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    25 August 2016, Volume 16 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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    Time-sharing Lease and Wisdom Travel
    ZHANG Guo-wu
    2016, 16(4): 1-10. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1218KB) ( )  

    City’s car- renting services combined with the mobile internet, with control technology of intelligent vehicle, resulting in the new model time- sharing lease and wisdom travel, which is an effective way to save the social resources and optimize the traffic structure of large cities. The 43rd conference of “Traffic and Transportation 7 + 1”sets its theme as“Time- sharing Lease and Wisdom Travel”. Emerging technologies are becoming more and more mature, and intelligent equipments are becoming more and more popular and widely used. Internet management systems based on big data cloud services can realize intelligent monitor, and make vehicle access to the internet platform to achieve real- time management. It makes travel services more convenient and safe. It is a new attempt to promote the innovation of transport organization by the quasi-public transport service which is produced under the background of new industrial technology revolution. It can elevate the efficiency of utilizing vehicle, optimize travel mode. It is expected to play an important role in meeting the growing demand for travel, easing urban traffic congestion etc. Thereby to promote the optimization and adjustment of urban transportation structure, realize the sustainable development of urban traffic.

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    An Improved Generalized DEA Evaluation Model of Regional Road Traffic Safety
    DANG Xiao-xu,WANG Yuan-qing, WU Zhou-hao, LIU Yuan-yuan, LI Chao
    2016, 16(4): 11-16. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1247KB) ( )  

    To evaluate regional transportation safety scientifically and provide basis for formulating road traffic safety strategy, this paper builds the regional road traffic safety evaluation index system with analysis of multiple correlation. A road traffic safety evaluation generalized DEA model is established to face panel data and produce only unexceptional results based on theory of partially ordered sets and data envelopment analysis. This model is used to evaluate the traffic safety level of 9 target nations from 2000 to 2012. Research shows that: since 2000, the Chinese traffic safety level gradually turns for the better, but there is still a certain gap from the international advanced level, and improvement rate is slowing, the traffic safety management should be continued to strengthen. Comparing with other methods, the results of evaluation model of this paper proposed is in good conformity with reality.

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    Passenger Choice Model in Regional Transportation Consider Influence of Urban Internal Travel
    CHEN Jian,ZHAO Han-lin,FU Zhi-yan,MU Li-bin
    2016, 16(4): 17-23. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1241KB) ( )  

    In order to solve the problem that it lacks of quantitative consideration of the urban internal travel influence in passenger choice model in regional transportation, the whole process of regional travel is divided into three stages from the whole trip chain point. Then it is distinguished that the common and different influencing factors between regional and urban internal travel. The concept of inclusive values is proposed which is used to describe the comprehensive effect of urban internal travel to the choice of regional travel mode. The regional travel choice model, considering the urban internal travel function, is constructed based on the NL model. The characteristic variables are defined, and the parameters are determined by using NLOGIT software. Finally, Chengdu- Chongqing transport channel as a case to apply the proposed model, and 524 valid questionnaires are collected. The results show that urban internal travel is mainly affected by travel time, costs and transfer, and the superior ratio of the propose model is increased by 0.145 than the traditional model. Meanwhile, the interpretation and accuracy is improved.

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    Quantitative Method to Human Reliability Assessment for Maritime Accident
    WU Bing, YAN Xin-ping,WANG Yang, WEI Xiao-yang
    2016, 16(4): 24-30. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1378KB) ( )  

    Human reliability, on one hand, is influenced by the risk level in the stage of risk mitigation; on the other hand, is affected by the influencing factors in the stages of emergency response. Therefore, in order to make comprehensive assessment on human reliability, the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and belief degree are introduced in human reliability quantification from the perspective of both risk mitigation and emergency response. First, the evaluation criteria for risk factors and risk priority number is established by using triangular fuzzy numbers, and the risk factors are integrated by using evidential reasoning method, from which the risk priority number is obtained. Second, human factors interaction model is introduced to quantify all the influencing factors of human reliability. Moreover, the checklists of human factors are established, and the model for human reliability assessment is developed by using belief degree. Finally, a typical sinking accident is selected to verify the proposed model. The result demonstrates that the proposed method can make a comprehensive assessment on human reliability.

