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    25 October 2014, Volume 14 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue

    Decision-making Forum

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    Decision-making Forum
    Integrated Traffic and Transportation Development in Road Economic Belt
    ZHANG Guo-wu
    2014, 14(5): 1-9. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1215KB) ( )  

    Traffic economic belt is a social economic formation that is the regional economic activities aggregated distribution along transportation infrastructure. The transportation development intensifies the regional relation among source of raw materials, machining plot and area of consumption. The regional relation gradually changed into vaster regional diffusion, formed the traffic economic belt. On the base, the road economic belt is formed. The 36th conference of“Traffic and Transportation 7+1 Forum”sets its theme as“Integrated Traffic and Transportation Development in Road Economic Belt”. It studies the system, theory and method of integrated traffic and transportation which structures the economic belt. Background on the Silk Road economic belt , analyzes the status of Lianyungang in road economic belt, the function of railway passage and the national strategy. It also analyzes the construction and business innovation of logistics system. It proposes the cooperative development policy for economic belt and integrated traffic and transportation.

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    Core - Peripheral Model of Chinese Civil Aviation Network
    CUI Bo,PAN Shun-rong
    2014, 14(5): 10-14. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1357KB) ( )  

    Civil aviation network is an important carrier of air transport. The development situation of air transport network determines the fundamental operating efficiency of civil aviation. In this paper, the author studies Chinese civil aviation network’s overall structure with the application of core-periphery theory. It is found that there is a typical core-periphery model in Chinese civil aviation network with three central nodes: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. The peripheral node’s exists distance-dependently on the central nodes, and Beijing has the strongest influence. Core nodes’positive impact distance ranges from 500 to 555 km with the overall "∽ type" fluctuant trend, which can be seen as civil aviation network backbone of China. Meanwhile, the education level, regional economic development and the number of the total population have a positive impact on the development of nodes. There is a negative impact on the node development with geographic area and the level of investment in fixed assets. And the level of development of each node will increase with years.

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    Review and Outlook of Round about Capacity
    QU Zhao-wei, DUAN Yu-zhou, SONG Xian-min, XING Yan
    2014, 14(5): 15-22. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1315KB) ( )  

    Capacity is an important part of the operation efficiency at roundabouts. Through analyzing existing capacity models of roundabout, this paper focuses on the problem research principles and methods such as empirical regression model, gap acceptance model and model based on simulation software. The key technologies of modeling are also analyzed. Then the general approaches of modeling roundabout capacity are proposed, combined with some problems easily overlooked in previous study. Determining the interaction mechanism among each traffic flow and considering the significant impact factors, the capacity model is established on the whole. Finally, combing with the control objectives of roundabouts, an outlook is proposed for future studies on roundabout capacity.

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    Transportation Routing in Urban Environments Using Updated Traffic Information Provided through Vehicular Communications
    YOUSEFI Saleh, ABBASI Tofigh, ANVARI Zahra
    2014, 14(5): 23-36. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2783KB) ( )  

    Finding optimal routes for vehicles to reach their destinations is deemed to be a significant challenge and that is an objective in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). In this paper, we propose a mechanism for vehicle routing based on the availability of updated traffic information. The proposed mechanism includes two phases. In the first phase, we propose a TIS (Traffic Information System) which collects the updated traffic status and stores it in the traffic information center. The proposed TIS approach consists of wired or wireless infrastructure and ad hoc inter-vehicle communications. This information will be used for vehicle navigation when a vehicle intends to run some errands. In the second phase, through exercising the available updated traffic information; we propose two different Dijkstra- based vehicle route suggestion algorithms named one-step vehicle path suggestion and step-by-step vehicle path suggestion. In the former, the algorithm is invoked only once at the beginning of the trip in order to obtain the best route towards the destination. The obtained route is then used by the vehicle throughout the journey. Nevertheless, in step-by-step path suggestion algorithm the suggested route toward the destination is being updated and refreshed at each intersection. The proposed step- by- step algorithm is further enhanced by two novel methods for avoiding loop creation. Results of the extensive simulation study using NCTUns 6.0 network simulator shows that both of the routing algorithms use the updated traffic information while the step-by-step algorithm outperforms the one-step path suggestion algorithm.

