我国交通运输业碳达峰时间预测

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2024.01.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 碳达峰战略背景下，交通运输业作为高碳排放行业面临一系列挑战。本文分析我国交通运输客货运碳排放现状。基于统计数据与相关研究成果，推算含私人小汽车的交通运输业碳排放量，并计算各交通方式的碳排放因子。借鉴部分发达国家经验，预测2019—2040年我国客货运周转量发展趋势。以2040年为目标年，设计未来交通结构和碳排放因子情景，研究我国交通运输业碳达峰时间和达峰值。结果表明：2020年，含私人小汽车的交通运输业碳排放量为11.1亿t。 2040年，我国旅客运输需求规模在8.2万亿~8.7万亿人公里，货物运输需求规模在27.3万亿~28.7万亿吨公里。最后，验证了单纯依赖交通结构改善难以实现2040年前碳达峰，还须结合交通清洁技术升级。情景分析表明，采取“公转铁”“公转水”等交通结构转型，公路运输清洁化等政策措施，交通运输业有望于2031—2034年实现碳达峰。

关键词: 综合运输, 碳达峰, 情景分析, 交通运输业, 碳排放因子

Abstract: Transportation industry faces a series of challenges under the strategy of "carbon peak" due to the high carbon emissions. This paper analyzes the current situation of the carbon emissions in passenger and freight transportation in China. Based on the statistical data and relevant research results, this study simulates the carbon emissions of the transportation industry including private cars. The carbon emission factors of each transportation mode are calculated. The trend of passenger and freight turnover in 2019 to 2040 is predicted based on the experience of some developed countries. Taking 2040 as the target year, the scenarios of future transportation structure and carbon emission factors were designed, and the time and value of carbon peak for transportation in China are estimated. The results show that the transportation carbon emission, including private cars, is 1.11 billion tons in 2020. It is predicted that the passenger transportation demand will be 8.2 to 8.7 trillion person-kilometers, and the freight transportation demand will be 27.3 to 28.7 trillion tonnage kilometers in 2040. It is verified that it would be difficult to achieve the carbon peak before 2040 only through improving the transportation structure, and it is also significantly important to promote the upgrading of clean transportation technology. The scenario analysis shows that the transportation industry is expected to achieve the carbon peak in 2031 to 2034 by encouraging the transformation of transportation structure such as "road to rail" and "road to water", and promoting the cleanliness of roadway transportation.

Key words: integrated transportation, carbon peak, scenario analysis, transportation industry, carbon emission factor

中图分类号:

U116.1

李宁海, 陈硕, 梁肖, 田佩宁. 我国交通运输业碳达峰时间预测[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(1): 2-13.

LI Ninghai, CHEN Shuo, LIANG Xiao, TIAN Peining. Prediction of Transportation Industry Carbon Peak in China[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2024, 24(1): 2-13.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2024.01.001

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2024/V24/I1/2

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