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    Security Region of Transportation Network
    XIAO Jun, LONG Meng-hao, LIN Qi-si
    2016, 16(4): 31-38. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1661KB) ( )  

    Security region of power grid is applied to traffic engineering in an interdisciplinary way. This paper presents the security region of transportation network, which is defined as the set of flow state (operating points) meeting N-1 security in the transportation network. The set has a closed boundary, and the operating points in the boundary meet N-1 security while points out of the boundary. Firstly, this paper defines N-1 security of the transportation systems, which means the road network allows vehicles to reach their destination by other routes and not trapped in the road when a road is blocked. Secondly, it proposes the model for security region, boundary equations. Then, it proposes the method to calculating security boundary distance. Finally, two examples are presented to demonstrate the security of the traffic network, the fact that the security region is not accurately predicted by the simulation of N-1, the degree of security of the boundary distance, and the fact that preventive control scheme can improve the security. The correctness of the above results is verified by the traffic simulation software TransCAD.

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    Energy Efficiency of Chinese Transportation Industry under Environmental Constraints
    SONG Zhen, CONG Lin
    2016, 16(4): 39-45. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1654KB) ( )  

    With a steady decline in other industries contrary, transportation energy intensity and carbon intensity are shown an upward trend, so that transportation is becoming one of the energy saving short board. Considering CO2 emission constraint, a super- efficient undesirable MinDS model is built to evaluate the transportation energy efficiency of Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2013. The Global Malmquist-Luenberger Index is used to dynamic analysis the efficiency changes. The result shows that: the energy efficiency of Chinese transportation industry is in an overall downward trend with anti- N type; there are significant differences between provinces in eastern and western area; provinces in central and northeast region shows consistency, although the overall low level; super- efficient undesirable MinDS model effectively overcome the flaw of undesirable SBM model, and it can absolutely ranking and objectively estimate the efficiency score; the main factors that cause a decline in transportation energy efficiency is the decline of technical efficiency, but the situation will be improved in the future.

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    Review of Bicyclist Microscopic Behavior Studies
    LIANG Xiao, RONG Ya-ping,ZHAO Xin-miao,LIU Shuang
    2016, 16(4): 46-53. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1206KB) ( )  

    With the increasing of bicycles in urban areas, modeling and analyzing the bicycle microscopic behavior has become crucial to study the mixed urban traffic. The paper reviews the state of the art in studying the bicycle microscopic behavior on the basis of extensive literatures. The microscopic behavior of bicycles, which is divided into two levels: Operational Level and Selective Level, is analyzed from both a physical and dynamic perspective. The existing models of bicycles can be divided into two categories: rule based approach (e.g., bicycle following models, cellular automata models and Agent models) and force field based approach (e.g., vector field models, social force models and Logic models), the modeling approaches in each of the categories are summarized and evaluated. Finally, the future development trend of bicycle microscopic behavior studying is predicted.

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    The Gradation of Urban Multi-model Transit Networks
    JIANG Xian-cai, LI Ya-hui, MO Jian-liang
    2016, 16(4): 54-59. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1411KB) ( )  

    Aiming at the situation that the lack of the basis of multi-mode public transportation network planning in China, the characteristics of the urban public transport travel distance is analyzed, and the model of urban public transit distance distribution is established with the double parameter Weibull distribution. Based on the generalized travel cost, the model of multi-model transit network dominance trip distance is established. On the basis of supply and demand balance, the grading model of multi-modal transit network is determined. Taking Harbin transit network as an example, the reasonable scale and gradation of multi-model transit network in Harbin in 2020 are calculated. The results show that the calculated results are consistent with the expected demand in 2020, which shows that the model is reasonable and feasible.

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    Application of Elastic Coefficient Method in the Construction of Intercity High-speed Railway
    WU Jiang, JIAYuan-hua
    2016, 16(4): 60-66. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1517KB) ( )  

    The high- speed railway provides an efficient means of transportation to people. Firstly, the generalized cost function is used to measure the change of the comprehensive passenger transportation cost which is caused by the high-speed railway operation in two regions. Combined it with the change of passenger traffic volume in the two regions, the transportation cost demand elasticity is obtained for measuring the urgency of the two areas for the opening of high-speed railway, so as to measure the feasibility of high-speed railway construction in another level. Subsequently, according to the theory of transportation economics and new economic geography, the transportation cost demand elasticity is modeled from five dimensions which are population, distance, differences in per capita GDP, average per capita GDP and industrial structure similarity. Neural network is used to fit the influence mechanism from these five variables, and thus as the basis to measure Beijing and Zhangjiakou City for urgent degree to the upcoming opening of the Beijing-Zhangjiakou high-speed railway.