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    Parameter Estimation of Stochastic Route Choice Model with Floating Car Data
    LI Jun,ZHAO Chang-xiang,TANG Xiao-yu, XIE Liang-hui
    2014, 14(5): 37-42. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1526KB) ( )  

    This study proposes an algorithm to estimate the parameter of Logit route choice model in urban road network with multinomial OD pairs utilizing taxi-floating car data. The relative route impedance is used and the Logit diversion parameter for whole network can be described by one unified dimensionless parameter. The discrete route choice probabilities are converted to continuous form with consideration of the weight of the numbers of trips, and a cumulative function relationship between route choice probability and relative impedance is re-derived from the original Logit route choice model. The least squares method is utilized to estimate of the unified parameter. The numerical example from taxi GPS data of Guangzhou shows that the goodness fit is excellent and the proposed algorithm is effective and convenient to model the route choice behavior with available and massive floating car data.

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    A BDS-based Train Positioning Method Considering Track Characteristics
    LIU Jiang,CAI Bai-gen,WANG Jian
    2014, 14(5): 43-48. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1628KB) ( )  

    Train positioning is one of the important fundamental factors for many railway transportation system applications. The implementation of BDS (BeiDou Navigation Satellite System) in train positioning is capable of greatly improving the autonomy for railway transportation equipments in China. According to the requirements of performance adaptability to the noise interference and operation conditions for train positioning using BDS, a train positioning method considering the track characteristics is proposed in this paper. With this method, characteristics of the rail tracks are extracted from the electronic track map database, with which the system model for state prediction is improved by track constraints, and the pseudo range observation model is enhanced with 1D track location measurement. Results from simulation with field scenes illustrate that the proposed method is capable of enhancing the robustness performance to BDS satellite visibility, and the availability of BDS-based positioning under critical observation conditions is significantly improved, which is with great value for application.

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    Video-based Two-wheel Vehicle Detection for Mixed Traffic Flow Based on Combination Foreground Extraction
    KUANG Xian-yan,WANG Cheng-kun,XU Lun-hui
    2014, 14(5): 49-54. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1496KB) ( )  

    A two-wheel vehicle detection method for mixed traffic flow based on combination foreground extraction method is proposed. The foreground images extracted by Gausssian Mixture Model (GMM) and Background Accumulate Model (BAM) are carried out with“and”operation after the operations of filtration and expansion of morphology, which can filter out a lot of noise in the GMM foreground and extract the interested foreground fields. According to the contour edge character of two-wheel vehicles, the Canny edge detection method is used to extract the edge information. The self-built template and Euclidean distance are used in pattern matching in order to locate and mark the target area. The experiments are performed using the traffic flow video in the classical urban mixed traffic road. The results show that this method has high accuracy of two-wheel vehicle detection.

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    U419
    WENG Jian-cheng, RONG Jian,WANG Meng-jia, LIU Li-li
    2014, 14(5): 55-60. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1543KB) ( )  

    The application of electronic toll collection (ETC) system has gradually expanded in China. Scientifically measure and evaluate the energy and environmental benefits brought by ETC is the key issue of ETC system post-evaluation. This paper presents the evaluation indicators and influencing factors of environment benefit of ETC system, and analyzes the driving characteristics of vehicle passing the toll station area. Then, a comparative analysis experiment under ETC and manual toll collection (MTC) scenarios by using seven typical vehicles are conducted based on the Vehicle Emissions Testing System (VETS).The amount of fuel consumption and pollutant emission (HC compounds, CO compound and NOx compounds) for different toll lanes are obtained from the tests. On this basis, the evaluation indicators calculating model of ETC environmental benefit are built. Finally, taking Beijing as an example, the paper calculates the environmental benefits of per ETC transaction in Beijing using the analysis model. The result shows that the ETC system in Beijing is expected to save fuel consumption of 4.10 million liters, and reduce pollution emissions by 730.9 tons in 2013.

