关键词: 航空运输, 空中交通量, 长期预测, 灰色预测, 组合预测, 预测模型

Abstract: The long-term forecasting of national-wide civil aviation traffic provides basis for the airspace project planning. A gray combination forecasting model is put forward based on the GM (1, 1) forecast model and least squares principle. With the historical data analysis of the national-wide air traffic from the year 1985 to 2008, the forecasting applicability is examined with three different methods, such as the time series forecasting, regression forecasting, and neural-network forecasting. After analyzing the characteristics of Chinese national-wide civil aviation traffic data and contrasting forecasting result, the gray combined forecasting model produces the best effect among these forecasting models.

Key words: air transportation, air traffic volume, long-term forecasting, grey forecasting, combined forecasting, forecasting model