关键词: 城市交通, 购车意愿, 多元Logistic回归, 从众心理, 限购政策

Abstract:

Correctly and fully understand the car ownership intention of city residents has a great significance on guiding reasonable needs of private cars and then alleviating the pressure of the road traffic. Based on the survey data of urban residents, divide the car ownership intention into three levels, then considering conformity factor, using multinomial Logistic regression, analysis and comparison are carried out for the car ownership intention of residents in different city categories. The results show that overall factors of conformity and income have a significant impact on car ownership intention of residents, however, factors of age, gender and whether a subway is possible from home to working place have no significance impact. Through comparing cities with and without the policy curbing the purchase of private cars, it finds out that for residents' age from 24 to 45 years old, the curbing policy will stimulate the intention of buying a car in two years, it points out rather than mandatory measures, guiding strategy should be promoted by developing public transportation.

Key words: urban traffic, car ownership intention, multinomial Logistic regression, conformist mentality, curbing policy