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    Impact of Multi-source Guidance Information on Path Change of Drivers
    MAFei,WU Qun-qi,WANG Lian
    2014, 14(5): 61-66. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1382KB) ( )  

    Multi-source guidance information such as traffic radio, variable message sign(VMS), car GPS and road signs are important basis for the driver to select the optimal path. In order to research the path change behavior mechanism in the multi-source guidance environment, using scenario analysis, taking Xi'an Xianyang International Airport and the West Second Ring Fang Xin district as OD, the main path and the alternative path have been designed. And the SP questionnaire is finally built by taking the toll sensitivity into the driver properties. The frequency of the driver changing from the main path to the alternative path within the OD in a multi-source environment is surveyed. Based on the survey data, the ordered Logit model for the driver path change behavior is constructed. It is found that the dependence of driver's decision to change the path in descending order are variable information signs, traffic radio, car GPS and road signs, reflecting the driver's demand on dynamic and timely information for the guidance process more strongly. Furthermore, in the multi- source guidance information environment, tolls price sensitivity and education level of driver also have significant impacts, while the influence of the driver's age is not significant.

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    Discretionary Lane Changing Modeling Based on Stackelberg Game Theory
    ZHANG Yuan-liang
    2014, 14(5): 67-73. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1746KB) ( )  

    A discretionary lane changing model based on Stackelberg game is proposed. Lane changing is a very complex decision making process. Many factors can affect the driver to make the decision to change the lane. We only consider the discretionary lane changing case. In this case the driver want to obtain more desirable driving status through changing the lane, such as higher speed or bigger time headway, etc. Lane changing is a process of decision making. In this process the driver balances the factors and makes the decision. During changing the lane, the target vehicle and the following vehicle in the target lane can affect each other. And different drivers have different characteristics, i.e. different drivers may make different decisions under the same surrounding status. We use Stackelberg game theory to model this decision making process. Simulation is conducted to verify the proposed discretionary lane changing model.

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    VISSIM Model Calibration Based on IAGSO Algorithm
    TANG Shao-hu,LIU Xiao-ming
    2014, 14(5): 74-80. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1479KB) ( )  

    Microscopic traffic simulation can reproduce the status of urban road traffic conditions. The key step is formulating a simulation model. Then, the model should be calibrated to accurately reflect the operation status of the road traffic. First, the improved adaptive step glowworm swarm optimization (IAGSO) algorithm, and the target function with the queue length as index is designed. Then the VISSIM simulation model calibration method which is developed based on the IAGSO. Finally, the intersection simulation system based on B/S structure is realized to calibrate the established model of a Beijing intersection by VISSIM, and compare the queue length of four vehicle imported directions between pre-and post- calibrations and the on- site investigations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of calibration of VISSIM model parameters based on the IAGSO.

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    Minimum Spacing Calculation for Signalized Intersections on the Urban Arterial
    ZHUO Xi, SHIWen-rong, SHI Qun
    2014, 14(5): 81-86. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1345KB) ( )  

    To heighten the traffic safety level of urban arterial signalized intersection, signalized intersection upstream functional area space factor length formulas for the perception- reaction area , deceleration running area and queue area are proposed. On the basis of that, through analyzing traffic running regular pattern in signal intervals, which include red time, yellow loss, yellow initiation and green time, upstream functional area length models are established. Then the downstream functional area length model considering the decision sight distance is proposed, so that the signalized intersection minimum spacing formula based on the functional area length is determined. Finally, applying Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, adjacent signalized intersections of one arterial are taken as an example for calculation and evaluation. Evaluation results indicate that, compared with the present condition, the adjacent signalized intersection area which satisfies the minimum spacing has the higher traffic safety level. When the spacing is larger than the minimum value, the traffic safety level of the area tends to be stable. It can be seen that, through modeling the functional area length based on signal timing, the proposed minimum spacing calculation method could optimize signalized intersection spacing schemes and heighten the intersection location rationality.

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    Administrative Expenses Calculation for City Taxi Based on Interest Game
    SUN Qi-peng, ZHANG Zhao-fen, ZOU Hai-bo, LI Hao-ran, CHEN Bo
    2014, 14(5): 87-92. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1401KB) ( )  

    In order to scientifically calculate the administrative expenses and solve the problem that the equilibrium between all the participants can not be gotten by the existing method, game theory is adopted to analyze the dynamic game process between taxi company and driver, the profit function of each game path and the equilibrium conditions of each participant. By solving the optimal sub-game Nash equilibrium, the calculation method for administrative expenses range is developed. Furthermore, taking Xi’an taxi as an example to prove the validity of computational method, the fundamental basis for decision making of administrative expenses calculation of city taxi is presented. The studies indicate that the realization condition of interest maximum for each participant is whether they choice the beneficial strategy with greater probability. The administrative expenses calculation from the perspective of interest game can achieve both income balance and alleviate conflicts of interest. The reasonable range for Xi'an is 4 022–5 840 yuan/(month ⋅ veh), that is, there exists an intense interest conflict of 72% of taxi. This conclusion is consistent with the actual, and further verifies the credibility of the calculation method.