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    Forecasting Research of Commercial Volume of Integrated Transportation Hub Property——A Case Study of Shapingba Integrated Transportation Hub in Chongqing
    PENG Qi-yuan, CHEN Xin-mei, YIN Yong, YI Bin, ZHOU Da-yin
    2016, 16(4): 67-72. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1972KB) ( )  

    Present researches about the development of superstructure of integrated transportation hub station mainly focused on the social economy and the benefits, rather than considering the impact to the traffic and the impact from the roads around it. In this paper, taking the Chongqing Shapingba integrated transportation hub as the example, basing on large amount of traffic database, in consideration of the culture and geography features, Shapingba hub is designed to be a stereoscopic commercial complex. And trading area theory is used to calculate the total scale of the commercial facilities. Then different planning schemes are put forward. At last according to the background traffic volume, the spherical extrapolation method is used to analyze the traffic impact of this integrated transportation hub and to compare different schemes.

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    Visibility Analysis for Freeway Based on Comparison of Ordinary and Infrared Images
    DU Yu-chuan, ZHANG Xiao-ming, LIU Cheng-long, LIU Xiang
    2016, 16(4): 73-78. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1453KB) ( )  

    The real- time monitoring of the low visibility of the freeway is very important for the traffic safety. This paper is aimed at establishing a visual distance monitoring model which is specially applied to freeway. The visual degree is proposed, and the ratio of the pixel points of the common image and infrared image is presented, which can reflect the actual visual distance, then the paper establishes the visibility model. At the same time, the temperature correction factor is proposed for reducing the impact of temperature on the infrared image, and the correction coefficient of the camera is proposed according to the different imaging quality. Then, several areas are got by dividing the infrared image according range, and according to the distance from the camera, the visual inspection table is established through cumulative percentage of pixels for different areas. Results show that the model has a certain degree of reliability and good accuracy of less than 11%, the visibility model can be used to well determine the visual distance in the low visibility environment, which can effectively improve freeway driving safety.

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    Vehicle Reversing Obstacle Measurement Based on Binocular-camera Stereo Vision
    LIU Yu-gang,WANG Zhuo-jun,WANG Fu-jing, ZHANG Zu-tao, XU Hong
    2016, 16(4): 79-87. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2233KB) ( )  

    It is one of the important urban traffic hidden troubles that accidents caused by driver reversing. In order to solve the shortcomings of traditional vehicle reversing technology based on machine vision, such as image distortions and low accuracy of distance perception, a vehicle reversing obstacle detection and measurement is presented based on binocular-camera stereo vision. The internal and the external parameters can be obtained according to the binocular calibration theory, which can be used to analyze the condition of the camera distortion. Then, calibration parameters are used to correct the binocular image. A method named epipolar constraint is used to get a pair of images coplanar. After this, the actual coordinates of each object in the image can be acquired through parallax of binocular image and the triangulation principle. Finally, the effectiveness of the obstacle measurement based on binocular camera stereo vision is verified by calculating the error between the measured distance and the actual distance, which is accomplished through fixing a single object. The experimental results show that the camera x-coordinate value is almost consistent with the actual results. Stereo rectification removes distortions and turning the stereo pair of images into standard aligned form which are nearly coplanar. The method can detect the rear obstacles effectively, and improve the ability to reverse the environmental awareness. Besides, it can improve the safety performance of the reversing process.

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    Traffic Sign Detection under Fog and Haze Weather
    XUE Yu-li
    2016, 16(4): 88-94. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1546KB) ( )  

    To solve the crucial issue of efficient traffic sign detection under fog and haze environment, a fast and robust detection algorithm is proposed in this paper. First, enhanced images are obtained by defogging with dark channel prior principle, which are further converted into normalized red- blue images. Then, different thresholds are applied to obtain series of binary images, where connected regions that remain unchanged are selected as the region of interest. Finally, interference regions are further removed by shape constraints of traffic signs, and the final detection results are obtained. Abundant experimental results show that image qualities under fog and haze weather are enhanced after defogging, and traffic sign detection performance is improved significantly. The detection efficiency is higher in the region of maximum stability comparing with the single threshold detection algorithm.

