关键词: 公路运输, 碳排放, 自下而上模型, 汽车新能源化, 减排成本

Abstract: The promotion of new energy vehicles is an effective policy for reducing carbon emissions in the transportation industry. Assessing the carbon reduction outcomes and implementation costs of policies is of paramount significance. In this study, we construct a comprehensive bottom-up forecasting model for automotive carbon emissions, integrating vehicle stock prediction models and assessments of carbon reduction technology costs. We evaluate the carbon reduction potential and short-term expenses associated with five different levels of new energy vehicle penetration scenarios across four regions within Guangdong Province. The results indicate that within the current policy framework, a significant portion of vehicle fleet in Guangdong Province is expected to change to new energy vehicles by 2060. More aggressive policy implementations hold the potential to achieve the goal in 10 years earlier. Moreover, Guangdong Province is projected to achieve its carbon emissions peak in the automotive sector by 2030 under the existing policies, with a peak value of approximately 100 million tons. The Pearl River Delta region (excluding Guangzhou and Shenzhen) and non-Pearl River Delta regions are identified as key areas for carbon reduction work. Across most scenarios, private cars, other passenger vehicles, and taxis are the primary contributors for carbon emission reductions. The short-term cost analysis reveals that, comparative to a fixed policy scenario, all scenarios exhibit lower cumulative carbon reduction costs and unit carbon reduction costs in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. However, higher costs are observed in the Pearl River Delta region (excluding Guangzhou and Shenzhen) and non-Pearl River Delta regions.

Key words: highway transportation, carbon emissions, bottom-up model, promotion of new energy vehicles, abatement cost