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    An Estimation Method of Passenger OD Flows of High-speed Railway Network Based on Fuzzy Predication
    LI Xia-miao,CAO Yao-qian,WANG Hui-jing,XIE Mei-quan,QI Shan
    2014, 14(5): 93-99. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1358KB) ( )  

    Forecasting the variation tendency and fluctuation of passenger flows and obtaining OD matrix of passengers in high speed railways are the base of scheming the passenger trains. In view of relative steady variation of passenger flows, the estimation method and process of passenger OD matrix are present combining with China railway transport in this paper. The method is able to reduce the calculated amount of (n2–2n)while ensure the results exactitude. In consideration of day-fluctuation of passengers, the time series forecasting model and method of passengers is put forward based on fuzzy math, and the range of variation of passengers are estimated. Background on a South high speed railway line, sending passengers of stations are estimated in the predictive period and the predictive errors compared to actual data are less than 1%. Based on estimating sending passengers of stations, passenger OD matrix of the line is reckoned.

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    Personalized Route Planning Algorithm for Urban Rail Transit Passengers
    LIU Sha-sha, YAO En-jian, ZHANG Yong-sheng
    2014, 14(5): 100-104. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1325KB) ( )  

    With the rapid development of urban rail transit network, increased available routes make passengers’trip decision- making become more and more difficult. This study proposes a dynamic metro route planning algorithm with the least generalized cost, in which network LOS variables and personal characteristics are taken into consideration. Firstly, based on the disaggregate choice theory, the metro route choice models for different types of passengers are established with the consideration of LOS variables (e.g. in- vehicle travel time, transfer time, number of transfers, in- vehicle passenger density, etc.) and personal characteristics (e.g. age, trip purpose, etc.). Then, based on the proposed models and the time-varied sectional flow volume, a dynamic personalized route planning algorithm is proposed, which is expected to generate the optimal route with the least generalized time for each type of passengers. Finally, the proposed algorithm is evaluated in Guangzhou Metro conditions. The results indicate that the algorithm can provide passengers with the more reasonable route corresponding with their characteristics, and expresses passenger’s route choice preference more precisely.

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    Hamilton Model and Algorithm for Placing-in and Taking-out Wagon Problem on Branch-shaped Siding
    GUO Chui-jiang, LEI Ding-you
    2014, 14(5): 105-109. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1467KB) ( )  

    Reasonable scheduling for placing- in and taking- out wagons in railway siding is of great significance to improve the operation efficiency of shunting locomotive and speeding up wagon’s turnround. Under given conditions, taking the locomotive running time between sites as weights, the paper transforms the problem of placing- in (or taking- out) wagons into the shortest route problem of Hamilton graph and changed as assignment problem. The Hungarian algorithm is applied to calculate the optimal solution of the assignment problem. Then the lower bound or optimal solution of shortest route is obtained. If it is not a optimal solution, the broken- circle and connection method designed will be applied to find the satisfactory order of placing-in and taking-out wagons, and its computation complexity is O(n2). The paper simultaneously makes a deep discussion on other forms, such as placing-in and transferring combined, takingout and transferring combined, placing- in and taking- out combined, placing- in- transferring and taking- out combined. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the model’s formulation and solution process. A large number of small cases also show that the algorithm’s average complexity and performance is relative superior.

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    Vulnerability Identification Model of Urban Rail Transit System
    YUAN Peng-wei,SONG Shou-xin,DONG Xiao-qing,Lin Xiao-fei
    2014, 14(5): 110-118. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2443KB) ( )  

    There are many vulnerability factors that can make urban rail transit system unsafe and endanger its operation. With the purpose of developing an identification model of vulnerability factors for urban rail transit system, the combined method is proposed which integrates three kinds of method including the DEMATEL, the ISM and the ANP. In the view of the system, the vulnerability factors of urban rail transit system are extracted according to the analysis of typical accident. The hierarchical network structure model of vulnerability is developed using the integrated DEMATEL-ISM-ANP method which took into account a variety of factors, including the mutual influence direction and intensity of the factors, structure of the factors, and the relative importance degree of the factors. According to the analysis about the results of hierarchical network structure model, the vulnerability factors of urban rail transit system are divided into four types: driver, linkage, dependent, autonomous. It is found that the model of integrating the DEMATEL, the ISM and the ANP is appropriate for quantitatively analyzing the vulnerability factors of urban rail transit system.

