交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2006, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (2): 8-13 .

• 智能交通系统与信息技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

ITS 投资项目决策中费用效益和不确定性分析

胡明伟   

  1. 深圳大学建筑与土木工程学院交通工程系，深圳518060
  • 收稿日期:2005-12-31 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2006-04-20 发布日期:2006-04-20

Cost Benefit and Uncertainty Analysis for ITS Investment Decisions

HU Ming-wei   

  1. Department of Transportation Engineering，College of Architecture and Civil Engineering，Shenzhen University，Shenzhen 518060，China
  • Received:2005-12-31 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2006-04-20 Published:2006-04-20

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被引次数

4

摘要： 通过对ITS 投资项目的费用效益分析的系统研究，提出了建立ITS 投资项目费用效益分析的框架和技术流程的具体步骤，阐述了评价指标的计算方法、方案的可行性评价和方案选优等内容，研究了费用和效益的划分和估计方法. 另外，本文提出了不确定性分析的概念和方法，并对敏感性分析和概率分析进行了重点研究. 结合IDAS 软件，通过示例论述了上述方法的技术实现.

关键词: 智能交通系统, 费用效益分析, 不确定性分析, 费用, 效益

Abstract: The framework and processes of cost benefit analysis for intelligent transportation systems（ITS）investment project are established. The evaluation criteria computation，feasibility evaluation and the optimal scheme selection are discussed. The classification and estimation methods of costs and benefits are expatiated. The concept and methods of uncertainty analysis are proposed，with emphasis on sensitivity analysis and probability analysis. The implementation of the above methods is illustrated through the case study.

Key words: intelligent transportation systems(ITS), cost benefit analysis, uncertainty analysis, cost, benefit