关键词: 综合运输, 碳排放, LEAP模型, 交通运输业, 情景模拟, 减排潜力

Abstract: Transportation is a crucial element of the global economy, but it is also a significant source of carbon emissions. This study focuses on carbon emissions in the transportation sector of Hunan province. With the base year set as 2021, three scenarios are established: reference scenario, low- carbon scenario, and enhanced low- carbon scenario. The LEAP (Long- Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) model is employed to analyze and predict carbon emissions in Hunan's transportation sector from 2022 to 2035. The results show that in the reference scenario, carbon emissions in Hunan's transportation sector will increase rapidly, reaching 57.25 million tons in 2035, with no peak appearing during the forecast period. In the low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, carbon emissions in Hunan's transportation sector are expected to reach their peak in 2033 and 2029, respectively, with peak amounts of about 44.81 million tons and 42.58 million tons. During the forecast period, energy consumption will only reach its peak under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, with a peak amount of 21.62 million tons of standard coal expected in 2030. It is recommended that Hunan province adopt strengthened energy-saving and emission reduction measures under the enhanced low-carbon scenario to promote the transportation sector's low-carbon sustainable development and achieve carbon peak as soon as possible. Finally, three main recommendations for green and low-carbon development in the transportation sector in Hunan Province are proposed based on emission reduction potential analysis: (1) It is recommended to adopt enhanced energy-saving and emission reduction measures under the enhanced low-carbon scenario to achieve carbon peaking as soon as possible. (2) The social vehicle sector is a key area for reducing emissions. It is recommended to promote new energy while constructing a clean power grid to maximize the benefits of emissions reduction. (3) Road freight transportation is an important focus for reducing emissions. Adjusting the transportation structure and reducing carbon emissions from heavy-duty trucks are the primary measures for reducing emissions from road freight transportation.

Key words: integrated transportation, carbon emission, LEAP model, transportation industry, simulated scenario, emission reduction potential