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    Algorithm Research of Taxi Carpooling Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Fuzzy Recognition
    XIAO Qiang, HE Rui-chun, ZHANGWei,MAChang-xi
    2014, 14(5): 119-125. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1556KB) ( )  

    In some big cities,the effect and efficiency are both poor to the taxi carpooling. The taxi route clustering and carpooling identification of passenger and taxi are studied by fuzzy clustering and fuzzy recognition theory. Through randomly generated many groups of taxi and passengers data, it is pointed that taxi carpooling in particular conditions, taxi numbers will decided the passenger’s carpooling success rate, but it is found that unlimited increase taxi sample number will increase carpooling success rate to passengers in case of a fixed number of passengers, the taxi income will be stabilized, it will not increase with rising of taxi number. The results indicate that the algorithm is suitable for us take the carpooling problem of large numbers taxi and could be effective measurement for taxi carpooling.

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    Modeling and Simulation of Standing Passengers’Space Comfort in Subway Carriage
    WU Qi-bing,CHEN Feng,LIU Ou-yang,FANG Ji-ping,LI Xiao-hong
    2014, 14(5): 126-132. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1521KB) ( )  

    Passengers’comfort declines when passengers are in a crowded subway carriage. According to the concept of body space bubble and the psychological comfort of passengers in the subway carriage, with the investigation of passengers’perceptive space comfort, the theory model of passenger space is established in this paper, and then the standing passenger density evaluation criteria based on space comfort is obtained. Based on the existing pedestrian model, a generalized crowding force is defined by learning the repulsion in the social force model, and a passenger crowding force model in subway carriage is established. Beijing Metro Line 4 is selected for case study. Combined with the passenger density distribution law by the spot investigation, the discrete element software of PFC2D is used to simulate passengers’space comfort by force modality. The results show that the reasonable standing passenger density should be between 4–5 person/m2 when the space comfort grade of 80% of passengers is above comfortable, and the results can provide reference for setting the standard of standing passenger density

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    Ticket Checking Time Methodology of Departure Trains in Railway Passenger Station
    LI Ji-tao,WANG Zhi-yuan,WANG Yu, FU Jia
    2014, 14(5): 133-139. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1911KB) ( )  

    Ticket checking time of departure trains in railway passenger station is determined by realistic investigation. The workload of this method is pretty big and could not reflect the malconformation of passenger flow and the change after checking equipment updating. Therefore, it is necessary to do some quantified research. Firstly , this paper adopts the K-S test method to model the random distribution of passenger checking time; Secondly, according to the passenger behavior for queuing, crowding and switching, a path planning arithmetic based on real-time crowd density is built, a simulation model of the process for checking and getting aboard of departure trains passenger is set up and the validity of the model is verified; Finally, an orthogonally test using the number of sending passenger and automatic checking machine as independent variables is designed, an methodology of departure trains checking time in railway passenger stations according to the data-analyzed consequence of the simulation experiment is put forward, and the validity of the model is tested.

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    Passenger Flow Assignment Method Based on Time and Space Service Network of Train
    TONG Lu, NIE Lei, GUO Zhong
    2014, 14(5): 140-146. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1611KB) ( )  

    Passenger flow assignment theory is the core technology of railway passenger transport product design, and is of great significance to the evaluation of the quality of train service network. This paper studies attributes and establishing method of time and space service network of train constructing from passenger train working diagram, based on analyzing multi- level passenger’s trains choice behavior. It concludes who expect the range of service time (expect the window of service time)and transfer frequency and time, arc sections resistance of network is also determined. The passenger flow assignment model of network reflecting diversified passengers’travel service demand is formulated, which suggests solving the reasonable train space-time service rout choice set of passenger with combinational algorithm composed of the window of service time search algorithm and Dijkstra algorithm. The paper then designs sub-algorithm of passenger flow assignment based on reasonable train space-time service route choice set. At last section, the paper takes passenger train diagram under relevant Beijing-Guangzhou high speed railway network as the initial space-time service network, and conducts passenger flow assignment and validates the effectiveness of the model and the algorithm.