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    Safety Prediction Model of Lane Changing Based on Driver Assistance System
    NI Jie, LIU Zhi-qiang, TU Xiao-jun, DONG Fei
    2016, 16(4): 95-100. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1524KB) ( )  

    In order to adapt the dynamic road traffic conditions for the lane changing assistance system, the maximum and average deceleration of the following vehicle on target lane are presented to analyze the influence degree of lane changing on road traffic safety, based on the simulated driving test data. The data are divided into three categories by K- means, such as danger, safety and comfort. The results show that egovehicle velocity, velocity difference and distance between ego- vehicle and adjacent- following vehicle, the longitudinal acceleration have significant differences by comparing the operating parameters of the three kinds data. Taking ego-vehicle velocity, velocity difference and distance between ego-vehicle and adjacentfollowing vehicle, the longitudinal acceleration as input variables, and the kinds of lane change influence as output variables, the safety prediction model of lane changing is established by SVM. The forecasting result shows that the prediction accuracy of the dangerous lane changing behavior can reach 91.1%, and the model has good prediction effect.

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    The Mixed Traffic Flow of Manual-automated Driving Based on Safety Distance
    QIU Xiao-ping, MALi-na, ZHOU Xiao-xia, YANG Da
    2016, 16(4): 101-108. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2770KB) ( )  

    With the development of vehicle technology, more and more autonomous vehicles appear on street, which will greatly impact on road traffic. This paper improves the NaSch cellular automata model by taking into account the Gipps safe distance algorithm. The traffic flow mixed by manual and autonomous vehicles are studied using numerical simulation method, and several new conclusions are drawn. First, the highway capacity can be dramatically increased, up to twice of the original capacity value, by adjusting the reaction time of the autonomous driving vehicle. Second, the influence of the reaction time on the highway traffic capacity can be ignored, when the value of the reaction time is reduced to 0.5s. Third, the proportion of the autonomous vehicles in traffic has significant impact on the road capacity and traffic congestion. When the autonomous vehicles is 80%, the highway capacity will be twice of the capacity of the traffic flow consisting of only manual vehicles and the traffic congestion can be reduced up to 50%. Fourth, in the fully autonomous driving traffic flow, increasing the autonomous driving reaction time can reduce the traffic congestion. Especially, when the density is in the range of 30~60 veh/km, the congestion can be reduced 20%, which can be used as an important strategy of traffic congestion mitigation.

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    Influence of Vehicle-to-vehicle Communication on Traffic Accidents in Heavy Fog Weather
    CHEN Yu-feng, XIANG Zheng-tao, YAN Peng, DONG Ya-bo, XIA Ming
    2016, 16(4): 109-116. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2480KB) ( )  

    With fog environment,drivers present different driving behaviors compared with normal weather,which may bring security threats to drivers. To ensure traffic security,traffic management department will close highway when heavy fog occurs,which makes people inconvenient. The traditional visual based and vehicle-to-vehicle communication based driving-behavior modes are analyzed firstly. Based on the driving-behavior modes,the traffic flow cellular automaton models are proposed. Simulation results show that vehicle- to- vehicle communication technology can decrease the local compact effect,which can decrease the traffic accident probability effectively. The traffic accident probability with vehicle- to- vehicle communication decreases much in low density. The research results can provide reference to the continue release of highway when heavy fog occurs if the vehicle-to-vehicle communication technology is used.

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    RAIM Availability Prediction Method for BDS-based Train Positioning
    LIU Jiang, CAI Bai-gen,WANG Jian
    2016, 16(4): 117-124. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1943KB) ( )  

    The cost-efficiency and performance of train positioning can be greatly enhanced by using the BeiDou navigation satellite system (BDS). In order to meet the specific requirements of railway applications, the integrity of BDS- based train positioning should be monitored effectively. Aiming at enhancing the conventional receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) solutions, in this paper, a RAIM availability prediction method for the BDS- based train positioning is proposed. In this method, the off- line RAIM computation is performed based on the BDS almanac and train operation plan, which can estimate the probable integrity status during practical operations in advance. The prediction results provide priori information for the on- line RAIM and guarantee the fulfillment of specific application requirements. Field results demonstrate the prediction capability of the proposed method, and it is of great value in many satellitebased railway applications as train control systems.

