交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2006, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (4): 90-94 .

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国收费高速公路投资风险评估研究

王作功，贾元华，徐丽营   

  1. 北京交通大学 系统工程与控制研究所，北京100044
  • 收稿日期:2006-02-20 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2006-08-20 发布日期:2006-08-20

Study on Venture Evaluation of Toll Freeway Investment

WANG Zuo-gong, JIA Yuan-hua, XU Li-ying   

  1. Institute of Systems Engineering and control, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044，China
  • Received:2006-02-20 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2006-08-20 Published:2006-08-20

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被引次数

29

摘要： 针对我国收费高速公路风险评估中存在的问题，分析了我国高速公路投资风险的特点，在建立收费高速公路投资单风险估计模型和风险评估指标体系的基础上，综合运用层次分析方法和模糊综合评价方法，建立了高速公路投资风险的模糊综合评枯模型，并将该模型运用于京沈高速公路天津段等的风险评估，并进行了相应的比较。

关键词: 收费高速公路, 单风险估计模型, 模糊综合模型, 层次分析法, 投资风险评估

Abstract: Aiming at the problems in venture evaluation of toll expressway, we analyze the characters of the investment venture on the expressway in China. Basing on the standalone risk evaluation model of toll expressway investment and the index system of venture evaluation that we have built and using The Analytical Hierarchy Process and The Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Method, we built up a Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation model of expressway investment venture Then, it was applied to evaluate Tianjin section of the expressway connecting Beijing and Shenyang.，and make some comparisons.

Key words: toll expressway, standalone risk evaluation model, fuzzy synthetic model, the analytical hierarchy process method, venture evaluation