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    Optimization of Car Flow Organization for Regular Train in Railway Hub
    LI Hao-dong,SONG Rui,HU Zhi-gang
    2014, 14(5): 147-153. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1744KB) ( )  

    Optimization of car flow organization for regular trains in railway hub is a rather important way to enhance the efficiency of regular trains. This paper proposes the method to get all the potential transport services at first, based on the schedule of regular trains in railway hub. Then we can obtain a service network of car flow organization. To fulfill the transport demand constraint, and the volume of different demand that the regular trains needed, all the capacity of the arcs in the network are initialized differently. After that, a mixed- integer programming model is presented, with the objective of minimal total cost of car flow organization for regular train in railway hub. At the background of the release and increase of rail freight transport capacity, this model has the cars flow constraint, which must be fulfilled for all the regular trains, while ignored the capacity constraint of arcs and nodes in the network. Then, an example is designed to validate the proposed model.

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    A Re-routing Path Planning Method Based on Maklink Graph and GA Algorithm
    WANG Fei,WANG Hong-yong
    2014, 14(5): 154-160. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1565KB) ( )  

    To ensure flight safety in severe weather, it is necessary to design the optimized route for aircrafts to avoid the dangerous zone. An optimization model is established. Considering several constraints, such as avoiding danger zone, reducing flight segment minimum length, turning angle and turning point number, the model minimizes the total flight path length. After that, a three- stage-method is proposed to solve this model. First, the Maklink graph and the Dijkstra algorithm are used to obtain one flight path to avoid the danger zone. Second, genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the path to obtain the shortest path. Finally, the path is adjusted to satisfy all of the constraints. With the model and method above, several simulation experiments are carried out. Simulation results show that the proposed rerouting path planning method is feasible and effective.

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    Optimal Design of Hub Network in Competitive Environment Based on Robust
    GAO Rong-huan,YANG fang
    2014, 14(5): 161-167. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1810KB) ( )  

    According to the complexity of air transport network, the paper analyzes a hub airport site model and researches hub route network design competitive environment. First, it defines a passenger capacity utility function and capture function on the basis of certain route network. Then, on the basis of the existing hub, under the goals of that obtain maximum passenger capture flow from rivals, screening the new hub location, establishing stepwise hub selection model in competitive environment, and an efficient algorithm is proposed to solve the model. Finally, a random case is selected to test the model, analysis of Hub solution on variation of the parameters in model; by analyzing sensitivity of the projected delay time, verifying the stability solution of optimal hub and the effectiveness of the model. The model can provide a basis for the route planning personnel.

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    Survival Analysis of Traffic Incident Duration for Urban Expressways
    YANGWen-chen, ZHANG Lun, SHI Yi-cheng, YANG Tao
    2014, 14(5): 168-174. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1819KB) ( )  

    This paper introduces the survival analysis into the traffic incident mechanism. A survival analysis based Modeling of traffic incident duration for urban expressways is presented. Based on the observed traffic incident data of viaduct expressways in Shanghai, China, this model first analyzes the feature attributes of many traffic incident samples, and employs nonparametric regression based on Kaplan-Meyer model to estimate hazard- based traffic incident duration. Then, the key impact factors of traffic incident are classified into five types and the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of traffic incident duration time are analyzed. Finally, linear Cox regression is used to comprehensively evaluate multidimensional influencing factors of traffic incident duration. The key characteristic parameters of expressway incident management in Shanghai are optimized to analyze the evolution mechanism of incident duration. The result shows that, for different type of influencing factors, the spatial-time distribution of traffic incident duration in Shanghai expressway has significant difference, and nine factors as day and night, incident type, related vehicle number, related lane number, location, bottleneck and trailer significantly affect the incident duration.

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    An Analysis on Choice Behavior of Tourist Destination Based on Tourist Motivation
    ZHAO Xin,GUAN Hong-zhi,WANG Hao
    2014, 14(5): 175-180. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1315KB) ( )  

    The choice of travel destinations is the key issue of traveling decision-making of tourists. This paper studies tourist’s destination choice behavior. Tourists travel behavior survey conducted in eight parks which located in Beijing area. In order to analyze travel behavior of tourists, the authors investigated 633 tourists using questionnaire survey in Beijing. Four motivation factors were extracted form 22 items and four categories of tourists were classified according to the four motivation dimensions. This paper proves that tourist motivation significantly affects their behavior of travel destination choice by building a two- step model which includes variables of motivation types. In addition, it is revealed that the impact of distance is significantly varied in the two different stages. The model has high accuracy, and this study provides a theoretical basis for further study on destination choice behavior.