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    Cross-line Scheduling Problem for Inter-city Bus Lines
    HU Bao-yu, FENG Shu-min
    2016, 16(4): 125-130. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1653KB) ( )  

    To improve the operational efficiency of inter-city bus lines, cross-line scheduling is studied for operational vehicles belonged to different lines. From the perspective of system, the feasibility of cross-line scheduling is analyzed. Deficit function is constructed for each depot to maximally cut operating fleet size on inter-city bus lines by cross-line scheduling between different depots in the same city and scheduling within the same depot for different lines. Thereby, operating costs of transport enterprise are saved. Intercity bus lines between City Y and Z are cross- line scheduled to optimize the number of operational vehicles. Results show that the minimum fleet size is 38 vehicles keeping the lines operating normally, and only 32 vehicles are required after scheduling optimization. It can effectively improve the utilization of operational vehicles and minimize operating costs.

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    A New Class of Two Layers Public Traffic Coupled Network Model
    DUWen-ju, LI Yin-zhen, AN Xin-lei, MAChang-Xi
    2016, 16(4): 131-138. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1427KB) ( )  

    In order to study the dynamic characteristics of urban public traffic network,this paper establishes the transfer network and bus lines network by respectively using the method of space P and space R based on the existing public traffic network model. Then regard these two networks as the sub-network,a new two layers public traffic coupled network is presented through the connection between the bus stops and bus lines,and this model can well reflect the connection between the passengers and bus operating vehicles. Based on the synchronization theory of coupling network and taking“Lorenz system”as the network node, the paper studies the ynchronization of two layers public traffic coupled network. Finally,numerical results are given to show the impact of public traffic dispatching,the number of common bus stops between bus lines and the accessibility between bus stops to the two layers public traffic coupled network balance through Matlab simulation.

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    Evacuation Network Optimization Based on Crossing Conflict Elimination
    ZHAO Xing, FENG Zhao-yan, ZHANG Xiao-li, LI Hong-wei
    2016, 16(4): 139-145. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1455KB) ( )  

    Aimed at the problem of evacuation delay at intersections under emergency, this paper constructs the two-layer optimization model for evacuation network based on crossing conflict elimination. The model takes a shortest total evacuation time as the objective to set the turning movement of each lane in the toplevel, and the route is allocated based on the Stochastic User Equilibrium principle in the lower- level. A combined algorithm with the genetic algorithm and MSA is designed to solve the model to realize the integrated optimization of evacuation traffic organization and route planning. Based on a simple experiment, this paper verifies the convergence and validity of the model, the calculation result of the experiment shows that the proposed model can solve the evacuation network optimization problem with crossing conflict elimination, and the algorithm designed in this paper has a fast convergence rate, while based on the actual case, it shows that by prohibiting parts of turning directions at intersection to eliminate crossing conflicts, the rest turning directions traffic flow could be uninterrupted, thus the evacuation efficiency could be improved.

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    Optimization of Signage System Configuration on Metro Platform Based on Cooperative Guidance
    ZHANG Zhe, JIA Li-min, QIN Yong
    2016, 16(4): 146-152. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1986KB) ( )  

    The smooth exit and transfer process of passengers flow on platform depends on the excellent guidance service provided by the signage system. This paper investigates the optimization method of the guidance signage system on metro platform. According to the service characteristic of guidance signage, we propose a calculation method of service efficacy and present a piece-wise probability function to explain the process of receiving the guidance service considering the interaction principle between passengers and guidance signage. Then the optimization model of guidance signage system configuration is proposed to realize the maximum service efficacy, and the simplified model is proved to be the cooperative covering location problem, which can be solved by the heuristic algorithm. At last, the proposed model is applied in the configuration optimization of exit guidance signage system on platform, the service efficacy of signage system increases by 32.5% and the coverage area increases by 39.16%. The calculation results show that the model can improve the whole guidance service efficacy of the guidance signage system and more passengers can receive the guidance service.

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    The Planning Method of Regional Parking Based on Railway Transit Park-and-ride
    CAO Yi, YANG Zhong-zhen, ZUO Zhong-yi
    2016, 16(4): 153-158. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1724KB) ( )  

    In order to satisfy the growing parking demand in urban and relieve traffic pressure in downtown, under the condition of railway transit park-and-ride(P&R), the methods of site selection and scale calculation of regional parking facilities are studied. Based on the principle of random user selection, the Logit models of parking demand forecasting both in downtown and peripheral zones are constructed. Using the minimum total travelling distance as objective function, the site selection optimization model of P&R station is constructed. The calculation methods of parking scale both in downtown and at P&R station are also processed. Selecting Xi’an Road business circle in Dalian as study object, both parking demand survey and parking characteristic analysis are conducted. According to the survey data, not only the site of P&R station is planed, but also the scale of regional parking facility is calculated. The research indicates that, for urban with railway transit, this method is more beneficial to lead parking demand to distribute more reasonably on land space, compared with the traditional planning method.

