基于均值和标准差的高速公路行程时间可靠性预测

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2011, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (6): 74-84.

基于均值和标准差的高速公路行程时间可靠性预测

AREZOUMANDI Mahdi

密苏里科学技术大学土木建筑与环境工程学院, 罗拉 MO 654090440, 美国

收稿日期:2011-01-10 修回日期:2011-06-20 出版日期:2011-12-25 发布日期:2012-01-04
作者简介:AREZOUMANDI Mahdi (1977-)，男，博士生.

Estimation of Travel Time Reliability for Freeways Using Mean and Standard Deviation of Travel Time

AREZOUMANDI Mahdi

Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Missouri University of  Science and Technology, Rolla, MO 654090440, USA

Received:2011-01-10 Revised:2011-06-20 Online:2011-12-25 Published:2012-01-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在密苏里州圣路易斯市I-270/I-255州际公路上，可变限速标志实时控制高峰期车速以缓解拥堵.本文研究可变限速系统对行程时间分布和可靠性的影响,分析伽马分布、最大极值分布、log-logistic概率分布、对数正态分布及威布尔分布与24小时行程时间数据的拟合程度，得到后可变限速情形下行程时间的分布.结果表明，后可变限速情形下行程时间的分布服从对数正态分布.提出基于行程时间均值和标准差方法计算行程时间可靠性最关键指标之一——第95百分位数的行程时间基于I-270/I-255公路四个拥堵路段36个实测数据集，用参数和非参数统计验证了方法的有效性.

关键词: 公路运输；可变限速, 行程时间, 行程时间分布, 行程时间可靠性, 对数正态分布

Abstract: Variable speed limit (VSL) signs are in use across Interstate 255/270 (I-270/I-255) in St. Louis County, Missouri, varying the speed limit in real time during peak periods to reduce congestion. This paper evaluates the effects of the VSL system on travel time distribution and travel time reliability. Several distributions, including gamma, largest extreme value, log-logistic, log-normal, and Weibull, were fitted to the 24-hour travel time data to determine which provides the best fit for post-VSL conditions. Log-normal distribution provided the best. This paper also proposes a new method to estimate the 95th percentile of travel time, one of the most important factors for travel time reliability, using the mean and standard deviation of travel time. Parametric and nonparametric statistical tests were performed to validate this method using 36 field data sets from four congested segments of I-270/I-255.

Key words: highway trasportation, variable speed limit, travel time, travel time distribution, travel time reliability, lognormal distribution

中图分类号:

U491.112

AREZOUMANDI Mahdi. 基于均值和标准差的高速公路行程时间可靠性预测[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2011, 11(6): 74-84.

AREZOUMANDI Mahdi. Estimation of Travel Time Reliability for Freeways Using Mean and Standard Deviation of Travel Time[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2011, 11(6): 74-84.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18292.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2011/V11/I6/74

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