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    Model and Simulation for the Node Failure Percolation Robustness of Hazardous Goods Transportation Network
    HU Peng,SHUAI Bin,ZHAO Jia-hong
    2014, 14(5): 181-187. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1910KB) ( )  

    In order to scientifically design hazmat transport network, select the nodes, and slow down the damage under emergency, we model and simulation for the node failure percolation robustness of hazardous materials transportation network with emergency cases. Therefore, we combine the natural phenomenon about liquid through slit by percolating and percolation theory on complex network to establish the simulation model. And then, according to scenarios and the simulation flow chart, simulation experiment is done by using MATLAB software. The aim of it is for the quantitative analyzing the rate of network connectivity, the number of nodes which are effected by percolated, the rate of percolation failure and the bearing capacity of nodes, and the qualitative analyzing the effect of the node failure percolation robustness of hazardous goods transportation network of different node degree under emergency situation and node bearing capacity factor. Finally, simulation results show that adding the number of nodes which have too large degree will reduce the robustness of hazardous goods transportation network, and increasing the bearing capacity of nodes can strengthen the robustness and fault tolerance.

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    Modeling and Simulating Herding Behavior and Information Spreading Process in Pedestrian Flow
    QU Yun-chao,GAO Zi-you,LI Xin-gang
    2014, 14(5): 188-193. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1546KB) ( )  

    Pedestrian evacuation has become a focus problem,and it has been widely concerned by scholars in recent years. It is very useful for managers to study the dynamic movement behavior of pedestrian evacuations. Making scientific evacuation strategies and effective controlling policies are the keys to reduce the accidents and guarantee the safety of pedestrians. In the microscopic level,based on the heuristic force- based model,an integrated simulation model is proposed to describe the herding behavior and information spreading process in pedestrian evacuation. The impacts of the factors on pedestrian route choice behavior,which includes the vision field,structure size,and gained information,have been included in the model. The simulation results show the herding behavior can improve the evacuation efficient in some level. In a density crowd,the herding behavior may lead to local congestion.

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    Empirical Research on Robust Optimal Path Problem in Stochastic Time-dependent Networks
    CAO Hui,DUAN Zheng-yu,CHEN Chuan
    2014, 14(5): 194-201. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2185KB) ( )  

    There are many uncertain factors affecting the service level of urban road network. The paper discusses the connecting route problem among urban areas. It proposes a robust optimization model taking the description of stochastic time-dependent network and selecting principles for robust paths into consideration. An advanced Dijkstra algorithm is put forward to solve the problem. Using Shenzhen GPS data, the paper establishes a stochastic time-dependent network, and studies the model and algorithm of the optimal robust path. The results indicate that the travel time varies from the different departure time, and the components of path are not the same, neither. At last, the result is compared with ones which are obtained by a normal algorithm based on time-dependent network. The comparison shows that the advanced algorithm is an effective method to apply into selecting robust route among urban areas.

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    Mode Choice Behavior Model of Urban Public Transport Based on SEM
    CHEN Jian,YANG Ya-zao,LI Xiao-bin,MU Li-bin
    2014, 14(5): 202-208. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1537KB) ( )  

    To solve the existing mode choice behavior model of urban public transport considered only the observable variables, but do not relate to the unobserved latent variables which affect travel choices. And a structural equation model(SEM) of urban public transport mode choice behavior is built based on latent variables and observable variables. The quantitative relationship between various influencing factors and the effect to choice results are analyzed. With traveler personality traits, behavior characteristics of different groups are studied. Finally, the model is used in the Chengdu example analysis. It is pointed that the perceived value has a significant influence on choice results and can explain 62% of the travel behavioral intention. The service quality effect on perceived value is bigger than the price rationality. Choice behavior characteristics of different groups exist certain difference.

