考虑空间效应的公交站点客流量影响因素分析

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2023.06.016

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2023, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (6): 153-164.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2023.06.016

考虑空间效应的公交站点客流量影响因素分析

王伊凡^{1, 2a}，陈学武^{* 2a, 2b, 2c}

1. 华设设计集团股份有限公司，南京 210014；2. 东南大学，a. 江苏省城市智能交通重点实验室， b. 现代城市交通技术江苏高校协同创新中心，c. 交通学院，南京 211189

收稿日期:2023-06-28 修回日期:2023-09-09 接受日期:2023-09-20 出版日期:2023-12-25 发布日期:2023-12-23
作者简介:王伊凡(1997- )，女，安徽蚌埠人，助理工程师。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(52172316)。

Bus Stop Ridership Impact Factors Analysis Considering Spatial Effects

WANG Yi-fan^{1, 2a},CHEN Xue-wu^{*2a, 2b, 2c}

1. China Design Group Co. Ltd, Nanjing 210014, China; 2a. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, 2b. Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, 2c. School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China

Received:2023-06-28 Revised:2023-09-09 Accepted:2023-09-20 Online:2023-12-25 Published:2023-12-23
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (52172316)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 探究公交客流量影响因素有利于针对性地进行公交规划管理，本文基于南京市多源数据，从站点层面分析公交客流量的影响因素，考虑空间依赖性和空间异质性两个角度的空间效应，构建空间杜宾模型和地理加权回归模型，揭示土地利用、交通基础设施、站点属性及社会经济因素在工作日早晚高峰两个时段对公交客流量的影响。研究结果表明：从全局角度来看，公交站点客流量间存在明显的空间依赖性，并具有聚集特征，空间杜宾模型优于多元回归模型、空间误差模型及空间滞后模型；各变量在早晚高峰时段对客流量的直接效应符合通勤规律；公共服务用地强度和公交站数量的空间溢出效应最为显著，且呈现出虹吸现象。从局部角度来看，各影响因素均具有显著的空间异质性，土地利用变量的空间差异性最大；车头时距与站点客流量负相关，影响程度以南京市玄武湖区域为中心向外递减；线路条数与站点客流量正相关，影响程度由老城区向外围区域递增。

关键词: 城市交通, 空间效应, 空间计量模型, 公交客流, 地理加权回归

Abstract: Investigating the impact factors of bus ridership is important to public transit planning and management. Using multi-source data from Nanjing city in China, this paper analyzes the impact factors of bus ridership at the bus stops. The study considers the spatial effects arising from both spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity, and develops a spatial Durbin model and a geographically weighted regression model. The study examines the impact of land use, transport infrastructure, stop attributes, and socio-economic factors on bus ridership during morning and evening peak hours during weekdays. The results indicate that, from a global perspective, there is a significant spatial dependence and aggregation feature among bus stop ridership. The spatial Durbin model outperforms multiple regression models, spatial error models, and spatial lag models. The direct effect of each variable on ridership during peak hours in the morning and evening follows the commuting law. The spatial spillover effect of public service land density and the number of bus stops is the most significant and exhibits a siphon effect. From a local perspective, each impact factor exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with land use variables displaying the largest variation. The headway is negatively correlated with bus stop ridership, and the influence degree decreases outward from the center of Xuanwu Lake in Nanjing city. The number of routes is positively correlated with bus ridership, and the degree of impact increases from the old urban area to the peripheral areas.

Key words: urban traffic, spatial effects, spatial econometric model, bus ridership, geographically weighted regression

中图分类号:

U121

王伊凡, 陈学武. 考虑空间效应的公交站点客流量影响因素分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2023, 23(6): 153-164.

WANG Yi-fan, CHEN Xue-wu. Bus Stop Ridership Impact Factors Analysis Considering Spatial Effects[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2023, 23(6): 153-164.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2023/V23/I6/153

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考虑空间效应的公交站点客流量影响因素分析

Bus Stop Ridership Impact Factors Analysis Considering Spatial Effects

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