Abstract:

Human reliability, on one hand, is influenced by the risk level in the stage of risk mitigation; on the other hand, is affected by the influencing factors in the stages of emergency response. Therefore, in order to make comprehensive assessment on human reliability, the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and belief degree are introduced in human reliability quantification from the perspective of both risk mitigation and emergency response. First, the evaluation criteria for risk factors and risk priority number is established by using triangular fuzzy numbers, and the risk factors are integrated by using evidential reasoning method, from which the risk priority number is obtained. Second, human factors interaction model is introduced to quantify all the influencing factors of human reliability. Moreover, the checklists of human factors are established, and the model for human reliability assessment is developed by using belief degree. Finally, a typical sinking accident is selected to verify the proposed model. The result demonstrates that the proposed method can make a comprehensive assessment on human reliability.

Key words: waterway transportation, human reliability, evidential reasoning, maritime accidents, quantitative assessment

摘要：

水上交通事故人因可靠性，一方面在风险预防阶段会受到风险水平的影响；另 一方面，在险情发展及应对过程中会存在与外部影响因素的相互作用.因此，为全面评价 水上交通事故人因可靠性，从风险预防和险情应对这两个角度，提出了基于风险系数和 置信度的人因可靠性的定量评价方法.首先，利用三角模糊数分别建立了各风险要素和风 险系数的评价标准，并应用证据理论对这3 个风险要素进行融合，获取了该险情的风险系 数.其次，引用人因交互模型全面分析了人因可靠性的影响因素，建立了人因可靠性检查 表，并利用置信度建立了各影响因素定量评价模型.最后，选取了一起典型沉船事故为案 例定量评价了人因可靠性，结果表明，本文提出的方法可以更为全面地分析人因可靠性.

关键词: 水路运输, 人因可靠性, 证据理论, 水上交通事故, 定量评价