基于整体规划建模的城市交通基础设施广义经济效益评估方法

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.04.001

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2025, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (4): 1-12.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.04.001

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 下一篇

基于整体规划建模的城市交通基础设施广义经济效益评估方法

王万乐¹ ，钟鸣^*2 ，HUNT John douglas³

1. 中国民航大学，空中交通管理学院，天津300300；2.武汉理工大学，智能交通系统(ITS)研究中心，武汉430063； 3. 卡尔加里大学，土木工程系，卡尔加里T2N1N4，加拿大

收稿日期:2025-04-21 修回日期:2025-06-04 接受日期:2025-06-11 出版日期:2025-08-25 发布日期:2025-08-25
作者简介:王万乐(1981—)，女，湖北应城人，讲师，博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(52172309)。

Methods for Assessing Wider Economic Benefits of Urban Transportation Infrastructure Based on Integrated Modeling

WANG Wanle¹, ZHONG Ming^*2, HUNT John douglas³

1. College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China; 2. Intelligent Transport System (ITS) Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China; 3. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary T2N 1N4, Canada

Received:2025-04-21 Revised:2025-06-04 Accepted:2025-06-11 Online:2025-08-25 Published:2025-08-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (52172309)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 交通基础设施对城市经济发展具有强大的推动作用，尤其是大型交通基础设施的建设，对土地利用和空间形态产生重大影响。针对城市交通基础设施广义经济效益评估分析需求，本文提出基于城市经济土地利用-交通整体规划(Urban-Integrated Economy, Land Use, and Transport, U-IELUT)建模的交通基础设施广义经济效益评估框架和方法。在传统“四阶段”交通规划模型的基础上，加入城市经济和人口预测、社会经济活动空间分配、城市空间开发，以及交通基础设施广义经济效益评估模块，构建面向交通基础设施广义经济效益评估的“PECAS+(Production,Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)”广义经济效益评估模型。以武汉地铁2号线为例，基于武汉“PECAS+”广义经济效益评估模型测算其直接经济效益和广义经济效益。结果表明，地铁2号线在2027年的直接经济效益约为10.43亿元；广义经济效益中，动态集聚效益约为2.64亿元，约为直接经济效益的25.3%，说明广义经济效益尤其是集聚效益等带来的经济效益不可忽略。同时，还探明交通基础设施建设对不同小区的影响差异，即广义经济效益的空间分布，可为交通基础设施投资建设提供多维度决策支持。

关键词: 交通运输经济, 交通基础设施经济效益评估, 经济-土地利用-交通整体规划模型, 广义经济效益, 直接经济效益

Abstract: Transportation infrastructure has a strong driving effect on urban economic development. In particular, the construction of large-scale transportation infrastructure can have a significant impact on land use and spatial form. In response to the need for a comprehensive assessment of the economic benefits of urban transportation infrastructure, this study proposes a framework and method for assessing the Wider Economic Benefits (WEBs) of transportation infrastructure based on the Urban-Integrated Economy, Land Use, and Transport (U-IELUT) modeling. This study extends the traditional "Four-Step" transportation planning model to a "PECAS+(Production, Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)" WEBs assessment model by linking it with an economic and population forecasting, a socio-economic activities allocation, a space development, and a wider economic benefits assessment module. The WEBs assessment model is designed to evaluate both the direct economic benefits and the wider economic benefits, mainly the agglomeration benefits, of urban transportation infrastructure. Taking Wuhan Metro Line 2 as an example, the direct and wider economic benefits were assessed using the "PECAS+" wider economic benefits assessment model. The findings indicate that the direct economic benefits of the Metro Line 2 in 2027 are approximately 1.043 billion yuan. The dynamic agglomeration benefits are about 264 million yuan, which is approximately 25.3% of the direct economic benefits. This demonstrates that the wider economic benefits, especially the agglomeration benefits, should not be overlooked in the economic benefits assessment of transportation infrastructure. Meanwhile, it is also possible to ascertain the impact differences of transportation infrastructure construction on various zones of the study area, that is, the spatial distribution of wider economic benefits, which can provide multidimensional decision-making support for the investment and construction of transportation infrastructure.

Key words: transportation economy, transportation infrastructure economic benefits assessment, integrated economy, land use and transport model, wider economic benefits, direct economic benefits

中图分类号:

王万乐, 钟鸣, HUNT John douglas. 基于整体规划建模的城市交通基础设施广义经济效益评估方法[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2025, 25(4): 1-12.

WANG Wanle, ZHONG Ming, HUNT John douglas. Methods for Assessing Wider Economic Benefits of Urban Transportation Infrastructure Based on Integrated Modeling[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2025, 25(4): 1-12.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2025.04.001

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2025/V25/I4/1

参考文献

[1] LAKSHMANAN T R. The broader economic consequences of transport infrastructure investments[J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 2011, 19: 1-12.

[2]彭宏勤,张国伍.交通外在经济效益的理论、方法与实践兼论“一带一路”:“交通7+1论坛”第四十八次会议纪实[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息,2017,17(5): 1-8. [PENG H Q, ZHANG G W. Theory, method and practice of external economy benefit of traffic and the belt and road[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2017, 17(5): 1-8.]

