交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2019, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): 227-232.

• 案例分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京市购车摇号阶梯概率规则优化研究

李涛*1，杨文银 1，王蕾 1，严海 2   

  1. 1. 交通运输部公路科学研究院，北京100088；2. 北京工业大学 城市交通学院，北京100124
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-22 修回日期:2019-03-21 出版日期:2019-08-25 发布日期:2019-08-26
  • 作者简介:李涛(1988-)，男，天津人，助理研究员，博士.
  • 基金资助:

    中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金/Fundamental Research Funds for Central Public-Interest Scientific Institution(Z2060302181109137).

Ladder Probability Rule Optimization of License-plate Lottery in Beijing

LI Tao1, YANG Wen-yin1, WANG Lei1, YAN Hai2   

  1. 1. Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100088, China; 2. College of Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
  • Received:2019-01-22 Revised:2019-03-21 Online:2019-08-25 Published:2019-08-26

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摘要：

由于机动车保有量增速过快，北京市于 2011年起实施摇号购车政策控制增速.为解决部分群体“久摇不中”的现象，2014年起实施“阶梯概率”规则，但效果并不显著.本文在分析北京市现行摇号规则的基础上，建立演化模型，用以描述不同群体的概率变化情况，分析现行 “阶梯概率”合理性，并提出改进的“阶梯概率”规则.通过分析发现：现行“阶梯概率”规则并不能持续提升较早参与摇号群体的中签概率，其原因主要在于概率提升程度不足；改进后的“阶梯概率”规则，在调整强度取值合理时，可使得所有群体的中签概率均随时间而增大，其缺点是降低了新参与摇号群体当期的中签概率.研究结论为管理者进行科学摇号提供理论支持.

关键词: 城市交通, 购车摇号, 演化模型, 阶梯概率, 调整强度

Abstract:

Due to the rapid growth of the number of vehicles, Beijing has implemented license- plate lottery policy to control the number of vehicles increasing since 2011. In order to solve the problem that some groups of people participated for a long time but never won the lottery, the "ladder probability" rule has been implemented since 2014. However, the effect is not significant. This paper establishes an evolutionary model to describe the probability change of different groups based on the analysis of the current license-plate lottery rule in Beijing. The rationality of the current "ladder probability" is analyzed, and the improved "ladder probability" rule is proposed. Through the analysis, it is found that the current "ladder probability" rule could not continuously improve the winning probability of earlier participants, the main reason is that the degree of probability improvement is insufficient. The improved "ladder probability" rule can increase the winning probability of all groups with time when the adjustment intensity is reasonable. The disadvantage of this rule is that it reduces the winning probability of new participants in the current period. The research conclusions provide theoretical support for managers to carry out scientific license-plate lottery policy.

Key words: urban traffic, license-plate lottery, evolution model, ladder probability, adjustment intensity

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