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    Model and Algorithm for Railway Passenger Crew Rostering Plan
    YANG Guo-yuan, SHI Tian-yun, ZHANG Qiu-liang
    2016, 16(4): 159-164. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1295KB) ( )  

    For the question of the crew rostering planning of railway passenger transport department, it is analyzed the relationship of the trains, train routes, crews, and crew working hours. On the premise of known the standard monthly crew working hours, a crew rostering plan model is built for railway passenger transport department. The model is based on the constraints of train routes and crew working hours. The optimization objective of the model is to reduce crew team and crew cost. According to the train connection relationship between arriving station and departing station and between arriving time and departing time, the feasible paths set of matching trains and train routes of meeting crew working hours is solved. Based on this set, the solving model is proposed and the solving algorithm based on genetic algorithm is designed in this paper. By analyzing and stimulating an example of trains and crew teams of a passenger department, it shows that the proposed model and designed algorithm can effectively solve the problem of passenger transport crew rostering planning and reduce crew cost.

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    Spatial Propagating Study of Urban Traffic Congestion Based on Current Event Recognition
    WEIWei, MAO Bao-hua, CHEN Shao-kuan, XU De-jie
    2016, 16(4): 165-170. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1414KB) ( )  

    Research on spatial propagation rules of sudden congestion is a significant foundation of traffic management, control and route guidance. In this paper, traffic data in field is used as study object. After the recognition of long term trend and current event, an improved SDM (Spatial Durbin Model) of current event is proposed, on the base of which a traffic congestion propagation analysis method is also derived. Effectiveness verification of the proposed method is embodied in the case studies of the road network of Beijing. The case studies imply that, after removing the influence of long term trend, the proposed SDM of current event can reflect the space propagation structure of traffic event more accurately. While the spatial influence of traffic event reach the maximum in road networks with the average density of 22 pcu/km(14:00). Therefore, closer supervision and control against the key nodes and critical-density status of road network is needed.

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    A Safety Degree Model of Pedestrian No-signal Crossing Walk Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
    XIANG Hong-yan, ZHANG Qing-quan, FANWen-bo
    2016, 16(4): 171-177. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1993KB) ( )  

    Basing on the analysis of the vehicle-pedestrian relationship on no- signal control road section, this paper illustrates pedestrian cross characters and behavior, and a probabilistic method is present to describe pedestrian risk level. The pedestrian’s crossing time, accessible gap, desire waiting time are discussed, the desire waiting time distribution is depicted using lognormal distribution. Then, a crossing safety degree model on the base of Monte Carlo is put forward to calculate the pedestrian probability that could safely crossing road with in their desire waiting time. Finally, through data grouping and simulation, the pedestrian safety degree is compared under different road and traffic conditions which related to vehicle volume, pedestrian volume, lanes, two-step crossing, the trend of safety is also analyzed. The result shows that, the main factor for pedestrian crossing safety is vehicle volume, number of lanes, and the two- step crossing. These three factors should be considered when organizing pedestrian crossing facilities.

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    Gaussian Mixture Model for Urban Link Travel Time Analysis
    LI Rui-min, QIAN Xiao-dong, WU Hong-bin
    2016, 16(4): 178-184. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1477KB) ( )  

    Travel time of urban roads is an important parameter for urban road transportation system. Based on the travel time data for signalized arterials derived from the matching of the vehicle license plate number identified from the license plate recognition system, this paper investigates the distribution estimation method for urban road travel time using Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and compares the difference of GMM, Normal, Log Normal and Weibull distributions and analyses the influence of the number of normal distribution in GMM on fitting performance of GMM. The result shows that for the data used in this study, the GMM can fit the signalized arterial link travel time distribution properly. Furthermore, the proper number of normal distribution in GMM is suggested to be 2 or 3 and more normal distributions in GMM don’t have substantial influence on travel time distribution fitting. This paper can provide sufficient support for the travel time reliability study for urban signalized arterials and others.

