交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2004, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (1): 18-22 .

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于遗传算法的智能交通运量预测方法

李学伟，张江   

  1. 北京交通大学经管学院， 北京100044
  • 收稿日期:2003-11-19 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2004-02-01 发布日期:2004-02-01

Intelligent Economic Forecast Method Based On Genetic Algorithm

LI Xue-w ei ，MANG Jiang   

  1. Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044，China
  • Received:2003-11-19 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2004-02-01 Published:2004-02-01

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被引次数

15

摘要： 把遗传算法应用到智能经济预测的模型选择问题中.首先，通过对已有的模型库中的模型进行编码得到遗传操作的种群，然后通过变异、交叉操作产生新的模型或者模型的组合，接着运用生成的模型进行自适应调节、学习从而得到模型的评价，用该评价作为个体的适应度进行选择操作.得到了较好的预测模型进行数据的预测.最后，文章结合我国客运量预测的实例进行了分析.

关键词: 遗传算法, 智能预测模型, 数据预测

Abstract: This paper gives some discussions on genetic algorithm that are applied to the problem of the model choice of intelligent economic forecast. First，the model in the model base is coded to the population of the genetic operations. Second, new models or combinations of them are created by cross and mutation operation. Furthermore，the generated models will be self一adaptive and selflearning. They can be scored by some evaluations that are regarded as the individual fitness to be the choice operation of the genetic algorithm. Finally, a better model of forecast is produced to forecast
the data. As an example，the forecast analysis of the passenger transport of China is stated in the end of the paper.

Key words: genetic algorithm, intelligent forecast model, data forecast