关键词: 风险控制, 危险货物罐车, 配置, 仿真模型, 系统动力学

Abstract: In order to recur and preview the dynamic relationship between the allocation of railway tank cars for dangerous goods and risk level, a simulation model of the optimization allocation of dangerous goods tank cars based on risk control is constructed using System Dynamics on the basis that the cost and risk of the system of dangerous goods transportation by railway tank cars are analyzed, and the multi-feedbacks among risk, cost, demand and other factors in the system are taken into account. Finally, an instance illustrates that the simulation result of the model can reveal the dynamic trends of every crucial variable in the system under different risk control level in data and graph, which proves that the model is useful at determining the risk control level of the system of dangerous goods transportation by railway tank cars and the project of arranging the dangerous goods tank cars.

Key words: risk control, dangerous goods tank car, allocation, simulation model, system dynamics