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    Traffic Flow System Damping Ratio Characteristics Analysis Based on OV Model
    ZHANG Li-dong,ZHANG Yuan,ZHANG Meng-meng,ZHUWen-xing
    2014, 14(5): 209-216. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1542KB) ( )  

    Investigating traffic flow system’s stability by converting traffic car- following model is an crucial way to control system transfer function through Laplace transformation or z transformation. The traffic flow system stability problem is transformed to the control system stability problem. On further consideration, steady control system has different dynamical properties under different damped ratios. To investigate the characteristics of steady traffic flow system, with optimal velocity model, this paper studies its step response dynamical performance index of underdamped and overdamped conditions based on control theory time-domain analysis method. The simulation results show that the overdamped ratio system is more stable than underdamped ratio system, but has longer settling time than the latter. As far as traffic flow system is concerned, step response can be regarded as the model of some kind unexpected traffic incident, therefore such parameters as delay time, rise time, peak time and settling time can be used as reference time range for dealing with traffic events.

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    Loading Rate Variance Analysis for Road Freight Vehicles Based on Kruskal-Wallis Test
    ZHANG Zhi-jun,WANG Pan-pan
    2014, 14(5): 216-220. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1284KB) ( )  

    To find a better variance analysis method for loading rates of road freight vehicles and obtain an effective way to improve loading rates, this paper analyses the application limitations on variance analysis, factor analysis and hypothesis testing. Then, using the current road transportation statistics data, the paper proposes a new method of variance analysis for loading rates of road freight vehicles based on Kruskal- Wallis test and validates the method in Shanxi Province, China. The results show that there are significant differences in road freight vehicle loading rates by different regions, tonnage, number of axes, and business models. And there is also a big difference among homogeneous subsets of multiple comparison tests.

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    Variable Speed Limits for Freeway under Rain Weather Based on Cell Transmission Model
    ZHANG Cun-bao,ZHANG Pei-ling,YAN Xin-ping,JIANG Zhou
    2014, 14(5): 221-226. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1333KB) ( )  

    Variable speed limits can decrease traffic congestion and accident risk due to rainfall. For rain weather, the control strategy of variable speed limits system are described; the classic Cell Transmission Model is improved, and dynamic traffic flow models for rain weather are proposed; optimization models of variable speed limits for rainfall are presented, considering both traffic safety and efficiency. Experiment results show that, comparing with static speed limit, freeway average speed increased by 9.3%, total travel time decreased by 11.7%, and the maximum speed difference between adjacent sections decreased from 17.5 km/h to 9.4 km/h by 46.3%.The results mean that variable speed limits can improve freeway traffic efficiency and safety under rain weather.

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    Analyzing the Change of Commuting Accessibility by Car and its Driving Forces in Beijing
    WANG Yun-jing,CHEN Yan,LI Qiang
    2014, 14(5): 227-233. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3223KB) ( )  

    There is dynamic correlation between urban spatial structure evolution and traffic development, and accessibility is their key link. This paper analyzes the temporal evolution from 2000 to 2010 and driving forces of commuting accessibility by car in Beijing by employing the potential model and sensitivity analysis at 1km × 1km scale. The results show that: in time commuting accessibility by car has been greatly improved by 54%; in space, the spatial distribution of commuting accessibility decreasing from center outward has little change; however, the spreading phenomenon along the ring roads and highways is more obvious in 2010. Moreover, the absolute and relative changes of commuting accessibility in different areas are significantly different. As a whole, changing urban spatial structure plays a positive role in improve commuting accessibility, while some positive effects has been offset by that of decreasing speed of road networks. Therefore, facilitating the coordination between transportation infrastructure and urban spatial structure is still an important topic for future research.

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    An Empirical Study on the Impact of Travel Intention during Public Health Emergency
    HUANG Chun-hui, CHANG Ya-ping,ZHOU Xin-jian
    2014, 14(5): 234-241. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1639KB) ( )  

    Based on the model of goal- directed behavior, a conceptual model is set up to investigate travelers’intention after public health emergency. This paper raises 10 hypotheses, and finally reveals the mechanism of action after public health emergency. At the same time, it carries out the empirical analysis for samples with regression analysis and path analysis. The results show that attitude, perceived behavior control and positive anticipated emotion have a positive effect toward travel desire, and travel desire and non- pharmaceutical interventions have a positive effect to travel intention, but the negative anticipated emotion has a negative effect to travel intention. The cognition toward public health emergency has a positive effect to the behavior of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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