交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2003, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (2): 51-56 .

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

重力模型标定方法及应用研究

褚琴，陈绍宽   

  1. 北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京 100044
  • 收稿日期:2002-11-18 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2003-05-01 发布日期:2003-05-01

On Calibration of the Gravity Model During Traffic Forecast

CHU Qin, CHEN Shao-kuan   

  1. School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2002-11-18 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2003-05-01 Published:2003-05-01

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被引次数

125

摘要： 介绍了重力模型的各种不同形式的标定和检验方法，标定方法有最小二乘法、试算法及其该进方法，检验方法包括t检验法和相对差的检验。通过具体的算例，比较分析了它们不同的计算过程和结果，从而得出各类重力模型的标定和检验方法的特点。据此得出在我国的现有情况下的适用性。

关键词: 重力模型, 标定, 检验

Abstract: Gravity model has been widely used in traffic forecast due to its simple framework and maneuverability. Generally, a calibration process is necessary before any gravity model is to be applied in practice. This paper reviews the calibration methods of gravity models, such as the least-square regression and trial-and-trial method, and their tests such as the T-test. Through case studies with various methods, the author identifies the differeces among calibration methods and their applicability as well. Based on analysis to the traffic situation of China and the characteristics of the models, the paper advances some measurements for their improvements in practice and finally concludes the application of the gravity model.

Key words: gravity model, calibration, test