基于级联失效的西部陆海新通道网络脆弱性分析

doi:10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2024.06.003

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2024, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (6): 15-29.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2024.06.003

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇下一篇

基于级联失效的西部陆海新通道网络脆弱性分析

冯芬玲^*，董开云，张泽，方源

中南大学，交通运输工程学院，长沙410075

收稿日期:2024-06-29 修回日期:2024-09-25 接受日期:2024-10-12 出版日期:2024-12-25 发布日期:2024-12-17
作者简介:冯芬玲(1973- )，女，河北邯郸人，教授，博士。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(52272326)；湖南省自然科学基金(2022JJ30765)。

Analysis of Vulnerability for New Western Land-sea Corridor Network Based on Cascading Failures

FENGFenling^*,DONG Kaiyun,ZHANG Ze,FANGYuan

School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China

Received:2024-06-29 Revised:2024-09-25 Accepted:2024-10-12 Online:2024-12-25 Published:2024-12-17
Supported by:
NationalNaturalScienceFoundation of China (52272326)；Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China (2022JJ30765)。

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 西部陆海新通道涉及多个港口和货运站点，且通道内节点与线路易受各类风险事件影响，并伴随其导致的货流在节点间转移从而引发网络的级联失效，使通道呈现一定的脆弱性。因此，本文基于西部陆海新通道内存在的不同运输方式构建相应的子网络，复合叠加地理距离较近的节点，构建西部陆海新通道复合运输网络；其次，基于改进的相关性赋权法—优劣解距离法(CRITIC-TOPSIS)识别网络关键致脆节点，建立更符合真实复杂系统特性的非线性负载—容量的级联失效模型，设定网络连通度与网络过载效率指标测算网络脆弱性变化幅度；最后，对网络进行脆弱性仿真模拟，比较分析不同参数与策略设定对网络脆弱性的影响。仿真结果表明：西部陆海新通道复合运输网络能够有效体现各子网络之间的互补作用，相比于各运输子网络，在受到攻击后，网络的脆弱性水平显著降低；基于节点致脆度的蓄意攻击策略比其他节点攻击策略能使网络以更快的速度崩溃，失效节点数为10时，复合运输网络的脆弱性指标已下降99%，网络达到近乎崩溃的速度最快；在一定范围内调节容量系数可以有效降低西部陆海新通道复合运输网络的脆弱性水平，当容量冗余系数α≥4和β≥1.4，过载容量系数γ≥0.3时，网络对不同攻击策略的扰动抵抗能力较强，网络脆弱性水平较低。

关键词: 综合运输, 脆弱性分析, 复杂网络, 西部陆海新通道, 级联失效

Abstract: The New Western Land-Sea Corridor encompasses multiple ports and stations, rendering it vulnerable to risky events that can trigger cascading failures through goods transfer across nodes. This paper first constructs sub networks based on distinct transportation modes and integrates geographically adjacent nodes to form a comprehensive transportation network. Subsequently, it identifies critical nodes contributing to network vulnerability using an enhanced CRITIC-TOSIS method. A nonlinear load-capacity cascading failure model is then developed to assess network vulnerability changes through connectivity and overload efficiency indicators. A vulnerability simulation of the network is conducted to compare and analyze the impact of various parameters and strategy settings on network vulnerability. The results reveal that: (1) the composite transportation network significantly reduces vulnerability compared to individual sub-networks under attack; (2) an intentional attack strategy focusing on node vulnerability leads to rapid network collapse, with a 99% decrease in the vulnerability index upon the failure of 10 nodes; (3) adjusting capacity coefficients within a specific range can effectively mitigate network vulnerability. When the capacity redundancy coefficient α≥4 , β≥1.4 and overload capacity coefficient γ≥0.3, the network exhibits robust resilience against diverse attack strategies, maintaining a low vulnerability level.

Key words: integrated transportation, vulnerability analysis, complex network, new western land-sea corridor; cascading failures

中图分类号:

U113

冯芬玲, 董开云, 张泽, 方源. 基于级联失效的西部陆海新通道网络脆弱性分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(6): 15-29.

FENGFenling, DONG Kaiyun, ZHANG Ze, FANGYuan. Analysis of Vulnerability for New Western Land-sea Corridor Network Based on Cascading Failures[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2024, 24(6): 15-29.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2024/V24/I6/15

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基于级联失效的西部陆海新通道网络脆弱性分析

Analysis of Vulnerability for New Western Land-sea Corridor Network Based on Cascading Failures

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