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    Prediction of Short-term Traffic Flow Based on Ensemble Learning Mechanism
    XU Jian-feng, TANG Tao, YAN Jun-feng, LIU Zhen
    2016, 16(4): 185-190. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1362KB) ( )  

    Short- term traffic flow prediction is an important issue of traffic-oriented big data application. Traditionally, traffic flow prediction is determined by the local recordings, whereas the natural relations of adjacent roads are neglected. Based on the characteristic of downtown traffic flow, a multi-dimensional data model concerning relevant roads is proposed. Meanwhile, a multi- machine learning competing strategy is developed. The essence of proposed prediction strategy is training commonly used machine learning algorithms independently with the clustered temporal information as input. By selecting high prediction performance as dominating weak classifier, the weight is further assigned to corresponding algorithm so that a strong classifier is eventually developed. As a result, the traffic flow prediction problem is converted to a weighted multi- machine learning problem. Experiments on downtown streets of Nanchang show that the superiority of proposed method as compared to traditional single time series based solutions.

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    Prediction Model of ETC Short Term Traffic Flow Based on Multidimensional Time Series
    ZHAO Ya-wei, CHEN Yan-jing, GUANWei
    2016, 16(4): 191-198. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1734KB) ( )  

    ETC short term traffic flow prediction is one of the fundamental processes in ETC management. The precise prediction of traffic flow provides instructions for transportation hub management solution planning and ETC lane construction. At present, some of studies are proposed in forecasting short term traffic flow. However, most studies of model presentation are in the form of mathematical expressions, and it is difficult to describe the trend accurately. Therefore, an ETC short term traffic flow prediction model based on multidimensional time series is proposed, which takes the effect of external factors like holiday, the free of highway and weather etc. into consideration. Moreover, considering the fact of the traffic restrictions based on the last digit of license plate numbers somewhere, the day of week factor is considered in this prediction model. The traffic flow data of highway ETC lane somewhere is used for prediction. The prediction results indicate that the total average absolute relative error is 8.10%. The accuracy suggests its advantage in traffic flow prediction and on site application.

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    Case-based Urban Road Travel Time Prediction
    XU Xian-rui, PENG Zhong-ren
    2016, 16(4): 199-205. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1598KB) ( )  

    Most existing travel time prediction methods focus on road segment forecasting for highways, urban expressways and trunk roads, while researches on path travel time prediction for route of urban common roads are relatively few. This paper proposes a case-based travel time prediction method. Based on trajectory data modeling, rich history travel paths with more attributes form into dynamic sample cases database, and a matching case are searched from the case database according to the travel time and environmental information. Finally, certain amendments are made to predict travel time. Experimental results show that the algorithm is weakly influenced by the impact of space network and data difference and can have a strong robustness and portability; in addition, the algorithm shows suitability to low trajectory data coverage, few trajectory data sample cases, as well as time accuracy and reliability, compared with the referenced existing road segment travel time prediction method.

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    Parking Pricing Model for Private Car Based on Understanding Expectation Utility
    DING Hai-ying, MAFei,ZHANG Zhao-fen
    2016, 16(4): 206-210. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1249KB) ( )  

    Determining the rate of parking fee reasonably is an important way to control the rate of private car travel and optimize the urban traffic structure. From the perspective of traveler's utility of private car, considering the understanding expectation utility and transportation mode choice, using the Logit model of transportation mode share and satisfactory rate function of private car travelers to establish the pricing model, through which parking fees can be accepted by travelers and can inhibit the private car travel maximally, which can provide basis for pricing reasonably. In order to verify the reliability of the model, take Xi’an city as an example to calculate the reasonable parking price. The studies indicate that, threshold of the parking price rate determined by the model is the optimal rate of private car travel, when the parking price is 15 yuan per hour, the maximum expectation utility of private car travelers is almost constant, and the regulation effects of parking price is the best.

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    Aircraft Stands Pre-assignment Based on Passenger Traffic Characteristics and Cross Entropy
    WANG Yong-liang,WANG Chun-feng
    2016, 16(4): 211-216. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1308KB) ( )  

    Passenger traffic characteristics are applied to aircraft stands pre-assignment research in which cross entropy algorithm is taken. In order to improve the satisfaction of passengers, aircraft stands preassignment optimization model is proposed to minimize passenger walking time reflecting passenger traffic characteristics, and cross entropy algorithm is designed to solve the model. The numerical example shows that aircraft stand five is pre- assigned three flights, walking time of non- transfer, transfer and all the passenger are decreased by 5%, 19% and 12% separately compared with the other reference; cross entropy algorithm rapidly converges after 10 iterations; and the aircraft stands pre-assignment model proposed and cross entropy algorithm designed are feasible and reliable.