[3]World Bank Office Beijing. Regional impacts of high speed rail in China[R]. Beijing: World Bank Office Beijing, 2013.

[4]Department for Transport(DfT). Transport analysis guidance(TAG) unit A2.1 wider impacts[Z]. UK: Department for Transport (DfT), 2018.

[5]张莹.交通基础设施对经济集聚的作用研究[D].成都: 西南财经大学,2020. [ZHANG Y. A research about the effect of transportation infrastructure on economic agglomeration[D]. Chengdu: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 2020.]

[6]王睿哲.交通基础设施对全要素生产率的影响机制研究[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2021. [WANG R Z. A study on the influencing mechanisms of transportation infrastructure on total factor productivity[D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2021.]

[7]GRAHAM D J. Wider economic benefits of transport improvements: Link between agglomeration and productivity[R]. London: Imperial College of London, Centre for Transport Studies, 2006.

[8] MELO P C, GRANHAM D J, LEVINSON D, et al. Agglomeration, accessibility and productivity: Evidence for large metropolitan areas in the US[J]. Urban Studies, 2017, 54(1): 179-195.

[9] Department for Transport(DfT). Transport analysis guidance(TAG) unit A5.3 supplementary economic modelling[Z]. UK: Department for Transport (DfT), 2018.

[10] 徐淑贤, 刘天亮,王婷,等.空间一般均衡视角下的城市交通管理研究:现状与趋势[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2023, 23(3): 6-19. [XU S X, LIU T L, WANG T, et al. Urban transportation management from perspective of general spatial equilibrium: review and trend[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2023, 23(3): 6-19.]

[11] CHEN Z, LI X. Economic impact of transportation infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road initiative[J]. Asia Europe Journal, 2021, 19: 131-159.

[12] SIMPSON T, BOSREDON M, DOBSON A, et al. Illustrating recent variations in land-use transport interaction (LUTI) modeling methodologies [C]. Nottingham, UK: Paper Presented at the Annual Transport Practitioners' Meeting, 2016.

[13] WANGSNESS P B, RODSETH K L, HANSEN W. A review of guidelines for including wider economic impacts in transport appraisal[J]. Transport Reviews, 2017, 37(1): 94-115.

[14] ABRAHAM J E, HUNT J D. Random utility simulation of spatial economics[R]. Calgary, Canada: Institute for Advanced Policy Research (IAPR) Technical Paper Series, 2007.

[15] LEGASPI J, HENSHER D, WANG B. Estimating the wider economic benefits of transport investments: The case of the Sydney north west rail link project[J]. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 2015, 3: 182-195.

基于整体规划建模的城市交通基础设施广义经济效益评估方法

Methods for Assessing Wider Economic Benefits of Urban Transportation Infrastructure Based on Integrated Modeling

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

[1]	冯琳, 蔡江浪, 贾鹏. 双积分政策下新能源汽车异质制造商竞争演变分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(6): 30-46.
[2]	刘斌, 马超凡, 田志强, 李鑫杰. 考虑旅客出行特征的高铁灵活车票设置方法研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(6): 242-253.
[3]	悦国勇, 胡昊. 米字形高铁网对区域社会经济高质量发展的影响[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(5): 24-36.
[4]	段莉珍, 何明卫, 何民, 普荣慧. 高速公路货车空车差异化费率优化的双层规划方法[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(5): 197-204.
[5]	刘昭然, 诸立超. 中国省级层面货运结构调整的碳减排贡献[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(2): 24-33.
[6]	金嘉晨, 殷明. 全国港航科技创新网络结构特征及演化[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(1): 24-34.
[7]	苗婷婷, 黄海军. 双城系统的聚集外部性、拥堵外部性和最优收费[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(1): 46-54.
[8]	姚志刚, 王淑洁, 龚林伟. 基于基尼系数分解的城乡公共交通不平等测度：以浙江省海宁市为例[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(1): 282-289.
[9]	邬岚, 陆豪冬, 尹超英, 成迎吉, 任斯奇. 基于货运量及能源强度影响的长三角地区货运碳排放研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2023, 23(6): 1-10.
[10]	申嘉琪, 刘浩, 张戎. 公路商品车运价测算及考虑燃油价格变动的铁路竞争力分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2023, 23(4): 47-54.
[11]	徐淑贤, 刘天亮, 王婷, 综凯, 黄海军, 马寿峰. 空间一般均衡视角下的城市交通管理研究：现状与趋势[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2023, 23(3): 6-19.
[12]	刘浩, 申嘉琪, 张戎, 吴昊天, 张卓玮. 货运价格转换及基于揭示偏好数据的公铁竞争模型[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2023, 23(3): 85-93.
[13]	樊东方, 靳志宏. 中美物流成本评价指标的影响因素分析及分解研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2023, 23(2): 32-39.
[14]	诸立超, 刘昭然, 汪瑞琪, 熊强. 中国货运结构优化的碳减排效应测度[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2022, 22(6): 309-315.
[15]	杨星琪, 黄海军. 高铁对城市经济空间结构影响的研究综述[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2022, 22(5): 7-18.