 14(6): 152-157.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1753KB) ( )   To optimize the zone selection of naval escort for enhancing maritime security in pirates active areas. Firstly, the decision behaviors of the naval force and pirates in such areas are systematically analyzed. Secondly, a non-cooperative non-zero sum Stackelberg game is developed. The game builds the interactive relationships among the naval force and a pirate, which also can be described as a bi-level programming model. In order to solve this model, a heuristic algorithm called SAB is designed. Finally, the Somali pirates are taken as an example to implement the calculation. The results show that the best selection of naval escort zone is still the Gulf of Aden, while the pirates will be more willing to choose the Red sea area. The results also prove the rationality of models and the algorithm. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Route Choice Behaviour Based on Time Surplus Random Regret-minimization Model LI Meng-tian, JI Xiang-feng, ZHANG Jian, RAN Bin 2014, 14(6): 158-163.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1446KB) ( )   The last step of conventional four-stage transport planning model, traffic assignment, is mainly based on the results of modeling the route choice behaviour of travellers. In order to overcome the drawbacks for the majority of travel choice model, random utility-maximization model, Chorus presented an alternative named random regret- minimization model. This paper proposes a dual- constrained random regret model rooted in the economic theory of indifference curve. Considering the case of overlapping and route perception variance, an improved formulation is provided, and the proposed model is tested in sample networks. Numerical results demonstrate the validity of the formulations. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Time Equitability-based Crew Scheduling Optimization for Urban Rail Transit FENG Fu, CHEN Shao-kuan,DU Peng 2014, 14(6): 164-170.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1860KB) ( )   Crew scheduling of urban rail transit system, whose quality have a significant influence on the operational efficiency of urban rail transit, is an important part of urban rail transit operational management. This paper imports equilibrium as the indicator assessing the reasonability of the whole crew’s shift and rest in given period with minimum cost, on the basis of which an improved model for crew scheduling is established. Then in order to take into count the best match of shifts and the proper combination of morning and night shifts synchronously, the solution for the model is disassembled into two consistent phases that refers to the greedy algorithm and bi- direction matching method. Finally, this model is applied in the case study of the urban rail transit system in Beijing and achieves a better performance compared to the existing crew scheduling solution. As a result, the improved model upgrades effectively the time equitability of the crew scheduling. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Activity-travel Schedule Planning Based on Competing Risk Hazard Model WUWen-jing, LUO Qing-yu, JIA Hong-fei 2014, 14(6): 171-175.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1328KB) ( )   The study of the schedule planning of travelers helps to understand the process of travelers’ decisions. Also it is the premise of enacting and implementing traffic management strategy and policy. A competing risk hazard model, which describes simultaneously the duration of the present activity and the choice of the next activity, is presented. The application of the model extended to the field of traditional hazard models which account for only one delete events. The model is estimated based on the survey data of Jilin City, China. The covariates used in the model represent factors that affect activity scheduling. The estimated model suggesting that there is interrelated and constraint relationship between N and N+1 times activities of travelers, Moreover, the strength of that relations are change significantly with type of activities. The competing risk models used in this paper are a useful tool for describing such differences. These fundamental works is help for enriching and expanding the travel behavior analysis theory and method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization for Key Design Parameters of Multi-modal Public Transport Network on Grid Urban Structure WANG Zhen-bao, CHEN Yan-yan 2014, 14(6): 176-181.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1755KB) ( )   Urban public transit consists of multiple transit modes, such as railway, BRT and bus. The integration of multi-class urban public transit lines is very important to achieve a more efficient transit system. To the grid road network, this paper presents an urban public transport network structure integrating multi-class public transit lines and transfer hubs. The urban public transit network structure consists of primary routes, feeder routes and accessorial route. Primary routes spacing, MRT stops spacing and the size of transfer hub service zone are the key design variables. From the points of view of the traveler, operator and authority respectively, the optimization objective functions for the key design variables are formulated, and the numerical analysis is carried out to find the optimal solution. For the given input parameters values, the recommended values of the key design variables are put forward. The results can provide a reference for the integration planning of multi modal transit lines for the big city. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Capacity of Closely-spaced Parallel Runways Using Dependent Approach Procedures TAO Mei, NIE Run-tu, ZHAOWei-jing 2014, 14(6): 182-187.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1797KB) ( )   Currently, the runway capacity of closely- spaced parallel runways using segregated operation has been widely attached importance, however, runway capacity using dependent approach procedures which promises greater potential has not yet been paid due attention. This paper develops analytical models for calculating the ultimate arrival, mixed operating capacity of closed- spaced runways using dependent approach procedures which is the experience of other countries for reference. The models are based on a timing diagram in accord with realistic operational features of dependent procedures. The models are applied to calculating the ultimate capacity of closed-spaced runways at Shang hai/ Pudong airport. The output from the models consists of corresponding capacities and their variations depending on key parameters such as aircraft fleet mix characterized by the wake-vortex categories and radar separation diagonally with pairs of lead/trailing aircraft. The results show that the method accurately grasps the operating characteristics and the results are of great significance for the operation of ATC. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Calculation Method of Sector Capacity in Operation Based on Traffic Flow Pattern WANG Hong-yong, LIUWen, ZHAO Yi-fei 2014, 14(6): 188-193.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1391KB) ( )   Sector capacity is a fundamental parameter for air traffic operation management, whose evaluation methods based on controller workload. It can only be applied in strategic flow management so far for its strong subjective nature and poor timeliness. This paper attempts to establish a new calculation method of the sector operating capacity on the basis of the actual radar data. First, through the analysis of radar data and the characteristics of traffic flow, traffic flow of sector could be divided into five standard modes based on certain principles. Then match the selected test sequence with the DTW algorithm. Finally, we count the maximum flow of sector in this mode and define it as the capacity of sector. Thereby we can get the sector operating capacity. This method overcomes the barriers that current subjective capacity evaluation methods face by starting from analyzing controller workload. It is a potential key technology supporting performance based operation of the new-generation ATM system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Bi-level Programming Model for VMS Layout Considering Local Queuing Delay JI Xiao-feng, QINWen-wen 2014, 14(6): 194-200.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1740KB) ( )   Using Monte Carlo methodology to characterize randomness of the road network state, a number of candidate variable message signs (VMS) locations are deployed in bottleneck links, and then a biobjective bi-level programming model is established for optimization of VMS location. The upper level model is a dual-objective programming model considering the minimum of uncertain risk decision-making and the maximum of guidance benefits. The lower level model is stochastic user equilibrium with local network considering queuing delay. The augmented Lagrange dual algorithm combined with method successive average algorithm is adopted to solve the lower model, and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm- II (NSGA-II) is adopted to solve the whole bi- level programming. Analysis result indicates that NSGA-II can effectively solve the bi-level programming model of VMS location under the restriction of capital budget, and get 6 Pareto solutions. Outcomes of this research can provide decision support for optimization and construction of VMS layout in uncertain road network. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evaluation on Traffic Congestion Mitigation in Beijing with Variable Message Signs ZHOU Yang-fan, JIA Shun-ping, GUANWei, LIU Shuang 2014, 14(6): 201-206.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1659KB) ( )   The variable message signs (VMS) provide an effective method to mitigate urban traffic congestion and balance traffic demand through publishing guidance messages. For evaluating the mitigating effect of VMS on congestion, a general-purpose model utilizing the data mining method is developed . The data includes published messages and a large amount of historical traffic flow collected from VMS publishing system and detectors which reflects the most realistic traffic conditions in Beijing road traffic network. Specially, road traffic statuses under two types of messages, guidance message and notice message, are compared to recognize which one is more effective. In the case study, spatial and temporal analyses are introduced separately to evaluate the mitigation of congestion under various traffic conditions. The results indicate that guidance messages on VMS make more significant contributions to improve the level of service of congested roads. Particularly, guidance messages always appeared more effective than notice messages under severe congestion. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Experimental Research on Optimal Design of School Zone Traffic Safety Facilities ZHAO Xiao-hua，LI Jia-hui，LI Jian-feng，RONG Jian 2014, 14(6): 207-212.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1528KB) ( )   As the key traffic protection zone, school zone has attracted attention of all circles. In order to improve the traffic safety of school zones, this paper focuses on the traffic safety facilities around primary schools in Beijing. A field investigation of road traffic condition and conflict between people and vehicles is conducted, aiming to classify the types of schools. Meanwhile, the demand for traffic safety facilities around primary schools base on different groups of traffic participants is obtained through a subjective questionnaire. Afterwards, a driving simulator experiment is performed to evaluate the effects of different programs with various traffic safety facilities. The differences in performances are discussed with three dependent variables including average speed, relative speed difference, standard deviation of acceleration. Finally, the optimal program is got for different types of schools. It provides a theoretical basis for the optimal setting program of traffic safety facilities for different school zone. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Characteristics of Vehicle Speed for Expressway under Different Visibility Condition LI Chang-cheng, LIU Xiao-ming, RONG Jian, WU Si-yuan 2014, 14(6): 213-218.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1642KB) ( )   This paper explores the effects of traffic visibility on characteristics of vehicle speed, based on the traffic and road weather data of detectors positioned on the road segment between Jinshan and Wuhannan interchange of Jinggangao (G4) expressway in Hubei province. Focusing on the limited visibility weather element, this paper analyzes the effects of visibility on the mean speed and speed variation by fog or non-fog weather, or under fog weather condition with different visibility; speed characteristics are deeply explored from aspects of different factors of traffic lane, vehicle types and temporal hour, utilizing detailed traffic data containing traffic lane and vehicle type information. The comprehensive speed prediction model is built under fog weather condition considering several factors based on the classic traffic flow theory of Greenshield’s V- K relation, and the goodness- of- fit of the speed prediction model reaches 80% approximately. The research results of this paper can be useful or as a reference to impacts analysis of limited visibility on traffic safety, operation, and traffic capacity analysis, or decision making process of traffic control measures such as variable speed limit under adverse road weather conditions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Experience and Enlightenment of Asset Management in London Urban Rail Transit Systems WANG Yao, YE Xiao-chun, WU Ke-qi 2014, 14(6): 219-222.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1224KB) ( )   The urban rail transit systems develop rapidly in China recently, the management of the huge assets is becoming more and more important. Based on the investigations on the assets management of urban rail systems in different cities, this paper analyzes the existing problems in asset management of urban rail transit systems in China. Then this paper sums up the asset management strategies in London urban rail transit systems, and provides the strategic countermeasures for China urban rail transit system operation, considering the actual operating situation in China urban rail systems. These countermeasures include establishing the concept of asset life cycle management, developing uniform standard for asset classification and registration, introducing third- party management and regular audit mechanism, building and consummating the asset management information system, and implementing delicacy management of assets maintenance and renovation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Influence of Commuter Constraints Degree on Children Accompany Travel Decision-making Process HE Bao-hong，LIU Yang，HE Min 2014, 14(6): 223-230.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1493KB) ( )   In order to study the internal mechanism of decision-making process for children escort behavior influenced by families' commuter activities. This paper takes families as a unit to build activities-based twodimensional space-time trip chain analysis tool by using the first-hand data of Kunming residents travel diary survey. It dissects spatial characteristics of children accompany travel and typical transfer mode, on the bases of activity theory and time geography. Commuter constraints degree is defined to qualify the degree of parents commuting activities’space constraints and interaction. A structural equation model is established. The result shows that when commute strength of both parents are equivalent which has a strong mutual restriction, they will choose the on-the way mode first and then determine transfer person, transfer mode is determined in the end. When parents commute constraints are uneven, escort become preferential consideration of family activities, and leisure parent will be chosen to shuttle children before transfer mode determined. References | Related Articles | Metrics