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    Simulation Optimization of Consolidation and Configuration in Container Terminals Based on Cooperative Appointment
    SHAO Qian-qian, JIN Zhi-hong, XING Lei
    2016, 16(4): 217-224. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2102KB) ( )  

    The randomness implicit in arrival time of external trucks at container terminals leads to the uneven distribution of retrieving and delivery operations. The problem causes that mechanical equipment of the terminal can hardly balance the peak working. Based on the analysis of different operation status of external trucks, a linear simulation mathematical model with time residual matrix as the core is developed. The cooperative appointment is formulated in the base of the simulation model, in which the appointment process of external trucks are equal to the cooperative selection process of truck drivers considered the simulation feedback. Comparing with traditional appointment and equal quota appointment through a series of large- scale experiments under different circumstances, the results demonstrates the effectiveness and robust of cooperative appointment on balancing the peak working and decreasing the turn time of external trucks.

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    The Impact of High-speed Railway on the Spatial Pattern of Regional Tourism Transport Accessibility
    CHEN Fang, LI Jun-fang, JI Xiao-feng
    2016, 16(4): 225-230. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1955KB) ( )  

    Tourist transport accessibility analysis can provide theoretical basis for regional tourism transport planning. The operating of the high-speed railway will directly change the accessibility pattern of the regional tourist transport. In this paper, the weighted average travel time is used as evaluating index in node urban transport accessibility, and the ArcGIS visualization platform is used to analyze the spatial pattern of tourism transport accessibility. Then the evolution characteristics of tourism transport accessibility in Yunnan Province are obtained before and after the high-speed railway operating. On this basis, the sensitivity analysis of the weight of highway, railway, aviation and high- speed railway, to identify the sensitivity of tourism traffic accessibility to the weight of all kinds of traffic mode. The conclusions show that: The accessibility level of the high-speed railway travel to Yunnan Province is greatly improved, and the spacetime convergence effect of the tourism transport accessibility is obvious, outside the city to Kunming tourism traffic accessibility of railway weight greater sensitivity; After the operating of high- speed rail of Yunnan Province, the overall pattern of tourism transport accessibility to Kunming as the center to the periphery of the periphery of the "core- periphery" model; Before and after the high- speed railway operating, the variations of tourism transport accessibility is small in Yunnan Province, but overall differences between regions is narrowing, high speed railway passing through the city of tourism traffic on the high speed railway weight sensitivity.

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    Index System of Traffic Congestion Evaluation in Beijing Based on Big Data
    WANG Yan-ying, HANG Yu
    2016, 16(4): 231-240. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (3151KB) ( )  

    The measurement index of traffic congestion is used to describe the phenomena and potential rules of congestion for the entire network or specific areas. The existing methods can measure traffic congestion from several single aspects. However, they cannot demonstrate the full- spectrum congestion condition of the entire network, and also cannot capture the dynamic traffic characteristics. This paper proposes the index system of traffic congestion measurement accord with the character of Beijing by introducing the advanced foreign traffic congestion index. Based on the each loop road detector data in 2011 and 2012, the indices of the traffic congestion measurement of the each Ring-Road in Beijing is calculated and analyzed to obtain the potential regularity of Beijing road network traffic congestion.

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    Empirical Analysis of Demand-price Elasticity for Urban Public Transit in Multimodal Transport System
    CHEN Bo-yang, JIANG Ming-qing, SI Bing-feng, YANG Xiao-bao
    2016, 16(4): 241-247. 
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1707KB) ( )  

    User equilibrium theory is used for modeling transportation demand in urban multimodal network. A mathematical optimization model is constructed to meet user equilibrium condition for such system while considering the competitive relationship between different modes. It is also proved that the optimal solution satisfies the logit based mode- split. Based on the economic concept of demand- price elasticity, the derivative of transport demands of different modes with public transit fares is found by using the sensitivity analysis, and then the demand-price elasticity of public transit is obtained. According to SP survey and operational data of certain city, the demand-price elasticity of public transit as well as the cross elasticities between different modes are all calculated. Simultaneously, the variations of the demand- price elasticity are analyzed under different conditions of demands and pricings.

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