关键词: 综合运输, 综合货运规划模型, 土地利用-交通整体规划建模, 多货品货物运输, 超级网络, 区域整体规划

Abstract: With an accelerated regional development and integration in China, an increasing number of regions have begun to consider how to coordinate the development of economy, land/space, transportation, and environment toward a sustainable development through an integrated modeling/planning process. With this, this study proposes a methodology for designing and developing a large-scale, integrated, multi-commodity, multimodal freight transportation model, through systematically considering various interactions between economy, land/space, transportation, and environment of a region. First, the structure of the model is developed by creating an Aggregate Economic Flows (AEFs) table embedded in the PECAS (Production, Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)modeling framework primarily based on the majority of types of goods transported by the three modes (waterway, railway and highway) and corresponding producing industries or sectors, with a target to provide a full economic representation for regional freight demand analysis. With such a representation, the producers, consumers, exchanged commodities, the categories of land and space and the transportation modes are fully represented and their interactive relationships are quantitatively represented. Next, the four individual modules of the model are developed, including a Economic and Demographic (ED) module, an Activity Allocation (AA) module, a Space Development (SD) module, and a multimodal Transportation Systems (TS) module, which predicts and simulates the total of socio-economic activities (by sector), allocates the total activites into different land use zones (LUZs) or traffic analysis zones (TAZs), simulates land/space development over the zones and estimates corresponding freight demand to be transportated between those zones over a multimodal supernetwork (consisting of the above three networks and connecting/transfer links), respectively. Given the constraints based on the socio-economic development target, land/space available, level of supply of transportation infrastructure and environmental capacity in the regional development, the designed modeling approach can achieve a much more objective simulation of temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of socioeconomic activites, the interactions between them, the corresponding freight demand and multi-commodity flows over the multimodal transportation network, which may provide a good decision support capacity for an integrated planning of regional allocation of socioeconomic activities, and a land use and transportation system with a high level of service. The proposed modelling method is applied to the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and an integrated, multi-commodity, multimodal freight transportation model of the region is developed as a case study. The activity totals, land use/space patterns and corresponding freight demand and multimodal transportation systems are modelled from the year 2015 to 2035. The modeling results clearly show that the goodness of fit of the predicted annual average daily tonnage is higher than 85%, and the errors of mode share between predicted and observed values are less than 1%, which proves that the proposed modeling method is accurate and practical for policy analysis at regional scale.

Key words: integrated transportation, multi-modal freight models, integrated land use-transportation modeling (ILUTM), multi-commodity, supernetwork, regional integrated planning